As NATO Mulls Response To Trespassing Russian Warplanes, Can It Shoot Them Down?

NATO officials are gathering for a meeting of its North Atlantic Council (NAC) on September 23, called by Estonia in response to an incursion by Russian warplanes into its airspace last week.

That incident and previous incursions into other NATO countries by Russian drones, particularly into Poland on September 10, have left the alliance scrambling for the right response.

Czech President Petr Pavel, a career soldier who was a senior NATO official as head of its Military Committee, even suggested shooting down Russian planes if necessary in remarks to Czech media on September 20.

In the Polish case, some of the drones were shot down by Polish and NATO air assets. In Estonia, Russian jets were escorted away by Swedish, Finnish, and Italian planes -- with the latter nation currently being in charge of the alliance's Baltic air policing mission together with Spain and Hungary.

NATO officials who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity say it is much easier to get clearance to shoot at an unmanned drone, especially if it is seen as heading toward critical infrastructure, than a jet with a pilot.

SEE ALSO: Russia's Latest Airspace Violation Raises Alarms With NATO, Allies

Can They Shoot?

As a rule of thumb: NATO is a defensive alliance consisting of 32 sovereign nations. That means that, ultimately, it is up to each and every country how it polices and defends its territory -- including its airspace. But a "caution first" approach is usually applied. In other words: Don't shoot immediately.

But things are different if there is a mission or operation in progress that falls under the NATO umbrella.

This is the case with the eight battlegroups along the alliance's eastern flank and the Baltic air policing mission that has been in place since Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined in 2004. NATO allies with fighter jets take turns every four months to patrol the skies of the Baltic trio, which lack their own air power.

In cases such as this, the rules of engagement are set by the NAC, which is the alliance's foremost political decision-making body.

Decisions are made via unanimity, with the military aspects then executed by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). This is always a US general, currently General Alexus G. Grynkewich, who took up the role in July. Every mission under him has its own specific rules of engagement. What unites them all is that they aren't made public and should keep enemies guessing.

SEE ALSO: How NATO Is Boosting Eastern Defenses Amid Russian Air Incursions

What makes it even more complicated is that NATO as an organization has few assets under its own command. Instead, most allies provide their national capabilities to SACEUR but maintain their own national caveats.

A hypothetical example: If Italian planes are asked to shot down drones over Poland as part the alliance's new Eastern Sentry operation, someone in Rome must give the green light.

Depending on the agreement, this could be a military chief, defense minister, or even prime minister. In other instances, countries allow SACEUR or his commanders to make the call.

As noted, there's a high bar for opening fire, especially at Russian planes with human crews. The NATO jets involved in the Baltic air policing mission shouldn't really shoot at those.

Two NATO officials told RFE/RL the three MiGs that spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace on September 19 did not represent a direct threat to the country. Rather, they said, it was a provocation to test the alliance's response and that NATO aircraft did the correct thing in escorting them away.

But the wisdom of this is now being debated in public. Like the Czech president, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene have suggested that it could become necessary to shoot down Russian planes.

Why Turkey Opened Fire

The example of Turkey gunning down a Russian Sukhoi-24M near the Turkish-Syrian border in 2015 is often highlighted. The jet violated Turkish airspace during the height of the Syrian War for 17 seconds after having been warned numerous times to change course.

This was a simpler situation. Turkey made its own decision to use its own air force as it saw fit.

While tensions were high between Ankara and Moscow and the latter imposed immediate sanctions, relations warmed again six months later with the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing regret. NATO sided with Ankara but asked for caution and deployed more AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) planes to the country.

SEE ALSO: Zelenskyy Calls For 'Strong' US Measures Against Russia As Tensions Rise With NATO

Much like Turkey back then, and Poland earlier in September, Estonia has called for consultations under NATO's Article 4, which are now going ahead on September 23. Tallinn is likely to point out that this is the fifth Russian airspace violation this year, the two planes had their transponders shut down, and they failed to communicate with Estonian air traffic control.

This behavior is becoming increasingly common by Russian planes in the Baltic Sea theater.

NATO officials believe some allies will repeat the warning that they might be forced to shoot down next time. But rules of engagements can also be changed in other ways, such as allowing allied aircraft to fly closer to enemy planes or to fire warning shots.