Europe
What 'Unprecedented' US Tariffs Mean For Europe
US President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement to raise tariffs to the highest level in more than 100 years has sent stock markets tumbling and shaken the global economy.
"This is unprecedented in the last century in terms of the scale of tariffs, the number of countries hit, [and] just the sheer level of these tariffs," Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told RFE/RL.
"I think we're going to see shocks that you can't fully anticipate because we've never seen this sort of high level of tariffs in the era of globalization," she said.
That worldwide fallout could hit the European Union particularly hard, economists who spoke to RFE/RL said.
The direct impact of Trump's 20 percent levy on EU products has sparked fears of coming inflation and about the economic outlook for the 27-country bloc's embattled manufacturers, who are already reeling from US levies on cars and steel. Experts say other major sectors, such as Europe's pharmaceutical industry, which exports heavily to the US market, could also be hard-hit.
"These pharmaceutical firms will try to sell into the US as much as they can," Reid I'Anson, a senior economist at the trade intelligence firm Kpler, told RFE/RL. "They may drop their prices a little bit to try and stay competitive, but it is very likely that outright demand in the US for European goods will decline. That will flow through to a weaker economic environment in Europe."
How Hard Will Trump's Tariffs Hit Europe?
Tariffs are essentially a tax paid by an importer that are usually passed on to distributors, wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately, to consumers.
About 60 countries that run the largest trade surpluses with the United States -- including key allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea -- now face extra tariffs higher than the flat 10 percent levy announcement, with dozens of others facing tariffs that could extend to 50 percent or more in total.
During his announcement in the White House's Rose Garden, Trump said the basic 10 percent tariff on almost all countries takes effect on April 5, while the higher so-called reciprocal tariff rates would apply starting April 9.
While economists say the tariff regime announced by Trump is set to make levied goods in the country more expensive, it will also affect industries in Europe and elsewhere that rely on exporting to the US market.
"European exporters selling things to the United States are going to have to pay a higher cost, which is passed on to American consumers, but it's going to affect their ability to sell things [and] they're going to lose market share," Matthew Goodman, director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told RFE/RL.
Brussels and individual European governments are still deciding how to react and further negotiations could take place, but the prospect of retaliatory tariffs placed on US products is real, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying the bloc is "now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail."
Goodman says any retaliation from Europe will raise costs for European consumers and would also raise inflation and slow growth in the United States.
"That has big implications for everybody in the world because [the United States is] the largest economy in the world, and if our economy slows, then everybody gets hit," he said.
CNAS's Kilcrease, who is a former deputy assistant US trade representative, says Trump's tariffs could also have knock-on effects for Europe, including higher prices and even job losses for key industries.
"I'd actually be quite worried about jobs impacts and about investment impacts because you just don't have that customer anymore, or it's just going to be much harder with a 20 percent tariff to sell into that market," she said.
How Will The Global Impact Of Trump's Tariffs Affect Europe?
The new US tariffs could also have global fallout, affecting the price of key products that rely on global supply chains and reorienting the flow of international trade in unexpected ways.
The price of an iPhone, for instance, could increase by 30 to 40 percent in the United States, according to projections by the financial firm Rosenblatt Securities.
The cheapest iPhone 16 model is currently listed at $799 but could cost as much as $1,142 if Apple decided to pass the cost on to consumers. A more expensive iPhone 16 Pro Max that currently retails at $1,599 could rise to nearly $2,300. Similar percentage increases are projected for other markets.
"This is going to have ripple effects, and it's going to feed through the many different things that go into an iPhone, from the semiconductors made in Taiwan to the glass that is made in Japan, to the assembly of the iPhone in China," said Goodman. "All these things are going to be hit with tariffs, and so the price is ultimately going to be passed on to consumers, both in Europe and in the United States."
Washington's escalating trade war with Beijing will also come with worldwide repercussions that will hit Europe directly and indirectly.
China announced on April 4 that it will impose additional tariffs of 34 percent on imports from the United States in retaliation for duties of the same amount unveiled by Trump. The "reciprocal" tariff placed on China is on top of a 20 percent levy already imposed by the Trump administration.
Trump also targeted countries through which Chinese companies have been diverting products to the US market, among them Vietnam, which faces a new tariff of 46 percent.
As Kpler's I'Anson explains, the United States accounts for around 25 percent of Chinese exports, but with that market now saddled with tariffs, Chinese exporters will have to cut prices and reorient those products to other markets.
