The United States has spent years trying to convince Arab Gulf countries that normalization with Israel will stabilize the Middle East and contain the threat posed by Iran.
But Israel’s brazen military strike in Qatar, a key US ally and home to the largest American military base in the Middle East, has threatened to upend the US-backed efforts.
The September 9 attack in central Doha, the Qatari capital, targeted the political leadership of US- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Six people were killed, including a member of Qatar’s security services.
The strike has been widely condemned in Gulf capitals, where attitudes toward Israel have already soured over the country’s direct conflict with Iran in June and its devastating war in the Gaza Strip.
The Gaza war was triggered by Hamas's terror attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, that killed some 1,200 people. The Palestinian group is believed to still be holding dozens of Israeli hostages.
“We’re witnessing both a hardening of public opinion in the Gulf and growing unease among Gulf leaders over the perception that Israel is now acting without restraint -- ignoring red lines that were once respected,” said Michael Horowitz, an independent analyst based in Israel.
It is unclear how the Gulf states will respond. Many are close US allies which depend on Washington for their security.
“This situation is distinct in one key respect: Israel is a close US ally,” said Horowitz. “That changes the calculus. For Gulf leaders, the real concern may not be Israel alone, but the perceived absence of US leadership in setting limits or enforcing consequences. That gap is likely to shape how the Gulf states respond going forward.”
Double-Edged Sword For Tehran
The attack in Qatar is a double-edged sword for Iran, Israel’s archenemy, experts said.
“What happened strengthens Iran’s narrative that Israel is a threat to the whole region and has nothing to do with [Tehran] and its allies in the axis of resistance,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
The so-called axis of resistance is Iran’s regional network of proxies and armed groups -- which includes Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Huthi rebels -- against Israel and the United States.
Israel’s attack in Qatar could also help deepen Iran’s rapprochement with the Gulf states, which have previously had hostile relations with Tehran.
“At the same time, [the Qatar attack] increases the threat perception on the Iranian side,” Azizi added. “That, if this is happening to Qatar, which is a major non-NATO ally of the US, then what is going to happen to us?”
During the 12-day war in June, Israel and the United States launched a bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, killing some 1,000 people. Iran responded by firing missile barrages at Israel, killing several dozen people.
The cease-fire that ended the conflict is fragile, experts said, and the risk of renewed hostilities or a dangerous escalation remains high.
