US air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have upended the already tense standoff between Tehran, Washington, and Israel, raising urgent questions about what comes next -- and just how far Iran might go in its retaliation.
Tehran faces the difficult task of crafting a response that is neither too weak to appear powerless nor too forceful to risk further escalation.
Analysts warn that Iran's options are varied, but all carry significant risks of escalation.
"Iran could retaliate in a number of ways. First, and most obvious, is the option to attack US military bases in the region, especially Iraq," said Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group.
He told RFE/RL that the Iranians could either do this on their own or through the prominent Iraq-based Shi'ite militia Kataib Hezbollah.
While targeting US bases is a threat often voiced by Iranian military figures, the risks associated with the move are not lost on the Iranian authorities. That could explain why Fars news agency, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), on June 22 tried to suggest the US strikes were merely a distraction to goad Iran into attacking US bases and shift its attention away from Israel.
Another option, Clarke said, was getting Yemen's Houthi rebels to strike at the Persian Gulf Arab states, as occurred back in June 2019, when the group targeted Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure with drones, shutting down half of the kingdom's oil production.
One "concerning possibility" is Iran relying on asymmetric methods, such as an attack by sleeper cells in the United States linked to its proxies.
The Strait of Hormuz: Desperation Or Deterrence?
Amid a surge of rhetoric in Tehran about closing the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments -- US officials have issued stern warnings.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have both cautioned Iran against such a move, calling it "suicidal" given it would hurt Iran's own economy because it uses the waterway to export oil, mostly to China.
Some experts are skeptical Iran could meaningfully close the strait or that doing so would be sustainable.
Danielle Pletka, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told RFE/RL Iran lacks the capacity "to seriously close the Strait of Hormuz" and that ultimately it would harm Iran as well.
"What we would see is that the entire world would unite against Iran. If they try to do that, it will immediately bring in the United States," Pletka argued.
The move may "not win Tehran many friends in the world" but it could be one of Iran's last cards to play, according to Clarke.
"In some ways, it could be an act of desperation as they pull out all of the stops in an effort to get Israel to cease bombing," he said.
‘Already At War'
While senior US officials insist the strikes do not signal a declaration of war, they have made clear any Iranian retaliation will draw a forceful American response.
Fred Fleitz, a former chief of staff at the US National Security Council who spoke to RFE/RL before the United States carried out its attack, argued the notion of "retaliation" may mischaracterize the situation.
"Iran is already at war with the United States," he said. "This is a rogue state that's been at war with the US, with Israel, and with many other nations for a long time."
Tehran's next move could be consequential, with the stability of the region at stake.
"At this point, I think if the United States came under serious or sustained attack, all bets are off, and the bombing would expand and escalate," Clarke warned.
"The United States would essentially join Israel in destroying the regime and everything related to it."
