The European Union has breathed a collective sigh of relief after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s swift U-turn this week over legislation that would have limited the independence of two key anti-corruption agencies.
But questions and speculation remain about what triggered it, what it says about Kyiv’s ruling class and how it will affect the war-torn country’s chances to join the bloc.
On July 22, Zelenskyy signed a bill approved by parliament that placed the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) under the auspices of the Prosecutor General, a position appointed by the president.
SEE ALSO: Zelenskyy’s Anti-Corruption Climbdown: What It Means For UkraineWithin hours Ukrainians, despite Russian air strikes earlier in the day, took to the streets to protest the move, which critics said took away the independence of the institutions in a country long know for deep-seated corruption.
The response also was immediate from Brussels to the Ukrainian parliament and president rushing through the legislation.
Both the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, called Zelenskyy demanding an explanation and expressing “strong concerns.”
European enlargement commissioner Marta Kos said in a post on X that “independent bodies like NABU and SAPO are essential for Ukraine’s EU path.”
Within two days Zelenskyy had done an about-face, putting forward new legislation that would reverse course and ensure independence for NABU and SAPO.
But the damage was already done.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, one diplomat said Zelenskyy “really had managed to shoot himself in the foot for no apparent reason” as it gave ample ammunition to the many in the 27-nation bloc who claim that Kyiv just is hopelessly corrupt.
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Kyiv Protesters Aim To Keep Up Pressure Over Law On Anti-Corruption Agencies
Another noted that it seemed that Ukraine suddenly had transported back to the era of former President Viktor Yanukovych, who constantly battled to control the judiciary.
Yanukovych was ousted from power in 2014 during the Maidan protests, sparked by his decision not to sign a political association and free trade deal with the EU, instead choosing closer ties with Moscow.
Grumblings over this week's legislative rollercoaster were also directed against Zelenskyy’s head of office, Andriy Yermak, a powerful but deeply polarizing figure in European circles.
Sources said questions persist if this in fact was the “real face” of Zelenskyy and his entourage given that many officials have long held fears about what they call his “tendencies to want to centralize power.”
Zelenskyy admitted that demonstrations in the country, the first such show of defiance against the government since Russia launched its full-scale the invasion in February 2022, had made him change his mind.
SEE ALSO: 'A Perilous Moment For Ukraine' As New Law Undermines Wartime UnityEU officials saw the change as positive -- signaling both a healthy and powerful civil society that also highlighted Zelenskyy’s democratic credentials -- in contrast with the considerable backsliding, for example, that has been seen recently in Georgia.
It appears as though pressure from Brussels may have also helped Zelenskyy's decision.
Everything was on the table, admits one official, and the bloc made that known.
That would mean freezing some of the billions of euros in funds that the EU provides Ukraine on a regular basis. A lot of this cash is conditioned on reform efforts, notably when it comes to the judiciary.
Visa Liberalization
One of the benchmarks for Ukraine to get visa liberalization to the bloc back in 2017 was the setting up of NABU. While no one was openly suggesting the suspension of visa liberalization, as is currently being mooted with Tbilisi, the threat of looking into it was enough to rattle Kyiv.
Then there was the delicate issue of de-coupling Ukraine from Moldova, allowing the latter to proceed alone in the EU accession process. That would be a heavy blow to Ukraine given the pair so far have moved closer to membership hand in hand.
The discussion about this started in Brussels in the spring with Hungary reluctant to give green light to Kyiv to start accession talks.
The idea was very much alive before the latest developments in Ukraine and EU officials have indicated to RFE/RL that it may come up again in early September with the view of giving Moldova’s ruling pro-EU government a boost before its crucial parliamentary election later that same month.
The fact that Hungary appears to be unlikely to change its position on the issue ahead of its own national elections in April next year, has made the issue even more pressing.
Many EU member states believe that this decoupling would be unfair as it essentially would give in to Budapest’s "blackmailing."
Yet some diplomats admitted that the latest events had weakened their argument, regardless of the subsequent Ukrainian backtracking.
Highlighting the diverging paths, the same day Ukraine's parliament approved the controversial law, Greek police arrested the Moldovan oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, arguably the country’s most wanted man.
SEE ALSO: EU Ministers Set To Approve Sanctions Targeting Moldova's 'Destabilizers'A former politician and one of Moldova's richest people, Plahotniuc is allegedly the mastermind behind the theft of $1 billion from Chisinau a decade ago -- a charge he denies.
At this moment, Moldova’s and Ukraine’s efforts to fight corruption couldn’t have contrasted more in the eyes of some in Brussels.
Interestingly, there is a feeling in Brussels that the Ukrainian frustration with the Hungarian veto and the bloc’s inability to deal with it could have driven Zelenskiy to care less about EU “hobby horses” such as corruption.
Rumors are swirling that several of the bloc’s leaders told him at a recent conference in Rome that he should be ready to accept that Moldova might move ahead of Ukraine.
That, coupled with less focus on the issue from the new American administration, gave him an opportunity to deal with long-standing nuisances such as pesky anti-corruption officials, diplomatic sources said.
He may have overplayed his hand on this occasion or possibly revealed it. Either way, the EU has taken note.