Baltic Countries Feel Aftershocks From US Suspension of Ukraine Military Aid

RIGA, Latvia -- Washington's decision to pause military assistance to Ukraine following the televised argument at the White House between presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has left the Baltic region on edge.

As US shipments began to slow on March 4 amid a standoff between Kyiv and Washington, the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania quickly moved to voice their support for Kyiv while encouraging both sides to come back together and strike a deal amid fears that fallout from Trump and Zelenskyy's Oval Office dustup could embolden Russia and leave Ukraine exposed.

"The most important thing now is that the negotiations do not stop, that the contacts that were established much earlier are not overshadowed by emotions," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said at a press conference.

The stakes are high for the three Baltic states on NATO's eastern flank. The relatively small countries have long dealt with Russian pressure and interference and are among the strongest supporters of Ukraine -- helping Kyiv diplomatically and sending military aid as Ukrainian forces have resisted Moscow's invasion.

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Baltic Countries Worry About Russia After US Pauses Military Aid To Ukraine

The latest episode between Kyiv and Washington has brought a new layer of uncertainty to the region. It has also fueled calls for European governments to step up and fill potential gaps on the battlefield for Ukraine and for frontline NATO members, such as the Baltic states, in case the Trump administration decides to reduce the number of US troops deployed across the Continent.

Against that backdrop, Baltic officials are throwing their weight behind a diplomatic solution that won't sideline Ukraine and would bridge the gap with the United States.

"Ukraine is dedicated to achieving peace, but it must be a lasting peace, not just a break for Russia to gather strength for further aggression," Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna wrote on March 4 after a call with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sybiha.

How Are People In The Baltic Countries Reacting?

On the streets of the region's capital cities, the frantic diplomacy around the war has brought unease and stoked concerns about closer ties between Washington and Moscow.

Reactions from residents who spoke to RFE/RL in Riga and Tallinn, the Latvian and Estonian capitals, ranged from shock at an apparent U.S.-Russia reset to beliefs that the inflamed tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy will calm down in the coming days and weeks.

Linas Kojala, director of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, a Vilnius-based think tank, says many people in the Baltics are caught off-guard by the "sharp change in rhetoric" from Washington around Russia and the war in Ukraine.

"People are very surprised that the United States is suddenly becoming a player in global politics that echoes similar positions as the Kremlin, at least in a narrative sense," he told RFE/RL.

Zelenskyy's latest outreach to the White House and Trump's comments during his March 4 speech to a joint session of the US Congress may quell some of that anxiety.

In a post on X ahead of Trump's speech, Zelenskyy proposed on March 4 a new framework for a partial cease-fire with Russia, saying Kyiv would be willing to release prisoners and agree to a truce that would ban long-range attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure.

Zelenskyy also said the way his Oval Office meeting -- that ended with him leaving the White House without signing an important minerals deal -- unfolded was "regrettable" and said he was open to signing the agreement.

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"Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal," Zelensky wrote, while reiterating his appreciation for US support.

During his address to Congress, Trump also appeared willing to patch things up with Ukraine, saying he appreciated Zelenskyy's statement and that the Ukrainian leader had sent him a letter agreeing to come to the negotiating table.

"Simultaneously, we've had serious discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they are ready for peace," he added.

What Is US Policy Toward Estonia, Latvia, And Lithuania?

Still, the Trump administration's widening split with its European allies will require adjustment in the region and beyond, says Tomas Tomilinas, a member of the Lithuanian parliament.

"It's evident that significant changes are taking place in US policy regarding the war in Ukraine," he told RFE/RL, adding Europe needs to invest quickly in its own defenses. "The discussion now is about creating serious financial instruments for a common European defense policy."

Since the end of World War II, the United States has underpinned much of the security framework across Europe, but the Trump administration has signaled that this could change as the Pentagon conducts a review of its military footprint and eyes a potential reduction of troop numbers.

Washington has said there will be no imminent pullout, but the transatlantic rift over a peace plan for the Ukraine war, including the potential deployment of European peacekeepers, has changed the conversation for policymakers.

European governments have hiked military spending in recent years and many governments have announced new increases since Trump took office in January.

While NATO and US military backing are crucial for the Baltic states, all three countries meet NATO's spending benchmark and are among the alliance's top contributors as a percentage of gross national product (GDP).

The region also hosts more than 2,000 American troops, with approximately 1,000 in Lithuania and 600 each in Estonia and Latvia. The Baltic states also host NATO deployments from Britain, Canada, and Germany.

Trump himself recently said Washington stays committed to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania but repeated his call for NATO to step up defense spending.

"It's a tough neighborhood...but we're committed," he told reporters on February 28. "We're going to be very committed. And we're committed to NATO. But NATO needs to step up and the Europeans must step up more than they have."

Tomilinas says European governments need to "double what we currently spend on defense" if the Continent is serious about backing Kyiv.

"In Lithuania, the attitude toward supporting Ukraine has not changed," he said. "Lithuania prioritizes Ukraine's interests because, at this moment, it is safeguarding Europe's security and holding back a threat."