Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two major issues: NATO's new eastern flank operation and the likely winner of this year's Sakharov Prize.
Briefing #1: NATO's New Operation Eastern Sentry
What You Need To Know: Two days after an unprecedented drone incursion by Russia on Polish territory on September 10, NATO unveiled its response: Operation Eastern Sentry. The mission kicked off immediately on September 12 but will be fleshed out further in the coming weeks.
The whole idea, according to the military alliance, is to strengthen its posture, connectivity, and flexibility along NATO's entire eastern flank. While the focus right now is on Russia drones and geographically on Poland, it is multidomain -- meaning land, sea, and air forces are involved -- and is meant to plug gaps from the North Sea to the Black Sea.
It was made clear, however, that it will only be in NATO territory, meaning there are no plans to enter western Ukraine to protect the skies. While Kyiv would very much welcome such a move, and there is an argument for targeting Russian drones much earlier, many NATO allies are fearful this could bring them closer to a direct conflict with the Kremlin.
Deep Background: The key goal now is to move toward an integrated system. Previously, individual NATO allies conducted air policing in different locations, with NATO providing supplementary support on a case-by-case basis, depending on the threat assessment.
The idea now is to have more resources linked to each other across the entire eastern flank, be it missiles or anti-drone technology. It is inspired by a similar operation, Baltic Sentry, which was launched earlier this year as a response to a number of alleged undersea sabotage activities by Moscow in the Baltic Sea.
NATO officials RFE/RL has been in touch with on condition of anonymity view that operation as a success, pointing out there have been no recent attempts to sever cables or other infrastructure in the region. And while it will be trickier to prevent all drones from getting into NATO territory, the thinking here is a beefed-up presence will make "Russia think twice before testing again."
Eight countries have already joined Eastern Sentry and placed assets at the disposal of NATO's supreme allied commander (SACEUR) Alexus Grynkewich. More are expected to follow suit.
France was the first to come forward -- with three Rafale fighter jets, which are to be stationed in Poland, as well as an Airbus A400M military transport aircraft. Britain will have some of its Typhoon jets fly defense missions in Polish skies, and Germany has moved four of its Eurofighters closer to its eastern neighbor, ready to conduct sorties at any moment.
Italy and Denmark have both also signaled they will provide jets. Additionally, Copenhagen has deployed a military ship in the eastern Baltic Sea. Spain and Sweden will also contribute, while the Czech Republic is actually placing some special forces troops in Poland and sending three helicopters, as well.
Drilling Down:
- Two things stand out here. First, the lack of any new American assets being provided to Eastern Sentry so far. When asked about this at a press briefing, Grynkewich half-joked that "as far as US military assets [are concerned]…I'm right here, and I'm involved" before adding that "the United States commitment to the integrated military structure of the Alliance remains."
- The United States has more than 10,000 troops stationed in Poland, and that number could even increase. While there are widespread reports about Washington redeploying military personnel from Europe to Asian theaters, NATO officials who spoke to RFE/RL were adamant they have been given no indication troop numbers will be reduced on the eastern flank anytime soon.
- The second issue is that the commitment to Eastern Sentry has so far been very focused on expensive fighter jets and other costly equipment. This was one of the criticisms of the Polish and NATO response to the September 10 incursion: that multimillion-dollar fighter jets were used for protection against cheap drones.
- While some European officials admit that Warsaw wants "a show of force," others acknowledge this isn't economically sustainable in the long run. Or as one senior NATO official put it: "We, of course, recognize that the best way to defeat drones is not with a very expensive missile fired from a very, very expensive plane."
- Eastern Sentry is thus a sort of sudden measure until a potential "drone wall" can become a reality and complement what is already out there.
- NATO will be central to building such a system, and with the EU signaling readiness to fund it, the project looks likely to happen, but it is two to three years away in the best-case scenario.
- In the meantime, the military alliance is looking at Latvia's pioneering work with acoustic sensors that detect drones faster, as well as new munitions that allow aircraft to use cheaper weapons, both of which could happen rather quickly.
- Mobile fire teams are another model NATO could adapt from Ukraine's experience. Kyiv has been using these small, fast-moving units armed with machine guns or man-portable air-defense systems with increasing success on the battlefield.
- As Grynkewich put it when pressed by the media after unveiling Eastern Sentry: "It's time to take a fresh look at this. And we're always learning. NATO is a learning organization."
Briefing #2: Who Will Win This Year's Sakharov Prize?
What You Need To Know: The awards season is upon us -- at least when it comes to prizes of strong political resonance. All eyes will, of course, be on the Norwegian Nobel Committee when it announces the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize on October 10, especially as some countries have nominated US President Donald Trump. But there is another prestigious honor that will be announced this fall -- the annual Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the European Union's top human rights award.
