What Comes Next: Iran's Options After US Strikes On Its Nuclear Sites
- By Kian Sharifi
US air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have upended the already tense standoff between Tehran, Washington, and Israel, raising urgent questions about what comes next -- and just how far Iran might go in its retaliation.
Tehran faces the difficult task of crafting a response that is neither too weak to appear powerless nor too forceful to risk further escalation.
Analysts warn that Iran's options are varied, but all carry significant risks of escalation.
"Iran could retaliate in a number of ways. First, and most obvious, is the option to attack US military bases in the region, especially Iraq," said Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group.
He told RFE/RL that the Iranians could either do this on their own or through the prominent Iraq-based Shi'ite militia Kataib Hezbollah.
While targeting US bases is a threat often voiced by Iranian military figures, the risks associated with the move are not lost on the Iranian authorities. That could explain why Fars news agency, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), on June 22 tried to suggest the US strikes were merely a distraction to goad Iran into attacking US bases and shift its attention away from Israel.
To read more, click here.
Israeli Strikes Continue Hitting Tehran
Several powerful explosions rocked the Iranian capital, Tehran, on June 23, as Israeli forces launched a new wave of precision strikes. The attacks targeted a range of military and security sites. The notorious Evin Prison and multiple buildings linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were reportedly hit. Watch here:
Iranian Attack Caught By Dashcam In Israel
A missile strike by Iran was captured on film by the dash camera of a car in Israel on June 23. The strike appeared to take place near a power station in Ashdod, Israel. No fatalities were reported, but disruptions of electricity supplies were reported in some areas.
Qatar, U.A.E. Close Airspace Amid Fears Of Iranian Reprisals
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have closed their airspace amid regional fears of Iranian reprisals.
Explosions Reported Over Doha As Iran Fires Missiles At US Air Base
Multiple explosions that authorities blamed on Tehran rocked Doha late on June 23, hours after Qatar and the United Arab Emirates closed their airspace amid regional fears of escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States.
"The Ministry of Defense announced that Qatari air defenses successfully intercepted a missile attack targeting Al Udeid Air Base," the government said in a statement. "Thanks to God and the vigilance of the armed forces personnel and the precautionary measures taken, the incident resulted in no deaths or injuries.
"The Ministry reaffirmed that the airspace and territory of the State of Qatar are safe and that the Qatari Armed Forces are always fully prepared to deal with any threat. The Ministry of Defense also advises citizens and residents to follow official sources for directives and the latest developments.”
Iran, which confirmed it had fired several missiles at an air base in Qatar, had earlier threatened to retaliate against US strikes on its Fordow nuclear plant the day before, mentioning US air bases in the region.
Ahead of the attack on Doha, the US and UK foreign offices had issued warnings to their respective citizens against possible attacks, urging them to shelter in place out of caution.
A Symbolic Strike Meant As A Climbdown. Will It Work?
- By Kian Sharifi
The Iranian missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was a highly symbolic act, carefully calibrated to send a message of resolve while avoiding a broader and more destructive conflict.
Iran explicitly stated that the number of missiles launched late on June 23 matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on Iranian nuclear sites, signaling its intent to deliver a proportional response rather than escalate the situation uncontrollably.
This symmetry in action highlights Iran's desire to demonstrate it will not leave attacks on its territory unanswered but also that it does not seek a full-scale war.
To read the full analysis, click here.
US Official Confirms Iran Attack On US Base In Qatar
- By RFE/RL
A spokesperson from the US Department of Defense confirmed to RFE/RL that Iran attacked the Al Udeid Air Base on June 23, adding there were no reports of casualties.
“I can confirm that Al Udeid Air Base was attacked by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles originating from Iran today," the official said.
"At this time, there are no reports of US casualties. We are monitoring this situation closely and will provide more information as it becomes available.”
US Military Says No Bases In Iraq Were Targeted By Iran Despite Early Reports
- By RFE/RL
A US military official told AP and Reuters that no US bases in Iraq were targeted by Iran but said a malfunctioning Iranian missile aimed at Israel triggered an alert in Iraq earlier in the day.
Initial reports on June 23 had erroneously indicated that along with the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the Iranian military had fired missiles toward a US facility in Iraq.
In a Truth Social post, US President Donald Trump President said no Americans or Qataris were harmed and “hardly any damage was done” in the attack on the sprawling Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, apparent retaliation for the US strikes on June 21 on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Many experts see Iran’s limited strike as a sign that Tehran was looking to deescalate the crisis, with Trump saying that Iran had alerted the United States prior to the attack on the base in Qatar.
Iran Foreign Minister: Not Looking To 'Expand Tensions' But Ready To Respond To Further US Actions
Iran's foreign minister on June 23 said Tehran's attack on a US military base in Qatar was in response to what he called US "aggression against Iran's territorial integrity and sovereignty” and that the country stood ready to respond to any further actions.
Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araqchi, said, "In the event of any further action by the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran will be ready to respond again,” according to a statement by Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
The ministry statement said that “Iran does not want to expand tensions in the region” but that it “considered our country's missile attack on the Al-Udeid military base as a response to the clear aggression of the United States against Iran's territorial integrity and national sovereignty.”
Abbas made the comments in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, following visits to Istanbul and Moscow as he looks to bolster support for Iran in the country's conflict with Israel.
US President Donald Trump said there were no injuries in what he called Iran's "very weak" attack on the base and that nearly all the missiles fired by Tehran were intercepted.
With Trump saying Iran had alerted the United States prior to the attack, many experts saw Iran’s limited strike as a sign that Tehran did not want to escalate the crisis.
Israel, Iran Issue Evacuations In Countdown To Reported Cease-Fire
The Iranian and Israeli militaries separately issued evacuation orders early on June 24, even as the sides were reportedly on the way to a phased-in cease-fire announced by US President Donald Trump.
Israel an immediate evacuation warning for an area in Tehran's 6th and 7th districts and then to residents of the Mehran area, RFE/RL's Radio Farda reported.
Earlier, Iran issued an evacuation warning to residents of Ramat Gan, a city in Israel’s Tel Aviv district, according to Iranian state media.
The Mehr news agency, in a posting on Telegram, said only that Iran warns “Israeli settlers to urgently evacuate” the region.
Israel has often issued evacuation warnings to residents in Iranian areas linked to military or nuclear sites prior air strikes.
AFP reported that warplanes were seen over Tehran and that explosions rocked parts of the city around 3 a.m. local time.
Trump announced a "complete and total" phased cease-fire in the conflict between Israel and Iran, due to begin early on June 24 "when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their" final actions.