Defense Spending, Ukraine, And Trump: What To Expect At NATO's Hague Summit

NATO leaders will gather in The Hague on June 24–25 with one key question looming: Can they agree on a hefty new defense spending target of 5 percent of GDP?"

The spotlight, however, will be firmly on US President Donald Trump.

If he shows up, that is.

Speculation has been mounting that he may skip the summit altogether, although most NATO insiders RFE/RL has spoken to believe that he will attend.

The summit has essentially been designed to please the American leader and avoid any sign of disharmony in the club.

Lingering fears remain of a repeat of the infamous 2018 NATO summit in Brussels, when Trump -- then in his first term -- threatened to pull the United States out of the alliance unless European countries and Canada significantly increased their defense outlays.

Since then, most allies have ramped up spending, with most now reaching the 2 percent target agreed in Wales in 2014 -- driven by a mix of American pressure and the war in Ukraine.

What was supposed to be a three-day-meeting in The Netherlands has now been reduced to a social dinner with spouses hosted by the Dutch King at one of the city’s royal palaces on June 24, followed by one working session of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) the following day --– a meeting not even expected to last three hours.

And that’s it.

It is at the NAC session that the leaders will agree on the so-called Hague Declaration.

The document hasn’t been finalized yet, but earlier drafts RFE/RL has seen indicate that it will be a very short one.

While previous summit texts stretched several pages, touching upon all sorts of policy items, this one may only have as few as five paragraphs. Last year, it was 38 paragraphs with an additional six-point annex outlining security assistance for Ukraine.

The key issue is the 5 percent defense spending target and when it should be reached.

Spain Balks At Spending Target

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has already sent a letter to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte ahead of the meeting, saying that the target is unreasonable and asking for an exemption for Madrid.

Just before the summit, Spain was given some flexibility by Rutte to reach the target.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte

The 5 percent target proposed by Rutte includes 3.5 percent for “hard” military spending on capabilities such as missiles, helicopters, and fighter jets. The other 1.5 percent has been earmarked for “resilience” -- a deliberately vague term for most member states as this spending can include pretty much anything.

Most are likely to spend it on infrastructure, however, to improve military mobility. And they may also include contributions to Kyiv here, with the draft document noting that “allies reaffirm their commitment to provide support to Ukraine and, to this end, will include direct contributions towards Ukraine's defense and its defense industry when calculating Allies' defense spending.”

Disagreements also remain over the deadline for reaching the 5 percent target.

Apart from the United States, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, few are happy with 2032 as the target date, simply because they think it is impossible to meet this deadline.

It now looks like 2035 will be the target instead.

In any event, the declaration will include a reference to a review of the target in 2029.

It has not been lost on NATO officials that this date comes a year after the next US presidential elections, even though they have been quick to insist that this is simply the half-way mark between now and 2032.

To the relief of European allies, NATO’s mutual defense clause -- Article 5 -- is referenced in the draft declaration amid persistent fears that Washington wasn’t truly committed to coming to the aid of the other 31 allies if they were attacked. Russia is also mentioned in the text as a “threat” to Euro-Atlantic security.

The document will also reference transatlantic industrial cooperation, a nod to Washington’s interest in ensuring that US companies also benefit from a European defense splurge.

Furthermore, it reveals that next year’s summit will be in Turkey followed by a meeting in Albania.

Turkey has long sought to host a NATO summit, but several alliance members have for years been reluctant due to the ongoing crackdown on the Turkish opposition. Now, with Ankara’s growing geopolitical clout -- from the Middle East to Ukraine -- that ambition will finally be realized in 2026.

Ukrainian Membership?

Another major uncertainty is how prominently Ukraine will feature at the upcoming summit.

Kyiv’s NATO membership aspirations were headline topics at the Vilnius summit in 2023 and again in Washington a year later, but talk about this has died down since Trump publicly dismissed the country’s chances of joining.

There is no mention of Ukraine’s potential membership in the draft Hague texts with some NATO diplomats telling RFE/RL under condition of anonymity that they believe omitting any mention is better than including a watered-down version of the language from the Vilnius and Washington communiques, which at least promised future membership.

With no formal NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) slated for the summit at the leaders’ level, NATO foreign ministers will instead have something of a compensatory NUC dinner on June 24 in the presence of their Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Sybiha.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been invited to The Hague, and it is hoped that he will make an appearance at the leaders’ social dinner, an event that NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners -- Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea -- are also due to attend.

Zelenskiy may also take part in some sidebar events at the summit, such as the NATO defense industry forum. There may also be a “mini summit” on Ukraine with Rutte and other European leaders after the formal NATO meeting is over.