Hope And Fear In Iran As Russia's Lavrov Visits Tehran

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, after a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, said Tehran would not bow to pressure from the United States, a day after Washington imposed new sanctions on Iran's oil industry.

Lavrov's one-day trip to Tehran on February 25 comes a week after the first high-level talks between Moscow and Washington in three years.

The talks in Saudi Arabia on February 18 have raised hopes of a reset between Russia and the United States after tensions soared following the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Analysts said the meeting in Tehran could be the Kremlin checking in to make sure Iran's stance on key issues is in line with Moscow -- especially regarding relations with Washington -- or that Lavrov could be delivering a message from the Saudi Arabian talks.

The potential rapprochement has fueled concerns in Iran that Moscow could abandon Tehran, an ally, to revive relations with Washington. Others in the Islamic republic hope Moscow can mediate an end to the standoff between Iran and the United States.

“They tend to send some diplomats to Iran at least assuage concerns because as you know there is a long-standing apprehension in Iran that the Russians may potentially sell out Iran to the United States,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program, told Radio Farda.

Lavrov's visit came a day after Washington imposed a new round of sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry, the main source of the country's income.

Earlier this month, Trump restored his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, saying Tehran was "too close" to weaponizing its nuclear program.

In 2018, during his first term in office, Trump pulled the United States out of an agreement between Tehran and world powers that placed limits on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Since then, the Islamic republic has ramped up its uranium enrichment, raising fears that it is close to developing a nuclear warhead.

"There is no possibility of direct negotiations with the U.S. as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this way," Araghchi said at a joint news conference with Lavrov

Lavrov said diplomatic measures were still on the table for resolving issues around Iran's nuclear program.

The prospect of improved relations between Washington and Moscow have raised concern among some in Tehran who feel it could impact Iran.

Iran's conservative daily Jomhuri Eslami on February 25 warned of a "grand bargain" between Washington and Moscow that could result in Russia "turning a blind eye" to any potential U.S. military action against Iran.

The daily Etemad suggested this week that Lavrov could carry a message from Washington that includes proposals for reducing tensions between Iran and the United States and paving the way for a new round of talks between the two countries.

The daily also said the aim of Lavrov's trip to Iran could be to become acquainted with Tehran's positions before a potential meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the future.

"What Putin is pursuing is not a deal regarding Iran but merely the national interests of Russia," Hossein Shalevarzi, a former head of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, said on X last week.

Despite deep mistrust, Tehran and Moscow have grown closer and enhanced military cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Moscow was hit by a slew of Western sanctions.

Iran has provided Russia with cheap but deadly drones that have been used against Ukraine, though both Tehran and Moscow deny it.

“The aim of the trip is to put pressure on Tehran to be in line with Moscow,” Damon Golriz, a lecturer at the Hague University of Applied Sciences, told Radio Farda.

Other Iranian observers say a potential U.S.-Russia reset could be an opportunity for Tehran.

Tehran-based analyst Abdolreza Farajirad said in an interview with Etemad that Lavrov's trip to Iran comes amid "a deadlock" between Tehran and Washington and a worsening economy that has turned into a major challenge for the Islamic republic.

"If Russia can act as a mediator between Tehran and Washington, it can be considered a positive development," Farajirad said.