US Arms Deal With NATO Still Leaves Ukraine In Limbo

Earlier in July, an agreement was reached for European NATO allies to purchase American weapons, including Patriot missiles, for Ukraine. While Germany recently announced that two Patriots would head to Kyiv shortly, questions remain if this deal really will give Ukraine what it needs in the months ahead.

The deal, announced by US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Washington, D.C., on July 14, is essentially a continuation of what has been the modus operandi for Western allies since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine over three years ago: the Europeans send military equipment they already have to Kyiv and then replenish their stock with new weapons -- mainly American ones.

The big difference now, though, is that the Europeans must considerably step up weapons deliveries to Ukraine, with the Trump administration so far not providing any new pledges. (Deliveries promised during the Biden administration are still continuing, however.)

To an extent, the Europeans have ramped up production to fill the gap, with the German-based Kiel Institute noting that for the first time since June 2022, Europe has surpassed the United States in total military aid to Ukraine with 72 billion euros ($83 billion), compared to 65 billion euros coming from Washington.

Increased NATO Defense Spending

The question for Ukraine and its allies is how viable the proposed mechanism will be. In the long run, the Europeans will have to buy more weapons after having pledged to spend 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense by 2034 at the NATO summit in the Hague in June. Arms destined for Ukraine will be a key part of this spending.

A diplomat from an EU country, speaking anonymously to RFE/RL, said the July Washington deal is the best way to keep the "Americans engaged in Ukraine in particular and in Europe in general," as the United States will benefit from the expected European defense splurge.

And while Europe is keen to invest in its own defense sector, this will take time. Europeans leaders have decided it's better to buy American at least in the short term.

"It's either that or leave Ukraine without weapons," one NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity as they aren't authorized to speak on the record, told RFE/RL. "I think on the European side there is a hard realization that this has to happen in some fashion or another."

On July 21, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an alliance of over 50 countries including all NATO member states and several non-NATO partners, met online for the first time since the Washington deal was announced.

At the meeting of the group, which has been the key coordinator of Western arms deliveries to Kyiv, as many as seven countries expressed interest in buying American weapons for Ukraine. Those countries included Canada, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and some of the Nordic nations.

Six European countries operate Patriot missile defense systems.

On August 5, the Netherlands became the first NATO country to fund a full package under the new scheme when it announced a military aid package for Ukraine worth $500 million of American weapon systems, including parts for Patriot missiles.

"The Netherlands is now taking the lead in supplying military equipment from American stockpiles," Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said.

"By supporting Ukraine with determination, we are increasing the pressure on Russia to negotiate."

The idea is that the Contact Group, which is also known as the Ramstein group, is that Ukraine would provide a detailed "wish list" of what it needs, focusing in particular on air defense and ammunition. NATO in turn would provide an estimate of how much such military hardware would cost to purchase. More clarity is expected when the Ramstein group assembles again in the fall, possibly in Ukraine for the first time.

The main question now is how quickly the military hardware can be delivered to Ukraine. European countries are expected to supply 2 million 155-millimeter artillery shells this year, and with Ukraine beginning domestic production supported by Western funding, the gap caused by the absence of American exports could be covered.

Patriots In Demand

But with air defense, it's a different story. And it's here that Ukraine still needs American arms, notably Patriot surface-to-air missiles.

The European alternative to the Patriot missile defense system, the French-Italian SAMP-T, has been provided to Kyiv, with Rome recently announcing a third battery will be sent in the fall. But according to NATO diplomats, producing both the interceptors required and the entire setup takes longer compared to the Patriots. Plus, Kyiv has also questioned the European system's effectiveness.

When Trump and Rutte met the press to announce the deal on July 14, the US president mentioned that 17 Patriot systems could be readied to be purchased for Ukraine.

Germany last week announced that it will send two batteries to Ukraine in the near future, but it is not clear where the other systems would come from. Six European countries -- Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, and Spain -- currently operate Patriot systems but there are fears from those countries that sharing their batteries with Ukraine would leave their own skies exposed.

Both Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, the two primary producers of Patriots, are stepping up production to meet the European demands, but Ukraine, under constant Russian barrage, will likely not see the benefits anytime soon.