While the American president has not been proposed for this 50,000 euro ($59,000) prize, many individuals and organizations from RFE/RL's coverage area were nominated, including Serbian student protesters, the Budapest Pride event, Polish-Belarusian journalist Andrzej Poczobut, and Georgian journalist Mzia Amaglobeli together with her country's pro-democracy movement. They are up against other nominees such as Palestinian journalists and development workers, and, rather controversially, the recently assassinated American conservative political activist Charlie Kirk.
Deep Background: The award is run entirely by the European Parliament. Created in 1988 in honor of the Russian scientist and dissident Andrei Sakharov, it has become one of the chamber's key public relations tools, with repressive regimes often lashing out at European lawmakers over some nominations and winners.
It is not uncommon for Sakharov Prize winners to go on to win the Nobel Peace Prize down the line, with examples including the Pakistani education activist Malala Yousafzai and the Congolese humanitarian Denis Mukwege.
The nominations -- which this year will be officially presented on September 23 at a joint session of the European Parliament's foreign affairs, development and human rights committees -- are usually put forward by the parliament's various political groups or at least 40 its members (MEPs). The deadline for these nominations passed last week, and the groups have already publicly communicated who their respective nominees are.
The September 23 event is essentially an occasion to make the public case for your nominee because the political jockeying about which three will be shortlisted -- and who the eventual winner will be -- starts now.
Drilling Down:
- Size also matters. The shortlisting happens on October 16 this year, when members of the European Parliament's foreign affairs and development committees will hold a secret vote on their favorite.
- It's strictly one member, one vote, and the three candidates who get the most support are the ones shortlisted. Since the ballot is secret, no one officially communicates the final result, but the media tend to get hold of the numbers and it tends to be tight. Normally less than a handful of ballots determines the final trio.
- Party discipline is key, with MEPs often pressured to vote for the candidate put forward by their political group. With membership of the two committees determined by the size of the political groups, it becomes a numbers game.
- Things are complicated further by nominees who aren't backed by a political group but rather by a collection of MEPs across the political spectrum. This makes everything rather unpredictable.
- That unpredictability often prevails all the way up until the final decision, which will be taken on October 22. This is not made by any committee, however, but by the European Parliament's Conference of Presidents, which consists of the president of the chamber, Roberta Metsola, and leaders of the eight political groups. The vote is secret as well and deliberations can be long, but again: The bigger the political group, the weightier its vote.
- Who will be shortlisted and who will be the eventual winner? Logic suggests it will be Andrzej Poczobut given he is backed by the largest group in the chamber, the center-right European People's Party (EPP).
- "They tend to get their way." as one European Parliament official recently put it to RFE/RL when discussing the prize. It helps Poczobut has also been nominated by the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the fourth-largest group. These two teamed up in 2024 to successfully promote the Venezuelan opposition politicians Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez for the Sakharov award.
- Officials from the EPP and the ECR told RFE/RL they believe a win for Poczobut could help him get released from prison, especially since Aleksandr Lukashenko's authoritarian regime has started to free political prisoners. The releases follow a sweeping crackdown on civil society and opposition activity after Belarus's disputed 2020 presidential election, which was widely condemned as rigged.
- But it is far from certain that Poczobut will get the nod. The second-biggest group, the center-left S&D, has put forward journalists and humanitarian aid workers in conflict zones represented by the Palestinian Press Association, the Palestine Red Crescent Society, and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.
- The more left-wing and smaller Left group has nominated a number of Palestinian journalists. If these two consolidated their respective nominations and chose a Palestinian individual or organization, they could potentially have the numbers to prevail.
- The numbers probably won't favor Budapest Pride, put forward by the Greens, who aren't much of a political force these days, nor the Serbian student protesters backed by the liberal Renew group, which is only the fifth-largest grouping. Charlie Kirk is also a nonstarter as he is favored by the smallest faction, the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations, which no other political family wants to cooperate with.
- One potential dark horse and a possible compromise choice is the jailed Georgian journalist Mzia Amaglobeli, who is backed by 61 MEPs from various political parties. Normally, that might not be enough to even get her shortlisted. But almost all political groups -- including both the EPP and S&D -- considered nominating her before opting for others.
- Amaglobeli is widely recognized and admired in the chamber. A Georgian has never won the prize before, and the house is keen to send a message to Tbilisi. It's a long shot, though, as political groups tend to be disciplined, but this year the race is more open than ever.
Looking Ahead
On September 26-27 the chiefs of defense of NATO's 32 member states meet in Riga, Latvia for their annual autumn gathering. The meeting will be closely watched by media considering both the recent incursion of Russian drones in Polish and Romanian airspace and the violation of Estonian airspace by a Russian fighter jet a few days later. The military alliance has beefed up the presence on its eastern flank, but expect a lot of questions about what more NATO can do to protect its citizens.
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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