During their fiery blow up at the Oval Office, US President Donald Trump told his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that “you don’t have the cards right now.”
Trump’s comment last month referred to Kyiv’s perceived weak hand in the face of battlefield gains by Russia and a White House eager to bring the three-year war to an end.
SEE ALSO: Europe Pushes For Lasting Peace, But Can Russia's Battlefield Momentum Be Halted?Now, as Zelenskyy arrives in Saudi Arabia -- where a Ukrainian negotiating team will then engage in high-stakes talks with US officials on March 11 about a potential peace deal -- Kyiv’s cards will be on full display.
“Ukraine has the weakest hand at the table,” said Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “As Trump and his emissaries have made clear, Washington is not inclined to indefinitely support Kyiv.”
SEE ALSO: Ukraine Live Briefing: Zelenskyy Heads To Riyadh Ahead Of Crunch TalksSince that White House argument in late February, Washington has upped the pressure on Ukraine, pausing military aid and suspending intelligence sharing. A crucial US-Ukraine minerals deal also remains unsigned.
Trump has expressed optimism about the talks, telling reporters that “we’re going to make a lot of progress, I believe, this week.” Zelenskyy said before traveling to Saudi Arabia that he will “continue to work for the sake of peace.”
SEE ALSO: Russia Steps Up Attacks, Battlefield Gains As Trump Questions Ukraine's Survival“Now comes time for a new round of betting,” said Froman. “What is Ukraine’s bottom line, both with the United States and with Russia? What American chips is Trump willing to wager to strike not just any deal, but a deal that creates a just and durable peace?”
Who Will Be At US-Ukraine Talks?
The one-day talks in Saudi Arabia will be the first meetings between Ukrainian and US officials since Zelenskyy’s tense White House visit.
They also come nearly a month after US and Russian officials held talks in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, about ending the war in Ukraine -- without the presence of Kyiv.
SEE ALSO: Baltic Countries Feel Aftershocks From US Suspension of Ukraine Military AidThe Ukrainian president will travel to Saudi Arabia and meet with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman on March 10.
The Ukrainian negotiating team will stay in the country to meet with their American counterparts the next day. Kyiv’s delegation will include Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
The US-Ukraine talks will take place in the Saudi city of Jeddah. The American negotiating team will be led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and include US national-security adviser Mike Waltz.
SEE ALSO: What We Learned From High-Stakes U.S.-Russia Talks In Saudi ArabiaTrump’s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, who attended the Riyadh talks, was slated to attend. But reports now indicate that he may travel to Qatar for talks over the fragile Israeli-Hamas cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.
What Does The US Want From Ukraine At The Talks?
Trump has said Ukraine is running out of manpower and resources, and that it needs to quickly come to the negotiating table with Russia.
A central focus of the talks in Jeddah will be US and Ukrainian officials gauging what kind of peace process is possible.
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How Important Is US Intelligence Sharing For Ukraine's War Effort?
Witkoff said last week that he hoped to discuss a "framework" for a potential cease-fire and peace deal during the talks.
US officials will also be looking to see where Kyiv is willing to compromise. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has called for the return of all its territory and the complete withdrawal of Russian forces.
Comments by Trump and other US officials indicate that this position is not seen as realistic in the White House.
Sequencing for the peace process to achieve a deal could also be on the table, including issues such as an early cease-fire to establish trust, prisoner exchanges, and potentially, at some point, elections in Ukraine.
SEE ALSO: Ukraine's Opposition Leaders Reject Holding Wartime ElectionsAhead of the talks, Serhiy Leshchenko, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, said at a press conference that Kyiv is prepared to accept a cease-fire for air attacks and at sea, but not yet for fighting on the battlefield.
"You want a truce — we are ready," he said. "However, not on land, where [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will be able to take a truce for several months: treat the wounded, recruit infantry in North Korea , and then resume this war."
In exchange for concessions from Ukraine, the Trump administration could look to restore the flow of military aid and intelligence-sharing.
Trump said on March 9 that the United States had “just about” ended its suspension of sharing intelligence with Ukraine, indicating that it could resume with a positive result in Saudi Arabia.
Does Ukraine Have Any Bargaining Power?
Zelenskyy has been under strong US pressure to make concessions ahead of any peace talks and has been pushing for firm security guarantees for Kyiv, which he so far has not received.
US special envoy Keith Kellogg described the mounting pressure brought by the cutoff of military supplies and halt in intelligence cooperation as “hitting a mule with a 2x4 across the nose."
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Special EU Summit 'Watershed Moment' For European Security
Also hanging over the meeting in Jeddah is the fate of the minerals deal between the United States and Ukraine. Kyiv wanted to include a clear US security guarantee in exchange for access to certain mineral resources in Ukraine, a demand rejected by Washington.
That agreement was put on ice during Zelenskyy’s Washington visit, but both sides have expressed a renewed willingness to sign the deal. Ahead of the upcoming talks, Trump said he thought Ukraine would sign it.
SEE ALSO: Russia Turns To Cuban Recruits As It Struggles With Conscription, RFE/RL RevealsDuring his recent interview, Kellogg indicated that this may be Kyiv’s best option.
“If the United States has direct economic interest in Ukraine, then the United States has a direct and vested interest to protect its economic interests as well – which serves, in fact, as a de facto … security guarantee for Ukraine,” he said.
What About Russia?
Russia will not be at the table in Saudi Arabia this time, but what Moscow is willing to concede -- if anything -- is a question also hanging over the US-Ukraine meetings.
Zelenskyy has said that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want peace, and stressed that the Russian leader has violated previous cease-fire deals.
SEE ALSO: Exclusive: Russian Soldier On Trial In Ukraine Over Alleged Battlefield ExecutionUkraine's European allies have argued that Kyiv can only strike a deal with Russia from a position of strength and that Ukraine should not be rushed to the negotiating table.
Despite those considerations, Ukraine is under pressure to compromise and any corresponding moves by the United States to push Moscow to make concessions has not been made public.
Thomas Graham, a former Russia director for the National Security Council under President George W. Bush who maintains contact with officials in Moscow, says that “the Kremlin has not budged from its maximal demands for ending the conflict.”
SEE ALSO: Don't Expect Quick Ukraine Deal, Says Russian Expert Back From MoscowMoscow continues to push for keeping Ukraine out of NATO, recognition of the Ukrainian territory it occupies, Ukraine’s demilitarization, and lifting Western sanctions against Russia’s economy.
“The Kremlin welcomes more sequential steps that erode Ukraine’s position, such as the US decision to suspend arms shipments to Ukraine, which a Kremlin spokesperson called ‘the best contribution to the cause of peace,’” said Graham.