Since the collapse of the Soviet Union more than three decades ago, rival South Caucasus neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars that have killed tens of thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more.
Now, their leaders appear set to sign a peace treaty aimed at ending hostilities over Azerbaijan's mostly ethnic-Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Baku retook from Armenian separatists in September 2023 following a lightning offensive.
"This announcement signals a real opportunity to finalize and sign the long-awaited bilateral treaty,” said Richard Giragosian, head of the Regional Studies Center, an independent think tank in Yerevan.
Baku and Yerevan announced last week that they had finalized the text of the historic peace deal, though it remains unclear exactly when their leaders would sign it.
The deal is seen as a significant breakthrough to end a grueling conflict in a region where the United States, Russia, the European Union, Turkey, and Iran jostle for influence.
Under the deal, the two neighbors would establish formal relations, with Yerevan recognizing Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh after resisting it since 1991.
Constitutional Changes
The two sides have reportedly agreed on the sticky issue of removing a reference in Armenia’s constitution to its 1991 declaration of independence that endorses Yerevan’s territorial claims over the region.
SEE ALSO: A Constitutional Amendment That Could Lead To Peace Between Armenia And AzerbaijanBut an amendment to the Armenian Constitution would require a national referendum that could potentially delay the agreement’s conclusion.
Giragosian argues, however, that in the absence of any last-minute disputes, the deal “offers a chance to move beyond the deadlock in diplomacy between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
The constitutional changes could not be implemented before June of next year, he said.
Some analysts see the issue as a potential stumbling block. Azerbaijani political analyst Rauf Mirgadirov said this time frame would likely prevent the peace deal from materializing soon.
“If the document does not guarantee mutual recognition of territorial integrity, then it is not a true peace agreement, regardless of what it is called," Mirgadirov said.
He said a comprehensive peace deal “requires unconditional recognition of each other's territorial integrity.”
International Optimism
News of the agreement was welcomed with optimism internationally.
Washington praised Baku and Yerevan for concluding talks on a "historic peace treaty.”
"This is an opportunity for both countries to turn the page on a decades-old conflict in line with President [Donald] Trump's vision for a more peaceful world,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a March 14 statement.
SEE ALSO: US Commends Armenia, Azerbaijan On Historic Peace AgreementFrench President Emmanuel Macron said the development “should pave the way for a lasting peace in the South Caucasus.”
European Council President Antonio Costa called the deal “a decisive step towards the full normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the opening of the region.”
In Yerevan and Baku, residents expressed mixed feelings about the agreement, with lingering distrust and skepticism clouding their hopes for peace and a new beginning.
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Armenians And Azerbaijanis React To News Of Peace Deal
“It won’t change anything,” a man who declined to give his name told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service in Yerevan. “What agreement has ever been more than just words on paper? Why would this one be any different?”
“If there is peace, it will already be good for the people,” a woman in the Armenian capital, who also asked not to be named, said. “There will be no war. It will be better.”
One elderly woman in Baku said they would be very happy if the agreement achieves lasting peace.
“Let mothers not be afraid, let children not be afraid,” she told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service.
One man in Baku said Azerbaijanis have little trust in Armenia’s commitment to a peace deal.
“We hope for the best, but it is very difficult,” he said.