In Patriot, his posthumously published memoir, Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny predicted he would die behind bars. "I'll be missing from all photos" as life goes on afterward, he wrote.
President Vladimir Putin's government seems to be trying to make that true in an almost literal sense. The Kremlin's long and sweeping crackdown on anything and anyone linked to Navalny now includes prosecuting Russians for the public display of Navalny's image on the grounds that it is an "extremist symbol."
Such cases, analysts say, are part of an effort by the state to discredit Navalny and his followers and eradicate any influence they might have after his death, in part by punishing people, in some cases, for holding his photo or uttering his name.
Navalny stands in a cage in the Babuskinsky District Court in Moscow on February 20, 2021.
Putin's most prominent foe for a decade or more, Navalny died in a prison known as Polar Wolf on February 16, 2024. His widow, Yulia Navalnya, and many supporters believe Putin is responsible for his death.
Navalny barely survived a poisoning in Siberia with a weapons-grade nerve agent in August 2020, which he said evidence shows was carried out by Federal Security Service (FSB) operatives acting at Putin's behest.
After recovering in Germany, he was arrested at a Moscow airport upon his return to Russia in January 2021 and remained in custody -- mostly in jails and prisons where he was mistreated and denied adequate medical care -- until his death.
Navalny's nationwide network of political offices was branded extremist and outlawed in 2021, as was his Anti-Corruption Foundation, whose investigative reports claimed to have revealed evidence of wide-scale graft, painting a picture of a wildly wealthy, privileged group of people close to Putin living luxurious lives at the expense of ordinary Russians struggling to get by.
SEE ALSO: 'We Wasted The Chances He Gave Us': Director Andrei Loshak Talks About His New Navalny FilmBoth before and after his death, many associates and allies were prosecuted, jailed, or driven out of Russia.
When Navalny was buried in Moscow, tens of thousands of people lined up under the watchful eye of the police and filed past his grave to "say goodbye to a man who symbolizes freedom," as one mourner put it, in an outpouring of sorrow and support that was a rebuke to Putin.
Yulia Navalnaya vowed to pursue her husband's cause, urging Russians to "share my rage, fury, and hatred for those who dared to murder our future."
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Remembering Aleksei Navalny's Last Months Of Freedom In Germany
But in the year since his death, Navalny's widow and former associates have struggled to make an impact amid Russia's war on Ukraine and Putin's still-spiraling clampdown on dissent inside the country they've been forced to leave.
One big piece of evidence of that struggle: The mixed audience reaction to the Anti-Corruption Foundation's latest report, one that in different circumstances, or a different country, might have had a major effect.
Based on an examination of company records, police databases, social media, and other sources, it alleged that Russian state oil giant Rosneft employs dozens of young women who are listed as administrative staffers but in fact provide escort services to senior executives.
Yulia Navalnaya stands in a queue with other voters at a polling station near the Russian Embassy in Berlin on March 17, 2024.
It said it had established that one woman had accompanied Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, a close Putin associate, on his private jet at least 58 times since she was hired at age 21 in 2016, at a salary much higher than more experienced employees.
Critics question the focus on such matters amid Russia's war on Ukraine.
"It's as if German anti-fascist emigrants, in the third year of the war, when the ovens of Auschwitz were already smoking, presented an investigation of Goering's private bordello as an important sensation," Igor Eidman, a Russian sociologist who lives in Germany, wrote on Telegram.
Others disagree.
"To know that everyone [close to Putin] steals is one thing, but to see the evidence, especially on the scale conveyed in the investigation, is something else entirely," Maikl Naki, a Russian journalist who lives abroad and has a YouTube channel focusing on the war in Ukraine, wrote on Telegram.
Russia analyst Sam Greene said that "the polarization engendered by the war and by Russian politics in general has eroded some of the audience for these kinds of investigations, if only because those who are inclined to believe them already believe much worse things about the regime, and because those not inclined to believe them will reject the source out of hand."
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'Victory For Ukraine!': Navalnaya, Released Prisoners Lead Russian Opposition March In Berlin
But "that does not mean that they are pointless," Greene, a professor at the King's Russia Institute and director of democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, wrote in a blog post on February 2. "For one thing, when there is an opportunity for a genuine reckoning in Russian politics, these sorts of investigations will help form the basis for justice. And for another, even if fewer people are inclined to pay attention, not reporting on this scale of corruption contributes to the isolation of those who believe that Russia can and should be governed differently. And that's a favor Putin hasn't earned."
Still, "There is some real doubt as to the effectiveness of the traditional model of what they do," Ben Noble, an associate professor of Russian politics at University College London and co-author of a 2021 book, Navalny: Putin's Nemesis, Russia's Future?, said of the late opposition leader's associates.
Russia's war against Ukraine is one major factor affecting perceptions of Navalny's associates and their activities. But a series of scandals has also undermined Team Navalny and what's now called the International Anti-Corruption Foundation (ACF International).
Senior Navalny associate Leonid Volkov stepped down as chairman of the foundation in 2023 amid sharp criticism over a letter he signed calling for lifting European Union sanctions on several Russian oligarchs, but he remains closely involved.
Weeks after Navalny's death, assailants attacked Volkov with a hammer near his home in Lithuania, breaking an arm and injuring a leg. Controversy flared when the ACF accused tycoon and Kremlin critic Leonid Nevzlin of hiring the attackers, which he denied.
Later last year, the fractured Russian opposition abroad was splintered further when a former ally accused the ACF of "laundering the reputations" of two Russian bankers in exchange for financial and administrative support -- changes the ACF denied.
More broadly, the struggles of his associates are "a reflection of the fact that Navalny's gone," Noble told RFE/RL. "Navalny, clearly, for his charisma, his eloquence, his obstinacy, his bravery, all of those qualities, he stood out."
Supporters of Navalny attend a rally in Moscow in October 2017.
"Even though [Navalnaya] said that she vowed to take on her husband's work, we haven't seen her or anybody else rise as a sort of central leading figure," he said. "And maybe these doubts reflect the fact that there's no longer that single figure that can keep things going."
Still, he said, "It's far too early to write off Team Navalny."
As for Navalny's legacy, Noble said, "it's going to be mixed and…it's going to be polarized."
Like the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, Navalny is widely lauded across much of the West, where he is seen as "this champion of freedom, and a vociferous opponent of Putin," Noble said. "Within Russia, the picture is very different, and no surprise given what state media have said about Navalny for so many years, trying to paint him as a Western-backed CIA stooge."
As long as Putin is in power, that's "unlikely to change, and if anything, it might get worse," he said. "People in Russia will start to forget about who Navalny was and what he did…. And so I think we may see just an increased polarization of two very, very different legacies."