Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at growing fears in Iran that failing to strike a deal with the United States will lead to Tehran becoming a bargaining chip in Washington’s dealings with Russia and European powers.
What You Need To Know
• Former Diplomat Urges Iran To Make A Deal With U.S.: Ali Majedi, a former ambassador to Germany, has warned Iran that if it fails to make a deal with the United States, it will likely find itself used as a bargaining chip in a potential deal between Washington, European powers, and Moscow. This comes as the growing likelihood of a U.S.-Russian rapprochement has fueled concerns in Tehran that Moscow might abandon Iran in favor of a good deal with the Donald Trump administration.
• Tehran Speeds Up Production Of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium: In its confidential quarterly report, which was seen by news agencies this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Tehran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity had increased by 92.5 kilograms to 274.8 kilograms. The IAEA described the significant increase as a “serious concern.” Experts say Iran is a short, technical step away from enriching uranium to 90 percent, which is considered weapons-grade level.
• Iranian Exiles Sue Ex-Shah's "Chief Torturer": Three Iranian exiles have filed a $225 million lawsuit against Parviz Sabeti in a U.S. federal court, alleging years of torture by the former high-ranking security official under the shah. In the 1970s, Sabeti served as deputy head of SAVAK, the notorious security and intelligence agency of Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The plaintiffs claim Sabeti played a key role in institutionalizing torture in Iran, setting the stage for the coercive interrogation methods later adopted by the Islamic republic.
The Big Issue
Negotiating With U.S. ‘Inevitable’
With the return of the Trump administration’s "maximum pressure" policy and Tehran's continued refusal to negotiate with Washington, Iran finds itself in a difficult spot.
Its economy is in poor shape, living costs are going up, and the United States is tightening the noose on Iran’s oil exports.
Majedi, a former Iranian diplomat, said in an op-ed on February 22 that the situation would only get worse for Tehran the longer it waited to directly engage the United States. Otherwise, Iran could be used as a bargaining chip in Washington’s dealings with not only Moscow but also European powers.
He warned that, if Iran fails to persuade Britain, France, and Germany (the E3) that reimposing UN sanctions on Tehran would be unproductive, the E3 might cooperate with Trump to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran in exchange for concessions on his stance regarding the Ukraine war.
“What is certain is that if we don’t negotiate, others will negotiate about us and will make deals over our interests,” he wrote. “Negotiating with America is ultimately inevitable.”
Why It Matters: UN sanctions against Iran were lifted under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
During his first term in office, Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran. His administration also tried to trigger the deal’s “snapback mechanism” to return UN sanctions against Iran, but that attempt failed.
While the nuclear deal is, for all intents and purposes, no longer in effect, it will formally expire in October 2025. What that means is that world powers only have a few months to “snap back” UN sanctions.
The E3 opposed Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and resisted his attempt to reimpose UN sanctions against Tehran. But they have in recent months expressed an openness to the possibility, particularly in light of Iran’s advancing nuclear program and its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
What's Being Said: Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a professor of political science at the Missouri University of Science and Technology, echoed Majedi’s sentiment in an interview with RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.
“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” he said.
But opponents of talks with Washington continue to insist there is nothing to be gained from negotiating with Trump.
Staunch critics of negotiations have pointed to Trump’s recent public rift with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as evidence that there is no point in talking to the U.S. president.
Specifically, they say the Ukraine mineral deal shows the extent of concessions that Trump expects.
The hardline Keyhan newspaper accused Zelenskyy of “handing over Ukraine’s minerals to Trump” while the conservative state-affiliated Mehr news agency claimed that “Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s fate is what [Iranian] liberals want for Iran.”
Expert Opinion: “This is a nudge to the Islamic republic’s leaders to seriously think about Iran’s situation on the international stage,” Boroujerdi said, referring to Majedi’s call for talks with Trump.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
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