Moscow's Rubicon: Russian Drones In Polish Airspace Test NATO

This was the fear.

Since February 2022, when Russia chose to attack Ukraine and launch Europe’s largest land war in nearly eight decades, the fear was that Ukraine's neighbors would be collateral damage.

Not just any neighbors, moreover.

Ukraine shares land borders with four NATO members – Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary –plus a maritime borders with Romania and Turkey.

How would the alliance react if Russia’s war spilled into a NATO member? If a Russian weapons hit, or landed, in an alliance member, would that member invoke the treaty’s “one-for-all-all-for-one” Article 5? Would NATO go to war with Russia?

As of September 10, when around 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, some shot down by fighter jets from other NATO members, that Rubicon was crossed.

What happens now depends on several things: above all, what exactly Russia’s intentions were, if the drones were intentionally fired, or were jammed and drifted off course. Polish officials called it an “act of aggression” and “large-scale provocation” but did not outright call it an attack.

For years, experts have warned that an emboldened Kremlin might try to test NATO’s resolve, independent of the Ukraine invasion.

If the Polish incident was a test -- EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of launching a "test of unity" -- how the alliance responds will be critical.

Warsaw invoked the NATO’s treaty’s Article 4 – which is a mandatory convocation of members. It’s the second time that has happened since February 2022. That’s short of the more serious Article 5.

Watch also how the alliance responds on the question of whether to send European peacekeepers to Ukraine, something under active discussion. Moscow says European boots on the ground in Ukraine would be a red line.

“I'd say the Russian goal is to instill fear in European leaders,” said Oscar Johnson, a military analyst at the Swedish Defense University, in Stockholm. “Fear of escalation is their main tool for keeping substantial and determined European troops out of Ukraine.”

Close Calls

There have been close calls in the past, when Russia’s war spilled past Ukraine's borders.

In November 2022, a Russian-made missile stuck a Polish village, killing two people. Warsaw was outraged. NATO alarm bells sounded. It turned out later to be Russian-made antiaircraft missile that had been fired by Ukraine and went off course. The alliance stood down.

Russian drones, not to mention fighter jets and surveillance jets, routinely skirt airspace of NATO members, who do the same themselves, particularly over the Baltic, Black and Bering seas. Russian drones have entered Latvian and Estonian airspace in the past.

Romania has raised its alarms dozens of times for drones crossing into its airspace, and scrambled NATO member fighter jets on several occasions. Russian drone debris has fallen in Romanian territory several times, including in July 2024.

Romania, however, has never escalated its concerns, or called for urgent action from the alliance.

The Polish incident was a first for NATO: the first time alliance aircraft responded directly, in allied airspace, to Russian weapons.

"I have no reason to claim we're on the brink of war, but a line has been crossed, and it's incomparably more dangerous than before," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament, calling it "the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II."

Johnson predicted that countries determined to protect NATO borders, or support Ukraine – think Poland, the Baltics, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands -- will be galvanized by the incident. More risk-averse countries will be hesitant.

“We can see a more determined majority, but a more hesitant minority. The most important consequence will be if this alters the US hesitancy to impose significant consequences on Russia, whether it be sanctions or military support,” he told RFE/RL.

Look To The Zapad

Further stoking the flames: Zapad 2025, a major military exercise involving thousands of Russia and Belarusian troops, that kicks off September 12. Poland ordered its borders with Belarus closed in response, and flight trackers have reported an uptick in Western surveillance fights.

“It’s a very militarily tense situation which Russia is now using to show basically its strength and its ability to also interfere with NATO territory,” Marta Prochwicz-Jazowska, a Warsaw-based policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Nick Reynolds, a land warfare research fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, downplayed the significance of the Polish shootdown.

“It looks like Russia is testing NATO. They’re certainly testing Poland, and the response is pretty predictable, the Poles have been preparing for months for this,” he said. “It’s exactly the kind of boundary testing that we would expect.”

“It's not something that should be ignored,” Reynolds told RFE/RL. However, “I think the Polish response is completely predictable, completely proportionate, and I just don't see this as a game changer.”

RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak contributed to this report.