Following state prosecutors in Bosnia-Herzegovina ordering the arrest of Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik, Republika Srpska has adopted a draft of a new constitution.
The new constitution would redefine the Serb entity as a state of the Serbian people, grant it the right to self-determination, and establish its own army.
These provisions would be directly in conflict with the Bosnian Constitution and the Dayton peace accords, which established Republika Srpska as one of Bosnia's two entities.
The situation has moved what some call the world’s most-complicated democracy closer to the brink, a place Dodik has brought it to before.
But it wasn’t always that way.
The 66-year-old's political career began in the context of a tumultuous period marked by the breakup of Yugoslavia and the subsequent Bosnian War (1992–1995).
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A Dangerous Gamble: What Is Going On In Bosnia?
He was elected prime minister of the Republika Srpska -- one of Bosnia-Herzegovina's two entities, the other being the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina -- for the first time in 1998 and served until 2001.
A 'Breath Of Fresh Air'
At the time, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright called Dodik a “breath of fresh air” and “a gentleman who seems determined to do the right thing in Bosnia.”
His political career has since included various roles, including the presidency of Republika Srpska from 2010 to 2018.
His rise to power is often attributed to his ability to navigate the volatile political landscape, appealing to nationalist sentiments and presenting himself as a strong advocate for Serbian interests in Bosnia.
Dodik was seen a moderate who advocated for cooperation with the international community and a supporter of the peace agreement known as the Dayton Accords.
However, as he consolidated power and faced various challenges, including economic difficulties and ethnic tensions, his stance shifted towards a more nationalist and confrontational rhetoric.
By the mid-2000s, Dodik began to embrace a more populist image, focusing on the assertion of Republika Srpska’s autonomy.
His government made headlines for its increasingly defiant positions against the central authorities in Sarajevo, and he often criticized the High Representative for Bosnia-Herzegovina, a position established by the Dayton Agreement to oversee the implementation of peace and reforms.
SEE ALSO: War Veterans In Bosnia Are Angry About How The War Is Being TaughtDodik's tactics included promoting the idea of a referendum on the independence of Republika Srpska, appealing to a voter base that felt marginalized in the post-war political framework.
Throughout his tenure, Dodik has faced criticism for authoritarian tendencies, undermining democratic institutions, and fostering a culture of political patronage.
His administration has been characterized by a media environment that suppresses dissent and curtails press freedoms.
Supporters argue that he has brought stability and development to the entity, while opponents charge that his leadership has deepened divisions among the country's ethnic communities and eroded the state's institutional integrity.
Over the decades, Dodik has enjoyed support from the Serbian authorities, both current and former.
Asked about his close relationship with Belgrade, Stefan Blagic from ReStart Srpska, which closely follows politics in Republika Srpska, said, "He has always been a virtuoso in that Machiavellian sense."
"That is why he has been swimming for so long and that is why he has outlived other presidents of Serbia in the political sense," Blagic added.
SEE ALSO: War Crimes Witnesses In Bosnia Are Being Threatened And Say They're Not Being ProtectedWhile he is in power, Dodik will have the support of Serbia, whoever is in power in Belgrade, Blagic said.
Support from Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, he added, means a lot to the Republika Srpska leadership and also suits Belgrade.
"I don't know what reason they would give each other up," Blagic said.
Nationalist, Populist Realignment
In recent years, as tensions have risen in the Balkans and across Europe, Dodik has increasingly aligned himself with more nationalist and populist governments, reflecting a broader shift in the region.
His rhetoric has often included threats to withdraw Republika Srpska from Bosnia's state institutions, signaling a provocative stance that raises concerns about the potential for renewed conflict. Additionally, he has formed alliances with figures like Vladimir Putin, indicating a shift towards closer ties with Russia.
The Office of the High Representative (OHR) oversees the implementation of civilian aspects of Dayton.
Dodik, who is currently under US and U.K. sanctions for actions that Western governments say are aimed at the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia, has refused to implement several orders from the OHR, leading to the current crisis.