This could in turn lead to a flood of discounted Chinese imports around the world, something Brussels has said it is already tracking and preparing countermeasures to protect its manufacturers from.
"It's very possible that there could be this flood of goods coming into Europe in a way that causes real economic problems for Europeans," Kilcrease said. "It may cause another drag on the competitiveness of European firms who are making those same sorts of goods."
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EU Mulls Black Sea Security Hub To Counter Russian Threats
The European Union hopes to set up a "Black sea maritime security hub" to counter Russia's action in the region and to protect critical maritime infrastructure.
The plan is part of a wider EU strategy that was presented on May 28 by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to forge closer cooperation with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine.
The document, titled The European Union's Strategic Approach To The Black Sea Region, was seen by RFE/RL.
It notes that Brussels should help by "building up maritime capacities and enablers regarding sea monitoring, including for observation of a possible maritime ceasefire, mine cleaning efforts, protection of critical infrastructure, patrolling of commercial sea lines, countering hybrid threats, with the aim of deterring future aggressions in the region and, when conditions allow, to consolidate peace."
There is no indication as to where the hub would be situated or which countries would be included.
But the text notes it should deal with issues such as "maritime situational awareness, real-time monitoring from space to seabed, and early warning of potential threats and malicious activities."
The hub would focus on things such as submarine cables, offshore installations, and gas and wind energy operations off the Romanian and Bulgarian shores.
The paper comes amid planning by European nations of some sort of reassurance force in Ukraine in case of a permanent cease-fire in the Russian war.
While the United Kingdom and France are leading the way in terms of placing boots on the ground, Turkey has already, according to RFE/RL sources, suggested it would lead the maritime component of such a force, notably by assuring safe passage in the Black Sea and potentially clear up mines.
While the document doesn't refer directly to any reassurance force for Ukraine, it does highlight increased cooperation with Ankara to secure peace in and around the Black Sea.
"Turkey can play a constructive role on countering Russia's shadow fleet, and contributing to efforts to enhance maritime safety, energy security and connectivity in line with international law and relevant conventions," it says.
A specific Black Sea strategy was promised by European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen after being re-elected as European Commission President in late 2024.
The idea is that Kallas now should organize "a dedicated EU ministerial meeting with partner countries in the Black Sea region to develop and advance different aspects of cooperation under the new EU approach to the Black Sea region based on a jointly agreed way forward."
The EU already has such dedicated meetings with foreign ministers from EU hopefuls in the Western Balkans and did previously with the Eastern Partnership countries -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
While the text doesn't contain any new financial pledges or concrete legislative proposals, it offers some indication of the European Commission thinking on some countries in the region.
In thinly veiled criticism of the increasingly anti-EU government in Tbilisi, the text notes that "the EU's role and responsibility in the Black Sea region is increasing, particularly with the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova; and with Georgia, should the country revert to the EU path."
Human rights are not mentioned, with the document focusing on three areas: "enhancing security, fostering growth and prosperity and promoting environmental protection, climate change resilience and preparedness."
While Brussels previously would have mentioned some criticism of Azerbaijan, notably the lack of free and fair elections and a shrinking space of civil society in the country, the current strategy only mentions Baku in terms of energy cooperation and fighting climate change.
"Cooperation with regional partners, particularly Azerbaijan, is one among the essential actions to support the EU's efforts to phase out remaining Russian energy imports and accelerate energy diversification, as outlined in the RePowerEU Roadmap, thereby strengthening EU's energy security.
As host of COP29 Azerbaijan furthermore committed itself to decarbonization and the multilateral process, which is a core priority for the EU."
Merz Comments Put Spotlight On Taurus Cruise Missiles For Ukraine
Remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on allowing Ukraine to fire Western-supplied missiles at military targets deep inside Russia have rekindled debate about supplying Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv amid a visit to Berlin by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on May 28.
Ukraine has long requested the German-Swedish weapons system, which can deliver a heavy payload with high precision on targets some 500 kilometers away.
Germany is the second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the United States. Yet Merz's predecessor, Olaf Scholz, declined to supply Taurus missiles amid Kremlin threats that it would make Berlin a party to the war.
"German dithering under Scholz handed Russia an operational advantage and allowed them to adapt their defenses and tactics," John Foreman, a former British military attache in Moscow and Kyiv, told RFE/RL.
"Adding belatedly another string to Ukraine's bow would be good. But I'm unconvinced it will change the trajectory of the war," he added.
What Long-Range Missiles Does Ukraine Have?
