Trump Says Cease-Fire 'Now In Effect' In Iran-Israel Conflict

Serhiy Danylov, the deputy director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Ukraine, has been talking to Current Time about the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and Russia's role in the region.

Here's what he had to say about potential responses from Tehran:

Well, there are three options. Terrorism -- the weapon of the weak and the poor. Terror is very cheap. But in this case, the Iranians have always acted through proxies. Here, the Americans are warning that they will interpret any terrorist act as a direct attack on the United States, meaning that American bombings of Iran will continue.

A strike on American military bases-- that’s the most obvious and most widely anticipated consequence. But there are nuances here as well. The bases vary in significance. There’s a base in Iraq that has been shelled multiple times, once by the Iranians themselves. In other cases, by proxies -- specifically, Iraqi Shi'ite militias. There are far more important bases -- in Qatar, in Bahrain, or the air base in Qatar.

I don’t really believe that the [Iranian] response will be very loud or very strong. More likely, it will be some kind of middle-ground option -- symbolic, just enough for the Iranian regime to say, 'We responded, we crushed the enemy.' [...] If they strike an Iraqi base, for example, it will mean that the incident is, so to speak, concluded. And that’s it, move on.

As for the third option -- blocking the Strait of Hormuz -- I don’t really believe in that either, for many reasons. They would only block the strait in the event of existential threats -- meaning, when the regime decides it no longer matters because they’re going to be swept away or destroyed by external aggression anyway.

He also had this to say about how the latest developments may affect Iranian perceptions of Russia:

In Iran, frustration and dissatisfaction with Russia are growing—both within the establishment and among ordinary citizens. Russia is perceived as a country that trades away Iran’s interests, and clearly, that perception is accurate. Russia is seen as a traitor, as one that made promises and failed to deliver.

Now, obviously, the Iranians will be asking, for example, for ammunition for the Pantsir-S1 air defense system, which they actively use and which is one of the few capabilities they still have left.

They’ll ask for missiles for air defense, or just air defense equipment in general -- but they won’t get anything. Perhaps some ammunition might arrive by sea, but overall, Russia can’t really do anything for Iran right now.

In fact, I think it doesn’t even want to -- because for Russia, its relationship with Donald Trump is much more important than its relationship with Iran.

Loud explosions rocked parts of Tehran after US President Donald Trump suggested he might welcome the toppling of the government in Iran despite members of his administration insisting that recent attacks on the country were not intended to bring about “regime change."

The Israeli Air Force said it was striking targets in Tehran on June 23 with witnesses reporting loud explosions.

The Israeli air force said in a statement it had begun "a series of strikes toward military targets in Tehran." It did not elaborate and the extent of the damage from the attacks was not immediately clear.

Meanwhile Iranian state television said the underground nuclear facility at Fordow, one of the focuses of weekend attacks by the United States, was hit again. Israeli media, quoting unnamed sources, said the attacks were on roads leading to the complex, and not directly on the facility itself.

Iran also launched a new round of air strikes targeting Israel in the early morning hours of June 23.

Earlier in the day, Trump said "monumental damage" had been inflicted on Iran's main nuclear facilities, adding that "obliteration is an accurate term" to be used to describe the effects of US bombing of the sites.

“It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!” Trump also wrote on his Truth Social platform.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on June 23 the US bombing likely resulted in "very significant" damage to the Fordow uranium enrichment plant, which is dug into a mountain in central Iran.

To read the full story, click here:

Iran's nuclear facility of Fordow was hit again on June 22 in an Israeli attack, the spokesperson for Qom Province's Crisis Management Headquarters said, according to the semofficial Tasnim news agency, a day after the US struck the same target.

SEE ALSO:

Iran's Fordow Nuclear Facility: A Target Too Deep For Israeli Weapons Alone

Here' s some more from RFE/RL's Radio Farda on the reported Israeli strikes on Tehran:

Iranian media reports and images posted on social media indicate that Israel intensified its attacks on various areas in Tehran on June 23, with vast plumes of smoke rising from many neighborhoods in the capital.

According to reports, a building of the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB was one of the targets of the attacks. A live broadcast of the media outlet's news channel was cut off, but the station's other channels are still broadcasting.

Images of rocket fire around the city of Karaj, west of Tehran, have also been published.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the area around Iran's notorious Evin prison has also been bombed.

There has been no word yet on possible damage or casualties.

The attacks intensified after Iran targeted various parts of Israel from north to south with heavy missile and drone attacks on June 23.

Israel’s military says it “has now begun a wave of attacks against military targets in Tehran.”

Iranian media reported “large explosions” in the capital, as “multiple strikes” targeted the city’s north and east.

The ILNA news agency said that electricity has been cut in northern Tehran following the Israeli strikes.

By RFE/RL

Iranian lawmakers have been backing calls to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade route, where more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes every day.

Tehran has in the past threatened to close the strait, which would restrict trade and impact global oil prices, but has never followed through on the threat.

Although there is apparently consensus in Iran's parliament supporting the closure of the strait, the ultimate decision lies with the country's Supreme National Security Council.

Besides Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq also rely on the narrow waterway to get their oil to China and other global markets.

The strait lies between Oman and Iran and links the Persian Gulf to the north with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond.

It is 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, and its shipping lane is just 3 kilometers wide.

Read more here...

By RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service

Ukraine's foreign minister said that Russia cannot serve as a mediator in the Middle East conflict, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Moscow for talks with senior Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin.

"They cannot be any kind of mediator... [Putin] is a war maker. We have to keep that in mind. They must be pressured into peace," Andriy Sybiha told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service on the sidelines of an EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said that Putin had offered to help mediate the Middle East conflict during a phone call between the two leaders on June 14. "Let's mediate Russia first. You can worry about this later," Trump said he told Putin.

In remarks at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 20, Putin referred to Tehran’s “legitimate right” to carry out uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy development but acknowledged what he called “Israel’s security concerns” over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Germany's foreign minister says that Iran needs to engage in direct talks with the United States following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, though the European Union remains ready to play a role in negotiations.

"Iran says it only wants to negotiate with Europe and we see that as a good sign but we do also say that's not sufficient. We want to see the United States being involved," Johann Wadephul said in Brussels on June 23 ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

"I renew my call on Iran to now be ready for talks. We have, however, been asked by the US over the last few weeks and also just now, to remain in touch and Europe does have a role," he added.

The US Department of Homeland Security has issued an advisory saying that while there are currently no specific credible threats "against the homeland," there is a "heightened threat environment" across the country after the US military launched strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites.

"The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict brings the possibility of increased threat to the homeland in the form of possible cyberattacks, acts of violence, and antisemitic hate crimes,” Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement.

The advisory expires on September 22, it added.

Israel says its forces struck further targets in western Iran on June 23. The Israeli Air Force said in a statement that more than 15 fighter jets had attacked the Kermanshah region, “destroying a number of surface-to-surface missile launch and storage sites aimed toward Israeli territory.”

The air force also said that it attacked six airfields in central, eastern, and western Iran, “damaging runways, underground bunkers, a refueling plane, and three aircraft.