Balochistan, a vast mineral-rich province in southwestern Pakistan, has been the scene of a simmering separatist insurgency for nearly a quarter-century.
But a remarkable rise in violent attacks in the strategic region bordering Afghanistan and Iran and home to the marginalized Baluch minority has highlighted the region's fragility.
On March 16, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist militant group pursuing Balochistan's secession from Pakistan, claimed an attack on security forces in the remote district of Noshki.
Pakistani officials said the attack, a suicide truck bomb, killed three soldiers and two civilians. But the BLA claimed the attack killed 90 soldiers.
Train Hijacking
Just last week, the group declared a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, and others hijacked a passenger train in Balochistan's historic Bolan Pass.
The unprecedented attack, even by the standards of Pakistan's violent recent past, went on for more than 36 hours.
SEE ALSO: Fate Of More Than 100 Pakistani Train Hostages Unknown Amid Contradictory ClaimsThe BLA claimed it killed hundreds of members of the security forces traveling on the train.
The Pakistani Army, however, said it killed dozens of militants in a successful rescue operation that freed most of the hostages.
RFE/RL could not independently verify the conflicting claims of the two sides in the sparsely populated region inaccessible to journalists.
But the rising violence marked a significant escalation at a critical time for Pakistan as the Muslim nation of 250 million people reels from political turmoil, economic downturn, and an escalating insurgency by the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State-Khorasan in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.
A bus with passengers sitting on the roof drives past a damaged vehicle, the day after separatist militants conducted deadly attacks in the Bolan district of Balochistan.
"The major drivers of the worsening conflict are changes within the BLA and the worsening political and economic crises," said Zafar Baloch, a Balochistan researcher based in Britain.
"The current outcome was predictable because the BLA has transformed," he said.
He said that during the past seven years, the BLA turned from a nationalist insurgent group into "a highly sophisticated, disciplined militant group, which now possesses sophisticated arms."
Pakistani officials have frequently blamed the easy availability of sophisticated US arms left behind in Afghanistan. Groups such as the BLA and TTP now use sophisticated night-vision goggles, sniper rifles, and other military gear possibly acquired from Afghanistan.
Since the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, violence by both the Baluch separatist rebels and Islamist TTP has been on the rise.
Pakistan has blamed Afghanistan's Taliban government and its regional archrival India for the rising violence. Kabul and New Delhi have rejected Islamabad's claims.
SEE ALSO: Pakistan Slides Into New 'Era Of Terrorism'During the past year, Baluch separatists carried out 175 attacks, up from 110 the year before. These attacks killed and injured nearly 700 people, most of whom were members of the security forces.
Imtiaz Baloch, an analyst covering Balochistan for Khorasan Diary, a website tracking militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said the BLA's increasing organizational sophistication is behind the rising violence.
He said the Majeed Brigade, the BLA's suicide squad, which works under its central command led by its leader Bashir Zeb, is now capable of planning and conducting sophisticated attacks.
"Their intelligence-gathering capacity has increased, which results in meticulous planning for attacks such as taking an entire train hostage," he said.
"Now they appear capable of successfully laying traps for the security forces," he said.
Increasingly Sophisticated Attacks
In addition to the Majeed Brigade, the BLA claims to have separate guerrilla, special forces, and intelligence units that have launched increasingly sophisticated attacks against Pakistani troops and Chinese workers involved in numerous infrastructure, energy, and mineral extraction projects in Balochistan.
Baloch, the analyst in Islamabad, argues the Pakistani government's failure to win over Balochistan's alienated residents through a genuine political process and dispensing justice has harmed its legitimacy in the impoverished region where literacy and development levels are low.
"The state is unable to connect to and address the problems of ordinary citizens," he said.
A passenger, who was rescued from a train after it was attacked by separatist militants receives medical aid at the railway station in Mach, Balochistan, on March 11.
Experts maintain that Balochistan's political crises have been extenuated by Islamabad's strategy of supporting figures loyal to the military over ethno-nationalist parties that hold genuine popularity among the Baluch populace.
However, these Baluch political parties, whose leaders have led most elected provincial governments since the 1970s, lost controversial parliamentary elections in February 2024.
The Baluch parties accused Islamabad of widespread rigging in the province.
Sarafaz Bugti, a Baluch politician supported by the military, promised to defeat militant groups by promoting good governance and bringing development to Balochistan.
But a year later, violence in Balochistan is mounting, which has added to public skepticism of Islamabad's promises.
"The Baluch have given up on parliamentary politics, which has increased the lure of groups such as the BLA for the youth," said Baloch, the researcher in Britain.