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western countries have provided Kyiv with a variety of weapons capable of hitting targets far behind Russian lines.
The United Kingdom and France have supplied Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles, which have a range of about 250 kilometers, while Washington has sent its Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) with a range of some 300 kilometers.
These weapons were originally supplied with the proviso that they would only be used on targets in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.
But in November last year then-President Joe Biden's administration said Ukraine could use ATACMS in Russia's Kursk region, where its forces were fighting to hold a small chunk of Russian territory.
Shortly afterward there were reported uses of Storm Shadow/Scalp within Russia. Merz now appears to have commented on these developments.
"The countries that imposed range restrictions have long since abandoned these conditions," he said on May 27.
"Ukraine has the right to use the weapons it receives -- including to use them beyond its own national borders against military targets on Russian territory."
The remarks clarified a statement during a TV interview the previous day, which implied that this was a new policy as well as sparking renewed speculation about Germany supplying Ukraine with Taurus missiles.
"The main issue is that our partners provide us with the means to strike, both Scalps and the German Taurus. If they do it will help us quite a bit," Ukrainian lawmaker Roman Kostenko told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service.
Roman Svitan, a Ukrainian military analyst, took a similar line in comments to RFE/RL's Russian Service.
"First, one should provide those missiles and then grant permission to use them wherever. Ukraine has no such Western missiles left. We have nothing to fire," he said.
Not A Game-Changer
Foreman, the UK military attache, warned that the Taurus system would not be a game-changer.
"Russia has adapted considerably over the last three years, in particular by dispersing its forces, changing its tactics, and improving its kinetic and nonkinetic defenses," he said.
"These steps have reduced (but not removed) vulnerability to Ukrainian missile strikes in the Russian rear areas…. A few missile strikes by Taurus won't affect this dramatically."
Still, getting an announcement could boost Ukrainian morale and would give Zelenskyy a political victory. Merz's comments drew a negative response from Moscow.
"These potential decisions, if they have been made, are completely at odds with our aspirations for a political settlement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
These are "quite dangerous decisions," he added.
There was no immediate official response from London, Paris, or Washington, a silence that aligns with a strategy Berlin has dubbed "strategic ambiguity." Broadly speaking, it means not telegraphing military strategy to Moscow. And it's something of a departure for Merz.
Merz's Changing Views On Taurus
Merz views on Taurus have changed over time. While in opposition, he fiercely criticized what he saw as the German government's timidity over support for Ukraine -– and demanded openness on military supplies.
In November 2023, he submitted a motion in parliament calling for "finally, without delay, satisfying the Ukrainian request for Taurus cruise missiles." The motion was defeated.
By October last year, Merz's position had morphed. In a parliamentary debate, he said the government should give Moscow an ultimatum: either stop attacking civilian targets in Ukraine, or Germany will supply the Taurus.
In his comments on May 26, he did not mention Taurus but may have hinted at it.
"We will do everything we can to support Ukraine. This means no more range restrictions for weapons we supply," he wrote on social media.
Yet he may not be speaking about Taurus missiles. Germany has also provided Ukraine with Mars II rocket launchers, which have a range of some 85 kilometers.
There are obvious military reasons for "strategic ambiguity" but also political ones. Merz's coalition partners, the Social Democrats, have opposed supplying Taurus, and opinion polls show it is deeply unpopular with the German public.
It has been suggested that, for this reason, Merz is no longer so keen on the idea and may now be inclined to instead help Ukraine develop its own long-range capabilities.
In any case, it could be that the first the world hears about Taurus missiles being supplied to Ukraine will be if and when they are fired.
- By Mike Eckel
In Italian Court, Another Verdict Looms In Saga Of Artyom Uss's Great Escape
After Artyom Uss, a Russian businessman and son of a powerful Kremlin-connected governor, escaped from Italian house arrest two years ago, investigators spent months honing in on a motley Balkan crime gang that smuggled him home to Russia.
The trail of evidence led from the suburbs of Milan to Zagreb, to Belgrade, and to the sprawling Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk, where Uss hailed from. US prosecutors, who had indicted Uss on charges of smuggling Western military technology and issued an arrest warrant, were involved.
Uss has since dropped out of public view. So has the group that allegedly abetted his escape. A Bosnian man was released from Croatian custody after cooperating with Italian prosecutors. A Serbian man who mysteriously joined a Russian expedition to the North Pole also gave testimony.
