The US decision to restrict intelligence assistance to Ukraine will seriously undermine Kyiv's ability to defend itself against Russia, but it will not spell the end of Ukraine's war efforts, officials and analysts have said.
Washington announced on March 5 that it was placing limitations on intelligence sharing with Ukraine, a move that followed a pause in US military assistance to Kyiv.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe said the new restrictions on intelligence sharing were rooted in US President Donald Trump's concerns over his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy's commitment to peace after a disastrous meeting between the two leaders in the Oval Office last week.
How Is Ukraine Using US Intelligence?
The exact scope, nature, and impact of US intelligence assistance to Ukraine has not been made public. Nor is it clear to what extent intelligence sharing is being paused or in which specific areas it is being suspended.
Two US defense officials told CNN on March 7 that the United States continues to share intelligence with Ukraine to aid in defensive operations but has "scaled back" the provision of intelligence that could be used for offensive strikes against Russian forces.
Several experts and politicians who spoke to RFE/RL said the United States had been providing Ukraine with crucial data -- gathered through sophisticated satellite surveillance, interception of signals, and information from human assets -- about the location and movement of Russian troops and heavy weapons and their intended attacks, among other information.
The US-based Maxar, which provides high-resolution satellite imagery, told Current Time that its Ukrainian clients were facing restricted access to data provided by the United States.
"Maxar has contracts with the US government and dozens of allied and partner nations around the world to provide satellite imagery and other geospatial data," a Maxar spokesperson told Current Time. "One of those contracts is GEGD (the Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery program), a US government program that provides access to commercial satellite imagery that has been tasked and collected by the US government. The US government has decided to temporarily suspend Ukrainian accounts in GEGD."
Intelligence shared with Ukraine has enabled its military to plan its attacks and operations and get timely warnings against incoming Russian air strikes as well as ground assaults, experts said.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, have been subjected to repeated aerial attacks.
Roman Kostenko, secretary of Ukraine's Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, said the absence of "vital" US intelligence puts the lives of Ukrainian troops and civilians "under greater danger."
"Can we [still] strike the enemy without external intelligence? Yes, of course. For example, we can strike stationary targets --such as a distant airfield -- that we already know about," said Kostenko, a former military commander, on March 5.
"But [we rely on US intelligence] to see in real time if aircraft are present there, if they are preparing for takeoff to attack Ukraine."
Ukraine also depended on US data to operate US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), among the most advanced artillery systems in the world.
Experts told RFE/RL that the intelligence pause includes targeting data for HIMARS and ATACMS, which would effectively prevent Ukraine from using them against Russia.
Advanced Systems And Spies
Describing US intelligence as "superior" and "unmatched by any other nation," New York-based Russian intelligence analyst Ruslan Leviev stated the United States possesses an extensive network of reconnaissance satellites, cutting-edge technology, and significantly greater financial resources to invest in its intelligence capabilities.
"When Russian bombers take off toward the border to launch missiles, American intelligence could detect this far in advance. [The United States] might even intercept internal communications from Russia's Defense Ministry, where orders are given to plan flights or launch attacks on specific targets. This means the United States may know about an attack even before the planes take off," Leviev told RFE/RL on March 6.
Leviev, founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent organization that investigates Russian military activities, also emphasized the United States has "more capabilities" than any other country to recruit agents on the ground.
"It is also evident that the United States has spies embedded within Russia's General Staff, the Defense Ministry, and the presidential administration, providing valuable intelligence," the analyst claimed, adding US intelligence also "intercepts electronic communications, such as e-mails between military personnel and officials responsible for shaping military policy in this war."
Can Ukraine Survive With Less US Wartime Intelligence?
Politicians and experts agree Washington's move to abruptly restrict intelligence assistance will put Kyiv's war efforts in a difficult and more disadvantaged position than before.
But some Ukrainians hope the country can fill the data gap with information provided by other Western allies as well as from its own sources.
France has said its intelligence sharing with Ukraine has not been affected by the US freeze. According to British media reports, the United Kingdom will continue to provide intelligence to Ukraine, although it will not pass on data it has obtained from the United States.
Roman Bezsmertniy, a former Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus, said it is "incorrect" to attribute all the intelligence critical to Kyiv's offensive and defensive operations "solely to US agencies, particularly operational-tactical intelligence."
"France, Germany, Britain, Italy, and Canada have similar intelligence-gathering capabilities. There is no shortage of intelligence, and acquiring such information is not a problem," Bezsmertniy said on March 6.
In a similar comment, Mykola Melnyk, an expert at the Kyiv-based analytical group Leviathan, said the US intelligence pause will not mean a "catastrophe" for Kyiv as long as it has the help of "the quite powerful intelligence structures of countries like Britain and France."
Many experts, however, point out that the intelligence supplied by other Western allies and obtained by Ukraine itself cannot match that of the United States in scope and quality and can only partially fill the gap left by the US pause.
"The information that our US military partners provided us with was very diverse, and at the moment it is difficult to estimate what its absence will cost us," Ukrainian military analyst Serhiy Bezkrestnov said.
"Our armed forces continue to operate with the resources we have now, and we must deal with it. We do not have any other choice," Bezkrestnov said.
