A week after US President Donald Trump laid out the red carpet for his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, not much has changed in efforts to bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine.
The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska was followed by talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders in Washington that ended with a call for a face-to-face meeting between Putin and the Ukrainian president.
With Russia stalling on the meeting, what has emerged so far does not resemble a clear road map to peace but rather a portrait of negotiations defined by secrecy, distrust, and the risk of stalemate.
1. Some Progress On Security Guarantees For Ukraine
Washington and European countries have inched closer to defining what postwar security guarantees for Ukraine might look like.
US and European military planners have begun meetings to explore what the overall security package could be ahead of a final decision on it by political leaders.
This includes long-term weapons deliveries, intelligence-sharing, and joint defense planning. Trump has indicated US air power could be involved.
London, Paris, and Berlin have repeated their long-standing position that security guarantees must be tangible, or Moscow will treat any cease-fire as a temporary pause before the next offensive.
Russia has repeated its opposition to NATO forces in Ukraine.
2. Russia's Position Has Not Changed
While media reports have said Putin has pushed forward the idea of freezing the front lines in places, his larger objectives remain intact -- total control over Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, recognition of Crimea's annexation, and binding commitments that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Added to this are sweeping restrictions on Ukraine's armed forces.
These do not look like concessions but demands to institutionalize Kyiv's territorial losses and enshrine Ukraine's vulnerability.
The Kremlin's refusal, so far, to agree to a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy underlines how Russia has simply doubled-down on existing red lines.
For Kyiv, meanwhile, ceding land to Russia would not only be unconstitutional but politically and militarily damaging.
3. Washington's Reluctance To Commit
Following his two summits, Trump appears to be stepping back.
The US president already said in Washington that he did not necessarily need to be at a Putin-Zelenskyy summit and has since suggested that he might attend only after the Russian and Ukrainian leaders meet.
Trump has underscored that American troops will not be deployed in Ukraine, which was never really in doubt.
What exactly US "involvement" in security guarantees, and what kind of role its air force may take, also remains undefined at least in public.
Trump's stance reflects both strategic caution -- avoiding direct escalation with Russia -- and political calculation. The White House remains unenthusiastic about underwriting Europe's security architecture.
For Kyiv, this reflects a painful truth: Europe has pledged protection, but the United States may not back it up sufficiently.
4. Transatlantic Divisions
The Washington summit was a show of transatlantic unity, but divisions and distrust remain beneath the surface.
US Vice President JD Vance was silent when Zelenskyy met Trump in front of the cameras in the Oval Office. But in a later Fox News interview, he said he had warned Zelenskyy, “Mr. President, so long as you behave, I won’t say anything.”
The interview recalled the heated exchange from Zelenskyy's last visit in February, suggesting old antagonisms have not entirely been forgotten.
Meanwhile, CBS reported on August 21 that Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard issued a directive in July classifying all intelligence related to peace negotiations as "NOFORN" -- for US use only, barred even from the Five Eyes group.
Five Eyes brings together the United States with Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand in intelligence sharing.
To exclude them on such a sensitive issue would leave key allies without US insights as work on security guarantees intensifies.
5. Russia's Attacks Have Continued
Meanwhile, Russia's attacks have continued unabated.
On August 21, Zelenskyy denounced Russia for launching hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles in a massive overnight assault, calling Moscow's behavior proof it had no interest in ending the conflict.
"They are trying to wriggle out of holding a meeting. They don't want to end this war," he declared.
While diplomats, including Russian officials, talk about dialogue, Russian forces continue to shell Ukrainian cities, killing and injuring civilians, including children, and destroying vital infrastructure.