Now comes the latest development in the saga: A Geneva-based Russian lawyer named Dmitry Chirakadze is set to be sentenced by a Milan court for his alleged role in organizing Uss's March 2023 escape. A verdict could come as early as May 22.
In closing arguments earlier this month, Milan prosecutors requested a 5 ½ year prison sentence for Chirakadze, who has been in custody since being arrested in Rome in June 2024 as he arrived from Sardinia. He is reportedly an owner of a luxury hotel on the Italian island.
The lead prosecutor, Giovanni Tarzia, did not respond immediately to an e-mail from RFE/RL seeking comment.
The son of Aleksandr Uss, then the governor of the massive Russian region of Krasnoyarsk, Artyom Uss, was arrested at the Milan airport in October 2022, a month after a US grand jury secretly indicted him on smuggling charges.
Along with a Russian business partner and four others, Uss was accused of using a German company to smuggle military and dual-use technologies to Russia in violation of Western sanctions -- including the kinds of electronics that later showed up on the battlefield in Ukraine.
From Milan To Moscow: Inside The Twisting Plot Behind Artyom Uss's Escape
Previous RFE/RL investigations on this topic:
Uss was held, pending an Italian court ruling on the US extradition request. He was held not in police custody but under house arrest, living in a townhouse in a housing development south of Milan.
In March 2023, days before he was set to be extradited, Uss escaped from house arrest, breaking an electronic monitoring bracelet. He was driven across Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, and into Belgrade, where he later flew to Moscow and later to Krasnoyarsk.
The escape embarrassed Italian authorities. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the circumstances behind his flight deserved further scrutiny. It also infuriated US prosecutors, who had warned Italian counterparts that Uss was a flight risk.
In the months that followed, Italian investigators and US authorities identified a group of seven men and women from Bosnia, Serbia, and Slovenia who were alleged to have organized Uss's escape.
A Bosnian man was indicted by US prosecutors in December 2023 in connection with the escape and arrested in Zagreb. He later cooperated with the Italian investigation and was released. A Slovenian man was arrested by Slovenian police on an Italian warrant in January 2024 and was later released.
Also implicated was a Serbian businessman named Srdjan Lolic who joined a Russian expedition to the North Pole in April 2023, less than a month after he allegedly helped Uss escape. He traveled via Krasnoyarsk.
While at the North Pole, Lolic was seen dancing along with the region's vice governor, and he also bragged about dining with Aleksandr Uss, the governor, and attending an Orthodox mass with him.
Lolic could not be reached for comment.
After resigning as Krasnoyarsk's governor, Aleksandr Uss became a lawmaker in Russia's upper house of parliament.
In June 2024, meanwhile, Chirakadze was flying from Sardinia to Switzerland, when he was detained at Rome's airport by Italian police.
In addition to owning a luxury resort in Sardinia, Chirakadze owned a hunting estate in Krasnoyarsk. In Russia, he is also known for his part in establishing Pravo.ru, an online legal publication and resource popular with the Russian legal community.
In closing arguments earlier this month, Tarzia, the lead Milan prosecutor, told the court that Lolic had testified via video conference from Serbia and implicated a now-deceased Russian lawmaker from Krasnoyarsk.
According to the Milan newspaper Correiere Della Serra, Lolic testified that the dead lawmaker contacted Lolic and asked him to meet with Chirakadze, who prosecutors said was the lead mastermind behind Uss's escape.
Chirakadze's defense lawyer, Tatiana Della Marra, did not respond to e-mail inquiries.
Uss could not be located for comment. However, his Russian lawyer told the business newspaper Vedomosti that Chirakadze was not involved in the escape, and he accused Italian authorities of "hostage taking."
"Chirakadze was organizing Artyom's legal defense, and obviously could not have had anything to do with his escape from house arrest," Aleksei Tikhomirov was quoted as saying.
- By Ray Furlong and
- Rikard Jozwiak
Does The EU Still Have The Sanctions Cards Needed To Hurt Russia?
With the ink still drying on the European Union's freshly printed 17th sanctions package on Russia, work is already under way on a next step that European leaders say will be "massive."
But some analysts warn that, in many ways, the EU has already played its best cards and doesn't have many left, especially at a time when Washington seems reluctant to join in as it pushes peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.
"The cards that we still have to play largely include measures for which we would need the United States," Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the Kyiv-based KSE Institute, a think tank, told RFE/RL.
"Specifically, this would be about removing Russian oil and gas from global markets in volume," he said, adding that counties such as India, China, and Turkey would not stop buying Russian fossil fuels without the weight of secondary US sanctions.
