For each of the past three winters, Maria Morozova, her husband, and their daughter have prepared for tough conditions in eastern Ukraine created by Russia's war on its neighbor. But this year, they're bracing for the worst.
Moscow's campaign targeting energy infrastructure -- especially electricity production and an electrical grid that is battling to deliver power to millions of Ukrainians -- has knocked much of the country's power suppliers offline.
Ukraine's Energy Ministry said in October that generation capacity was around 17.6 gigawatts (GW), which is less than half the 38 GW before the war broke out in February 2022. And a cold winter, which is expected this year, could put consumption needs at around 18 GW.
"Luckily, we still have central heating," Morozova, 28, told RFE/RL from her hometown of Kamyanske in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region as she listed preparations for the winter, where temperatures can drop to minus 20 degrees Celsius.
"For electricity, we bought an inverter storage battery. Also, we have a generator on our balcony, but hopefully we won't have to use it, as it is too noisy."
Continued Russian Strikes, Blackouts
Russian strikes this week have already sparked power reductions to customers in several areas across the country, intensifying fears of what may come.
Power was reduced in most regions for eight to 16 hours on November 9, state energy provider Ukrenergo said, with more days following suit.
"The reason for the introduction of restrictions is the consequences of massive Russian missile and drone attacks on energy facilities," the company said.
"It is difficult to remember such a number of direct strikes on energy facilities since the beginning of the invasion," said Svitlana Hrynchuk, the energy minister who recently resigned.
In the northern town of Nizhyn, just a few hours from the Russian border, some families have been busily drawing up survival plans such as what to do if heating fails, where to collect firewood and coal, and how to create at least basic living conditions in subzero temperatures.
Nataliya, a resident of Nizhyn, told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that while her daughter has fled the country, she has chosen to stay. The only thing that would force her to leave her apartment, she says, is the complete loss of heating.
She says people in her neighborhood are already gathering supplies: stacking firewood, filling bottles with water, checking flashlights. Some families have drawn up plans to crowd into the few private houses that can still be warmed by wood stoves.
"If I had a private house, I would definitely help someone. Life does not stop even though attacks and shelling have increased," she says.
Preparing Homes, And Children, For The Dark
Morozova says almost everyone she knows has stocked up on candles and battery-powered lamps.
But, she adds, "it will be very hard if heating disappears. My family will have to move to my father's house, where we can have heating with wood."
When the electricity goes out, she and her husband tell their 4-year-old daughter: "Russia wants us to stay in the dark, and our engineers are trying to fix everything. We need to wait."
Morozova says that even if this winter turns out to be the worst one so far, people in Ukraine have become more experienced at coping with the cold during wartime.
Russia has been able to increase its attacks on energy infrastructure, according to Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, a think tank in Kyiv, because of Russia's increases in the production and capabilities of Shahed drones, while Ukraine has fewer air-defense systems than before.
Andriy Herus, chairman of the parliament's Energy Committee, says that although national power producer Ukrenergo has fortified 70 substations, "it is impossible to fully protect energy facilities from all attacks -- especially ballistic missiles."
Generators And Drones
In Kyiv, the loud hum of generators has become a constant companion on the streets. They appear in front of cafes, shops, and apartment blocks, often switched on within minutes of strikes cutting electricity.
"Sometimes it feels like a computer game -- so much noise at the same time," says Margarita Sytnyk, a former journalist and civic activist who lives in the capital.
"The generator noise is sometimes similar to Shaheds. I confuse them. It's not good; we may not hear the real drones and take precautions."
In her building, residents collected money to buy a generator, but she knows many families who cannot afford one. With prices rising and incomes shrinking, she says, "people with lower salaries simply have no way to prepare."
Like Nataliya in Nizhyn and Morozova in Kamyanske, Sytnyk in Kyiv says the only real plan is to lean on one another.
"If there is no heating, we'll go to work from offices that still have warmth," she says.
