Since March 15, the United States has intensified its aerial campaign against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, claiming to have hit more than 1,000 targets.
Dubbed “Operation Rough Rider,” the campaign is intended to halt Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and ratchet up pressure on Tehran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations.
But despite the scale of the strikes, analysts question whether the effort has made any lasting impact.
“The Houthis remain undeterred,” said Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consultancy.
He noted that, while some Houthi infrastructure has been destroyed and personnel killed, the group appears to have turned the campaign to its advantage.
“Any losses are likely short-term and temporary,” he told RFE/RL, citing a boost in Houthi recruitment and fundraising.
Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes, added that the Houthis’ continued ability to launch attacks -- particularly against Israel and US drones -- undermines US claims of degrading their capabilities.
“It is arguably getting increasingly embarrassing for the United States every time the Houthis launch an attack on Israel or shoot down an MQ-9,” Binnie said.
SEE ALSO: US Strikes On Yemen's Houthis A Message To IranA recent admission by the US Navy that an F/A-18 fighter fell off the USS Harry S. Truman during a maneuver to avoid a Houthi strike has only reinforced perceptions that the group remains a potent threat.
Meanwhile, the group has continued launching missiles toward Israel, claiming responsibility on May 2 for two strikes that prompted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to intercept both and activate nationwide sirens.
US Central Command insists that the campaign has degraded the pace and effectiveness of the group's attacks.
"Ballistic missile launches have dropped by 69 percent. Additionally, attacks from one way attack drones have decreased by 55%," CENTCOM said in a statement on April 27. "Iran undoubtedly continues to provide support to the Houthis. The Houthis can only continue to attack our forces with the backing of the Iranian regime."
Have The Attacks Impacted Relations With Iran?
Analysts warn that the strikes may be having the opposite effect on regional dynamics, driving the Houthis closer to Tehran rather than isolating them.
The group -- formally known as the Ansarallah movement and designated a terrorist organization by the United States -- is a key member of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” a network of nonstate actors that has faced setbacks over the past year.
SEE ALSO: Fall Of Assad Unravels Iran's Decades-Old 'Axis Of Resistance'But since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, the Houthis have elevated their role within that alliance, claiming attacks on Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians.
Protesters, predominantly supporters of the Houthis, rally to demonstrate solidarity with Palestinians, vowing that US airstrikes would not deter their support, in Sanaa, Yemen, April 25
While their growing prominence has afforded them some autonomy, experts say they remain deeply reliant on Iran for weapons and strategic support.
“You know very well what the US military is capable of -- and you were warned,” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted on X on May 1, addressing Iran directly. “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.”
Still, Clarke argues that the strikes may have only deepened the Houthi-Iran alliance.
“If anything, the strikes have pushed the Houthis closer to Iran,” he said, casting doubt on whether a future nuclear agreement would change Tehran’s behavior.
Binnie echoed Clarke’s skepticism. “US officials might hope the campaign pressures Iran,” he said, “but it’s difficult to say if that is happening.”
A fourth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States was initially slated for May 3 in Rome but has been postponed due to what Omani mediators described as “logistical reasons.”
With weeks of sustained bombing behind it, the United States appears no closer to deterring Houthi attacks or weakening their political backing -- raising hard questions about the strategic value of the campaign.