What Will Trump's Game Plan Be In High-Stakes Call With Putin?

WASHINGTON -- Mainstream Washington has often fretted over encounters between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin.

The US leader has shown an affinity for the authoritarian Kremlin ruler that has stumped critics and even some allies, leading many to wonder whether the crafty former KGB colonel may use flattery and other means to get his way on issues.

Now, as Trump prepares to speak with Putin in a high-stakes call on March 18 about ending the war in Ukraine, the world is waiting to see whether he will stand his ground and demand an unconditional temporary cease-fire or acquiesce to some of Russia's demands.

For Ukraine, much is at stake, including its territorial integrity.

"It is important that President Trump stick to his guns and insist on a clean cease-fire. And if the Russians don't, he needs to be ready to implement the promises he made to increase pressure on Moscow," John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russian Program at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told RFE/RL.

Ukraine on March 11 accepted Trump's proposal for a 30-day, unconditional cease-fire, putting the ball for halting the more than three-year full-scale war squarely in Putin's court.

In a news conference in Moscow three days later, the Russian leader sought to politely punt the ball over to Trump, telling the world that while he agreed with the US president's proposal in principle, he wanted certain issues addressed before agreeing to any deal.

Putin said he is concerned Ukraine could use the pause in fighting to mobilize, train, and rearm at a time when his forces have the advantage on the battlefield.

He also questioned how the more than 1,000-kilometer front would be monitored during a cease-fire and wanted peace talks to consider the "reality on the ground," namely Russia's control of Ukrainian land.

Experts have been warning for some time that Putin is only interested in ending the war on his terms, including fully occupying four Ukrainian territories Russia claims to have annexed in 2022, disarming Kyiv, and keeping the country out of NATO.

Speaking at an annual geopolitical conference in New Delhi on March 18, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated Kyiv's belief that it could "achieve long-lasting, just peace" with Trump's leadership and was waiting for an "unconditional yes for a cease-fire" from Russia.

"Our approach: Now is a time for diplomacy, for strong diplomacy," Sybiha said.

In an interview with Current Time, Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said that a potential negative outcome from the Putin-Trump phone would be if Putin persuaded Trump to exert "a new wave of pressure on Ukraine, with the aim of extracting more concessions from Ukraine before beginning the negotiations."

At the same time, said Fesenko, it will be a priority for Putin "to preserve the potential for future negotiations with Trump," giving him an incentive for talks that show progress.

"What is important to understand: political declarations about readiness for a cease-fire or the beginning of talks on a cease-fire does not mean a cease-fire itself," Fesenko said.

"For a cease-fire you don’t need politicians to sit around a table and say something, but rather military representatives from both warring countries, with mediators of course, [who] should agree on the line of contact. And that is very difficult when the front is very unstable – it is changing every day in some sections."

Trump has made ending the war as soon as possible a top priority for his administration and, with Moscow and Kyiv so far apart in their demands, some fear Trump could pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make more compromises than Putin.

Prior to starting cease-fire talks, the US president said he objected to Ukraine's NATO membership and said Kyiv will have to forfeit land -- seemingly conceding to Putin on two key demands -- though Trump has not agreed to them as a precondition for the cease-fire deal.

The Russian leader believes he is winning the war and that time is on his side, so he will seek to drag out talks on a cease-fire rather than reject the proposal outright so as not to irritate Trump, experts have said.

Nonetheless, Trump has expressed optimism about the upcoming call, telling reporters late on March 16 that "a lot of work's been done over the weekend" to achieve a cease-fire.

Trump dispatched his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow to meet with Putin last week in preparation for the March 18 call.

Trump said he would be discussing with Putin both "land" and "power plants," the latter a possible reference to Europe's largest nuclear power plant that Russia controls in Ukraine.

"I think we have a lot of it already discussed very much by both sides, Ukraine and Russia. We're already talking about that, dividing up certain assets," Trump said.

"I think we have a very good chance" to bring the war to an end, he said.

John Herbst, the former ambassador to Ukraine from 2003-06 and an analyst at the Atlantic Council, told RFE/RL that the rhetoric coming from the Kremlin doesn't jibe with the upbeat view from the White House.

Russia hasn't given any signs it is ready to make concessions, Herbst said.

'A Good Thing'

Ian Bremmer, founder of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a March 17 video statement posted on X that Trump's push for a cease-fire was an "important thing to do" considering Ukraine's struggles on the battlefield.

Russia has been on the march in eastern Ukraine since late 2023 -- following Ukraine's failed counteroffensive -- despite large-scale losses in men and material. With Russia possessing a significant manpower advantage, some military experts say they don't see a path for Ukraine to regain its territory.

"We would be better off today had [former President Joe] Biden been more willing to push Zelenskyy and push the European allies and show that America recognized that Ukraine was weakening in their position vis-a-vis Russia, and that the war was only leading to more expense and more lives being lost on both sides," Bremmer said.

Using Trump's terminology, Bremmer said the US president with the backing of allies holds the cards in these negotiations but cautioned that Putin can play a weak hand well.

Hardie shared that concern, saying Putin will try to use the call "to shape" Trump's views of the conflict with disinformation. He pointed out that Trump last week repeated Putin's exaggerated claim that Ukrainian forces in Kursk were surrounded by Russian forces.

It wasn't the first time Trump uttered a Putin talking point following conversations with the Kremlin leader.

At the same time, Trump has also talked tough on Russia. He has threatened to impose tariffs and sanctions on the country if the Kremlin did not agree to the cease-fire. But he has not publicly stated a time frame, giving the Kremlin some wiggle room to negotiate.

Chief among the tools in his box are oil sanctions, Hardie said.

Trump could lower the $60 price cap imposed by the United States and European Union in 2022 on Russian oil exports shipped using Western vessels or insurance. The US president could also sanction more of Russia's own oil tanker fleet. Oil exports fuel Russia's economy and defense spending, accounting for about a third of federal budget revenues.

Trump heavily criticized US military aid to Ukraine on the campaign trail, potentially limiting his ability to use weapon deliveries as leverage should Russia refuse the cease-fire proposal.

But Trump could tap the $3.8 billion for military support to Ukraine remaining from the $61 billion aid package passed last April, Hardie said. The US president could also structure aid as a loan, he said.