Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking into what Iran's new cooperation framework with the UN nuclear watchdog entails and whether it can stave off the return of international sanctions.
What You Need To Know
• New Cooperation Framework With The IAEA: Tehran's new technical agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has injected cautious optimism into nuclear diplomacy, but is it enough to stop European powers from reimposing UN snapback sanctions before the clock runs out?
• Mood In Iran After Israeli Strike In Qatar: Israel's first strike on Qatari soil has sent shock waves through Tehran, fueling doubts about diplomacy with the West. Iranian commentators say the attack exposes the limits of negotiations. Middle East analyst Mehrdad Farahmand told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the failure of air defenses to detect the missiles "indicates that the United States had no objections to the attack." He added that this is particularly significant in light of the extensive US-Qatar defense cooperation agreements.
• Hospital Staff In Legal Trouble Over Hijab Defiance: Iranian authorities say a legal case has been opened against several staff members at Tehran's Sarem Women's Hospital for "behavior contrary to public decency and social norms." The move follows the circulation of a video showing graduates of the teaching hospital without hijabs and embracing the hospital's chairman. The hijab, or head scarf, remains mandatory for women in Iran, though growing numbers continue to defy the rule despite the risk of arrest.
The Big Issue
An Iranian flag flutters in front of the reactor building of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. (file photo)
Limited Inspection Regime
On September 9, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi agreed in Cairo on "practical modalities" for resuming inspections, potentially including some sites bombed by the United States in June.
Grossi praised the move as "an important step in the right direction." Yet diplomats and analysts warn that the technical agreement will only matter if it swiftly leads to inspectors on the ground and substantive nuclear disclosures, not just more negotiations or delays.
Araqchi later told Iranian state media that, for now, the deal does not guarantee access for IAEA inspectors beyond the Bushehr nuclear plant. Instead, all further site inspections and transparency measures hinge on future negotiations and the approval of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
Britain, France and Germany -- collectively known as the E3 -- remain skeptical, seeing the announcement as necessary but not sufficient.
Why It Matters: The E3 have repeatedly warned Iran to restore full IAEA access, disclose the location of its enriched uranium stockpile, and return to nuclear talks with Washington or face the automatic reinstatement of UN sanctions at the end of September. The snapback process is already set in motion, and only immediate, visible compliance can delay it.
What's Being Said: Araqchi has warned Iran will withdraw from the agreement if UN sanctions return or if any "hostile act" occurs.
President Masud Pezeshkian has insisted Tehran will not compromise on sovereignty or security and will nullify the pact if pressured further. Meanwhile, both Iran and the IAEA have expressed hope that the technical dialogue will avert a larger crisis, but the diplomatic window is narrowing rapidly.
In Iran, proponents of engagement with the West see the deal with the IAEA as a key step toward a new agreement with the United States over Tehran's nuclear program. Hard-liners, however, deride the new cooperation framework with the UN nuclear watchdog, which they accuse of spying on Iran for Israel.
Expert Opinion: Eric Brewer, a deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, cautioned that snapback sanctions would likely "slow but ultimately not stop" Iran's attempts to rebuild its nuclear program or even go for a bomb.
Brewer told RFE/RL that the exact delay is unclear due to unknowns over what parts of Iran's nuclear infrastructure survived the US and Israeli strikes. Iran could quickly set up smaller enrichment facilities to advance weapons-grade uranium production despite sanctions, he said.
On the policy front, Brewer warned that the worst-case scenario is Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) -- a process that can take 90 days.
Still, Brewer said outright withdrawal from the treaty seems unlikely, adding, "Iran would potentially see more value in further muddying the legal waters and use its relationship with the IAEA and status in the NPT as a sort of rheostat it can adjust for coercive leverage."
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
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Note: The next edition of the Farda Briefing will be issued on October 3.