NATO Set To Agree On New Defense Budget Targets

NATO defense ministers meet on June 5 in a last ministerial meeting before the big annual NATO summit on June 24-25, when the military alliance's 32 heads of state and government, including US President Donald Trump, gather at The Hague.

The meeting is about one thing only: cash. This is when officials are set to agree on the next NATO spending target.

As most alliance members now spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, the next goal is 3.5 percent in so-called hard spending, meaning military capabilities such as tanks, rockets, and ammunition.

According to NATO officials who spoke to RFE/RL, only Spain seems to have problems with the 3.5 percent target, but it's expected to relent at the ministerial.

Spain is one of only a few countries still not clearing the 2 percent baseline, having only reached 1.28 percent last year; the budgeted military spending increase it was hoping for appears to be stuck for now.

The issue in Madrid is related to the center-left government's long-held promise to coalition partners to get Catalan, Basque, and Galician to become official EU languages -- something that requires unanimity among EU member states, which Spain failed to secure when it came up on the agenda in Brussels on May 27.

While the language issue hasn't been entirely dismissed yet, no date has been set for a potential decision on the question.

NATO 'Soft' Target Spending

The 3.5 percent target is not the only thing awaiting a decision. There should also be a 1.5 percent of GDP spending goal on what could be called soft targets, bringing total defense spending up to 5 percent of GDP.

One of the big issues now, with negotiations likely to continue right up till the summit, is what kind of expenditure can be included in that 1.5 percent. It would certainly include boosting civil preparedness and cyberdefense, but allies are lobbying to put pretty much anything in there -- rumor has it Germany wants to include financing for its Deutsche Welle media broadcasting.

There are two more questions that may not be resolved anytime soon: the timeline for reaching the target and how exactly to do so. The year 2032 has been mentioned, but that may well be pushed back to 2035, with officials saying it's unrealistic for every country to boost defense spending before then as there are low growth and considerable budget deficits to contend with.

There is a real discussion on the method of how to reach the target with NATO officials pushing for a 0.2 percent spending increase every year. Most countries, however, don't want such a detailed plan and prefer spending in spurts when money is available. This would mean their defense spending could jump considerably during a year when they place a major order of tanks or airplanes, for example -- and ideally this would come nearer the 3.5 percent target.

Where Does The US Stand On NATO Defense Spending?

It's been Trump, after all, who's hammered home to European NATO allies that they need to spend more. European diplomats I have spoken to say Washington simply wants the 3.5 percent in writing at The Hague meeting and doesn't really care what the other 1.5 percent involves.

But there's also a grand transatlantic bargain to be had. The United States would like a potential European defense splurge to benefit American weapon manufacturers. But with supply chains stretched in North America, it could make sense to set up more American production in Europe. In other words: buy American in Europe. Think of the Patriot systems that will be made in Germany or F-35 aircraft production in Italy.

So what about Ukraine? There will at least be a session of the NATO-Ukraine Council at the defense ministerial on June 5. But that is something that seems unlikely at the summit in The Hague with the presence of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy still unconfirmed.

The day before the ministerial meeting, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein group), an alliance of 57 countries, will meet to coordinate military aid for Kyiv. For the first time since the group was created three years ago, the US defense secretary will not be in attendance.

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth will not arrive in Brussels until after the Ukraine Defense Contact Group's meeting is over. With the United States no longer in the lead, Germany and the United Kingdom are now co-chairing the group with more announcements of military aid expected.

NATO allies provided 50 billion euros to Ukraine in 2024, and the goal is to provide another 40 billion this year. More than 20 billion euros have been pledged so far, but there is still a fear that target won't be reached as countries will be prioritizing their own defenses and the United States signaled it might not send more arms to Kyiv as it seeks a negotiated end to the fighting.