Caught Off-Guard By US Strikes On Iran, Europe Still Looking For Role

Europe is still looking for a role in the Israel-Iran conflict after it was caught by surprise following the United States’ strikes on Iran over the weekend.

But it is fair to say they say there is a sense of humiliation as the American attack on various nuclear facilities in Iran came some 24 hours after the foreign ministers of the E3 (France, Germany, the United Kingdom) and the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas met with their Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqhchi in Geneva on June 20.

Now, those talks didn’t lead to much, not even an agreement for a new rendezvous.

But Kallas was adamant when pressed on the issue going into the EU foreign affairs council on June 23 that Tehran has been opening up on nuclear and broader security issues.

Not that US President Donald Trump agreed. He claimed that European efforts had gone nowhere and that the Iranians weren’t even that keen to speak to them.

So what now?

European foreign ministers will be discussing the issue in Brussels and there are a few contours of a common position -- even if it may not have much impact on the ongoing conflict.

In fact, it boils down to the Europeans believing that diplomacy is the only way out and that Europe still is ready and experienced enough in dealing with Iran. This may not come in handy right now -- but at some point, it might.

The main goal for Brussels and other European capitals is to facilitate space for the Iranians and Americans to talk directly to each other. They failed miserably with this in Geneva, but there will be more opportunities.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul noted before going into the Brussels meeting that Washington is still encouraging the Europeans to stay in contact with Iran.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot insisted that Israeli and American strikes won’t on their own keep Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. That, he said, can only be regulated through diplomacy.

Would this be some updated Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- the European-inspired deal struck with European help back in 2015?

This agreement limited Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

The EU still clings to the JCPOA as a symbol of European diplomatic achievement. In truth, the deal suffered a major blow during Trump’s first term, as it was seen as a legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama. Under President Joe Biden, it was barely limping along, with both Washington and Tehran adopting increasingly hard-line positions.

Now it appears dead with little chance of being resurrected.

But there are still aspects of it that can have an impact.

Kallas noted that the Europeans still had the option of a sanctions "snapback" on Iran under the JCPOA. This would add a layer of pressure, but, in reality, this is not on the table for now, according to European diplomats familiar with the matter whom RFE/RL has spoken to.

Much like with Ukraine and potential peace talks, it appears that Europe might be a future payer but not a player. And it is weary of criticizing Israel and the United States too much.

European Weapons Embargo?

There is talk of a European weapons embargo on Israel as well as a suspension of an EU-Israel trade deal given the alleged human rights abuses going on in Gaza.

Neither is likely to fly as the divisions in the EU are too deep.

As for the United States, the worries over the latest strikes are even more muted -- for numerous reasons.

The EU is in the middle of avoiding a transatlantic trade war with hopes of some sort of a deal being struck over the summer.

It’s also on the eve of a crucial NATO summit in which it hopes that the United States stays committed to defending Europe and that Trump won’t slam European defense spending laggards too much.

And eastern EU countries are still hoping that it can persuade Washington to maintain troop levels in their countries amid talks of sweeping reductions.

With the latest conflict in the Middle East, there has even been opportunistic chatter that the US presence in Europe might be beefed up given the potential spill-over effect on the continent.

So, expect Europe to express worry and call for diplomatic solutions., but not much else.