European leaders threatened Russia with "massive" sanctions on May 10 if Moscow did not agree to a 30-day cease-fire proposed by Washington. They said they were making their demand after coordinating it with US President Donald Trump.
It was meant to appear as a game-changing moment, but the apparent transatlantic concord quickly went awry.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not commit to a cease-fire during a phone call with Trump on May 19, yet Trump praised the call and did not appear ready to announce new US sanctions saying imposing them now could imperil talks and make the situation "much worse."
To be clear: The "massive" sanction threat had nothing to do with the 17th package of EU measures announced on May 20, as this had already been some time in the works.
An Empty Threat?
European leaders may need to deliver something big by themselves, without US involvement -- or appear to have made an empty threat.
Can they deliver?
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys thinks so. He told RFE/RL that the EU could redouble its efforts on Russia's energy exports.
"We should stop the major income to Russia's budget and major income to their war machine. This is the exports of gas, oil, LNG. We have to stop those," he said.
But in practice, countries such as Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium are actually importing more LNG, or liquified natural gas, now than they were a year ago. Budrys argued there were plenty of alternatives on the global market.
"There are voices that say, 'Oh, they're too expensive and it will cost us too much, we can't afford this.' Look, we (Lithuania) already did this," he added.
But the arguments about price illustrate that the self-harming impacts of sanctions have held the EU back in the past, and may do in the future, too.
Sanctions will be "massive, only when we are willing to go further than we would like to go," Tom Keatinge of the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told RFE/RL.
"By that I mean only when we're willing to inflict sanctions that have a degree of blowback on our own economies," he added.
Hitting Energy Exports
Hilgenstock makes a distinction between countries using Russian LNG for economic reasons and countries such as Hungary and Slovakia that would oppose an import ban due to their close political relationship with Moscow.
Even if economic objections can be overcome, political considerations can also delay or complicate a significant tightening of sanctions in this area.
European leaders have suggested that the next sanctions package will include the energy sector, but that's a broad term. Some have also suggested financial measures.
"It's relatively unclear what they are actually talking about," said Hilgenstock, who is also an Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
"Are they overselling what they can deliver? I think they are."
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen did provide some indication of what might come next in remarks on May 16.
"It will include working on listing more vessels of the Russian shadow fleet," she said, referring to ships without clear ownership used to evade restrictions on Russian oil and oil products.
The 17th sanctions package, along with British measures announced the same day, already added dozens of ships, following the pattern of previous packages. As such, adding new ships would appear like further cumulative action rather than something bold and new.
'All Talk And No Trousers'
Von der Leyen also mentioned reducing the oil price cap for Russian oil, another punitive measure imposed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But this too would require US agreement for global enforcement.
Three years of sanctions have had a big impact on the Russian economy but have not stopped Moscow's aggression.
Still, announcing the latest measures, European politicians were resolute.
UK Foreign Minister David Lammy called Putin a "warmonger" while urging him to agree to the 30-day cease-fire, adding that "delaying peace efforts will only redouble our resolve to help Ukraine to defend itself and use our sanctions to restrict Putin's war machine."
EU Foreign Affairs chief Kaja Kallas wrote on social media that "more sanctions on Russia are in the works."
Keatinge warns that not following through with genuinely impactful sanctions risks undermining credibility.
"It gives plenty of ammunition to [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov and others to basically say…the Europeans are all talk and no trousers."
Hilgenstock shares the concern.
"We're seeing Vladimir Putin's response, or rather non-response to this ultimatum," he says, referring to the May 10 statement on "massive" sanctions.
"That makes clear what the Russian side thinks."
- By Ray Furlong
Former NATO Chief Rasmussen Says Plan For European Force In Ukraine 'Moving Too Slowly'
Former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen has told RFE/RL that preparations for a European force to deploy to Ukraine after a cease-fire or peace deal are "moving too slowly" and that the whole European security model was "at a turning point."
"I don't want to see a coalition of the willing becoming a coalition of the waiting," Rasmussen said, referring to a plan announced with fanfare by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London on March 2.
Since then, there has been a series of meetings at various levels. Yet key questions about the mission's mandate, its rules of engagement, and who would be sending troops, have yet to be publicly answered.
"Typically, in Europe, we spend a lot of time discussing and talking, and too little efforts are spent on taking action," Rasmussen said.
"However, I do hope that Putin's attack on Ukraine and the election of Trump would be wake-up calls that tell us in Europe that we have to move fast."
