The United Nations is set to reimpose wide-ranging sanctions on Iran over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.
The move comes a month after France, Germany, and Britain triggered a 30-day process to restore global sanctions on Iran -- known as snapback -- that ends on September 27.
Punitive measures on Iran were lifted as part of a 2015 deal with world powers aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. European signatories of the accord accuse Tehran of violating the agreement.
Which Sanctions Will Return?
The snapback sanctions include a UN conventional arms embargo, restrictions on activities related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, a ban on enriching and reprocessing uranium, and a global asset freeze and travel bans on Iranian individuals and entities.
Besides targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, the sanctions would also hit Tehran’s key oil industry, transport and shipping, and the financial and banking sectors.
What Will Be The Impact On Iran?
The snapback sanctions will add to the existing punitive measures against Iran.
President Donald Trump in 2018 withdrew Washington from the nuclear deal and reimposed crippling sanctions that have constrained Iran's economy and oil exports.
Iranian officials have downplayed the impact of the return of UN sanctions. But experts said renewed sanctions would deepen the pain for Iran on several fronts.
“The impact of snapback sanctions is already being felt in Iran, with the rial continuing to weaken against the dollar amid worsening pessimism in the business community,” said Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group.
Brew said snapback will worsen Iran's bargaining position with China, Tehran’s main customer of oil, which is subject to U.S. sanctions.
Iran’s economy is heavily reliant on oil revenues, and Tehran sells more than 90 percent of its oil exports to China at a discounted price.
“With UN sanctions reimposed, Chinese refiners will be able to demand a steeper discount on Iranian oil, which will hit Iran's oil revenues,” said Brew.
How Will Iran Respond?
Iranian lawmakers have for months threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if UN sanctions are restored, although Tehran is unlikely to follow through, experts said.
The treaty bans non-nuclear countries from acquiring nuclear weapons and obliges nuclear powers to disarm.
“An exit from the NPT would be a provocative step that would signal a potential weaponization of the nuclear program, inviting renewed Israeli attack,” said Brew.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian -- considered a moderate by many but with limited powers -- said Tehran had no plans to leave the NPT.
In June, Israel and the United States launched a bombing campaign targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, killing some 1,000 people. Iran responded by firing missile barrages at Israel, killing several dozen people.
Iran has signaled it will further reduce cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog -- the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) -- if sanctions are restored. The body monitors and inspects Iran's nuclear program.
Another step Iran could take, experts said, is to test new ballistic missiles whose range exceed the 2,000-kilometer limit imposed by Tehran itself.
The Islamic republic has adhered to that cap since at least 2017 seemingly to avoid appearing a threat to European security.
Even if the UN reimposes sanctions, Iran is unlikely to completely abandon diplomacy, experts said.
“It cannot afford to do so, as achieving a deal that brings sanctions relief remains a priority,” said Brew.
That’s despite little scope for a breakthrough.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on September 23 publicly rejected negotiations with the United States and said Tehran would not negotiate with European powers.
Iran also does not yet appear to be willing to make the kind of concessions needed to unlock the impasse over its nuclear program.