Rasmussen was speaking in a wide-ranging interview on military issues, economic security, and US President Donald Trump's repeated talk of seizing Greenland from Denmark.
He was Danish Prime Minister before serving as NATO Secretary General from 2009-2014.
"It's shameless to threaten Denmark, a close ally, with military means to conquer Greenland," Rasmussen said.
"I don't think it will happen. But obviously, there is a potential for creating a split within NATO when you are threatening an ally."
Since leaving his NATO role, Rasmussen has created the Alliance for Democracies, a nonprofit organization that seeks to counter what it describes as the global rise of "autocrats and dictators."
Double Defense Spending
Last week the group announced a five-point plan for European defense that included a call to boost defense budgets to 4 percent of GDP by 2028.
This follows moves by the European Union and Europe's military big guns (Britain, France, and Germany) to increase defense spending in the coming years, but it goes well beyond the plans announced so far.
"Russian defense investment is now bigger than the combined defense investment in the rest of Europe. So, we have to step up. We have to at least double the European investment in defense," Rasmussen told RFE/RL.
"For too long, we have relied on a model that doesn't work any longer, a combination of cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from China, and cheap security from the US."
The convergence of security and economic issues was a major theme at a conference Rasmussen hosted in Copenhagen last week, where the five-point plan was discussed.
An Economic NATO
The 72-year-old political and diplomatic veteran singles out the Trump administration's global tariffs as a new danger that has created the need for a kind of economic NATO.
"The Trump administration declared a trade war against the whole world except Russia and North Korea," he said.
"I would suggest to create what we call D7, seven democracies in the world, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand. And I think the backbone of that should be what we would call an economic Article 5. We would consider an attack or coercion against one of those seven countries an attack on all, and we should respond collectively."
It's striking indeed to hear a former NATO chief excluding the United States from a list of global democracies.
"Yes, but the United States have chosen isolationism.... I don't see an American willingness to exercise the global leadership of the free world. So that's why the US is excluded from this D7," Rasmussen said.
Governments around the world are wrestling with the best response to Trump's tariffs. Closer cooperation and trade with other partners are certainly a part of their calculations.
But, as with defense spending, Rasmussen's proposals go well beyond what's being considered in most capitals.
For example, the European Union's much-touted free trade agreement with four South American nations in the Mercosur group has been cited as part of the EU's collective response to a new environment, but France is still hugely wary of ratifying it.
Meanwhile, the EU and individual countries have all responded separately to US tariffs, seeking to negotiate with Washington rather than form a common front.
Rasmussen offers no easy answers to untangling the complex web of interests that make it difficult for multiple nations to forge new global structures. But, he says, it's the challenge that must be overcome.
"For the 19th consecutive year, we have seen a decline in global freedom and democracy. So now it's time to create a stronger cooperation," he said.
"I know from experience with Putin and other autocrats that they only respect power, unity, and a firm stance…. If we act together, if we act in unity, then we can counter the advancing autocracies."
Turnout High As Romanians Choose New President After Months Of Chaos, Controversy
BUCHAREST -- Romanians turned out in droves to vote in the second round of a controversial presidential election, a vote that followed months of unprecedented political chaos.
Turnout by late afternoon on May 18 exceeded 53 percent of eligible voters -- sharply higher than during the first round, with voters outside Romania casting a higher number of ballots than anticipated over two days of voting.
Turnout was also higher than last November's initial vote, which was annulled amid accusations of Russian meddling in the campaign.
The run-off pits ultranationalist candidate George Simion against centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.
Simion was drafted in as a replacement for Calin Georgescu, who was not allowed to run after he won a first round of voting in November.
Simion built on Georgescu's success, as he scored some 41 percent support in the first round of voting on May 4. Dan was a distant second on nearly 21 percent.
In most polls conducted since then, Simion has been ahead though the most recent surveys put the candidates neck-and-neck.
In terms of powers, the president appoints the prime minister, subject to parliamentary approval, and represents Romania at NATO and EU summits. He can also wield the country's EU veto.
"We came out because we hope for a change, we need many things to change for the better in Romania, especially us young people," said Elena Lupu, a 30-year-old voter casting her ballot in a Bucharest polling precinct.
"We want a better future. We want [people] to stop leaving the country. We want to stay here, to have united families, to have jobs for young people," she told RFE/RL's Romanian Service.
Who Is George Simion?
Simion is pledging to completely overturn Romania's politics, taking a Euroskeptic attitude within the European Union and ending support for Ukraine.
"Our position is…neutrality, not escalation, not supplying weapons, and perfect alignment with the policy of the Trump administration," he said on May 8.
Simion has also stressed ideological affiliation with "the MAGA movement" and posted a photo of himself online in a red baseball cap with the logo "Trump Save America."
The political affinity may be mutual, as Washington sharply criticized the decision to annul the first round of elections.
Simion has also riled Romania's neighbors. He has hinted at territorial claims on Ukraine and calls for union with Moldova, which has led to him being banned from entering both countries.
On May 19 a Moldovan court is set to reconsider his ban, which followed his arrest at a protest in the capital, Chisinau, in 2015.
A few years earlier, in 2011, he had a brush with the law in his own country, receiving a fine and six-month ban from entering soccer stadiums for racist chanting at a Romania-Bosnia match.
In December 2019, he co-founded the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) party, which is now the second-largest group in parliament. The party's website says it stands for Christian faith, low taxes, family values, and national sovereignty.
In 2023, former Moldovan Defense Minister Anatol Salaru alleged that Simion had secretly met with an agent of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in Ukraine.
Simion has denied both this incident and the wider claim that he is pro-Russian. He recently lost a court case in which he sought to sue Salaru over the allegation.
His election manifesto includes items that many critics say do not fall within the presidential powers, such cheap housing.
He has also said he would appoint Georgescu as prime minister. Georgescu, 63, has called 38-year-old Simeon "my young protege."
Who Is The Other Candidate?
Nicusor Dan is not a member of any party, winning the race to be mayor of Bucharest as an independent -- and is now seeking to do the same for the presidency. The 55-year-old entered politics in 2015, pledging to fight corruption in the capital.
A mathematician, he gained his doctorate from the Sorbonne University in Paris in 1998 before returning to work at Romania's Mathematics Institute.
It was at this time he began campaigning as an activist on issues related to illegal construction, urban planning, and heritage protection.
After two failed runs to be mayor of Bucharest, Dan was elected in 2020 and then re-elected in 2024 – despite criticism for being a poor communicator while in office.
His decision to run for president raised eyebrows, given that he had only just been given a second term in charge of the capital. Dan explained the decision by referring to the political crisis that was engulfing Romania.
"We are in a moment of balance, the most difficult since 1989," he said, adding that "too many lies" had been told in the country's political life.
Dan said fighting corruption and interest groups would be a major issue for his presidency.
On foreign policy, Dan has spoken of keeping close relations with the United States while maintaining a consistently pro-EU stance.
Speaking after the first round of voting on May 4, Dan said the next round would be "a debate between a pro-Western direction for Romania and an anti-Western one."
It's a message that has so far resonated with educated voters in big cities, which leaves him facing an uphill battle in the second round.
He has had a chance to address voters during three televised debates this week, all of which Simion pulled out of.
Senior international correspondent Ray Furlong contributed to this report.
Estonia Accuses Russia Of 'Serious Threat' To NATO After Fighter Jet Disrupts Tanker Inspection
Estonia has accused Russia of creating a "serious threat" to NATO in the Baltic Sea after a Russian fighter jet disrupted operations by the Estonian Navy to inspect an unflagged tanker that is on the United Kingdom's sanctions list.
The ship, the Jaguar, is believed to be part of Russia's "shadow fleet" that Moscow is using to avoid international sanctions imposed over its war in Ukraine.
Estonia's Navy said the vessel refused to cooperate when asked to stop.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told reporters Russia sent a fighter jet on May 15 "to check the situation, and this fighter jet violated NATO territory for close to one minute."
He added in a post on social media: "This incident is yet another example showing that Russia poses a serious threat not only through its war in Ukraine but also to the NATO alliance as a whole."
Russia has not commented on the incident, but officials have repeatedly said Russian ships have free passage in the Baltic Sea and that any attempt to stop them is dangerous.
Over the past 18 months, there have been numerous incidents in the Baltic Sea in which telecom and electricity cables, as well as gas pipelines, have been damaged.
While attribution has often proved tricky and some of the incidents could have been accidents, some European officials have pointed fingers at Russia's so-called shadow fleet.
This refers to approximately 350 vessels of opaque ownership that are believed to evade Western sanctions on Russian oil by transporting around 80 percent of the supply, with nearly 50 percent departing from Russian Baltic Sea ports.
The European Union has imposed measures on half of these vessels by barring them from calling at EU ports or getting serviced in any way by EU companies.
The recent incidents highlight rising tensions in the Baltic Sea since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago.
In January, NATO and EU leaders agreed to launch a monitoring mission of the Baltic Sea saying Russia's use of the so-called shadow fleet poses a particular threat to the maritime and environmental security in the Baltic Sea region and globally.
"This reprehensible practice also threatens the integrity of undersea infrastructure, increases risks connected to sea-dumped chemical munitions, and significantly supports funding of Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine," NATO allies said.
At More Informal EPC Summit In Tirana, EU Leaders Can 'Get Creative' On Ukraine
Leaders from across Europe will gather on May 16 on Skanderbeg Square in central Tirana for the European Political Community (EPC) summit. The EPC, an idea conceived by French President Emmanuel Macron as a direct response to the war in Ukraine, meets at the highest level twice a year with the host rotating between the 27 EU member states and the 20 non-EU countries.
Now it's Albania's turn, and the event will be something of a crowning achievement for Prime Minister Edi Rama. In power since 2013, he is already one of the most experienced operators in the room, and the meeting comes just five days after a general election in the Western Balkan republic in which his socialist party will finish on top yet again.
Brussels holds Rama in high esteem, with EU officials praising him for his diplomatic skills and sharp wit. A reflection of this is Albania's progress on joining the European Union. In less than a year it has opened a majority of the EU accession chapters and is set to open more by the end of this month.
What Is The European Political Community?
The EPC is not an EU vehicle, nor is it a substitute for EU membership as some EU hopefuls fear. Essentially it's a forum for talking shop that doesn't officially produce any concrete deliverables or a final communique; it has no permanent seat or secretariat.
While the media struggle to explain what sort of animal it is and what purpose it serves given there are so many other European institutions (such as the Council of Europe and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to name a few), leaders appear to love attending its summits.
This is largely because there is minimal official choreography compared to, for example, NATO and EU summits, which follow strict protocols. Sure, there's an opening ceremony, a plenary session, and a family photo. Leaders are then divided into three thematic roundtables focusing on security, competitiveness, and migration.
Most of the one-day gathering, however, will be devoted to various planned and spontaneous bilateral meetings that can quickly turn into larger meetings if needed. It happens without too many accredited aides and advisers, meaning a lot of diplomatic speed-dating and huddles in a nice setting with plenty to eat and drink. It offers "a little bit of freedom and creativity in their otherwise structured lives" as one diplomat put it to me.
EU Leaders Invited To EPC Summit
So far, no one's declined the invitation that went out to all European nations except Belarus, Russia, and the Vatican. The three presidents of the European Council, Commission, and Parliament will attend, as will NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
This will also be German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's first multilateral meeting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to show up even if it's not confirmed until the last minute, and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also expected to come, though he skipped some of the previous EPC summits.
At previous EPC summits, there was a political push to have Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders meet, often together with the French and German leaders, but no such attempt is expected this time around even though it can never be ruled out.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze is invited, as he was to the last one in Budapest in November. EU diplomats are keen to point out that the Tirana meeting is the EPC and not the EU, considering the latter imposed a policy not to engage with high-level Georgian officials after the contested Georgian parliamentary elections last October. If Kobakhidze shows up, it will be interesting to see how EU leaders react.
An Eye On Fico And Vucic
In a similar vein, it will be worth watching how leaders interact with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, both of whom attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, rubbing shoulders with Vladimir Putin.
Fico is largely isolated on the EU level even though no types of sanctions or punishment are in the making after his Moscow trip. Brussels warned Vucic not to make the journey to Russia, noting that as an official candidate country Serbia should align with the bloc's foreign policies.
Vucic looks set to get away with it though. A senior EU official confirmed at a background briefing ahead of the Tirana summit that Serbia will remain a candidate country and there's no consensus among member states to impose sanctions on the country.
The only consequence will be that Serbia won't advance on its EU accession path -- something that is rather moot anyway as the Balkan republic hasn't opened a single negotiating chapter in the past four years.
A Big Week For NATO
On May 14, the chiefs of defense of the military alliance's 32 members meet in Brussels for their last session before the NATO summit at The Hague next month.
Support for Ukraine and NATO missions, operations, and defense plans will all be top of the agenda.
On the same day but in the Turkish seaside resort of Antalya, Rutte will gather NATO foreign ministers for an informal two-day meeting.
The gathering is controversial given Turkey's repressive policies against the opposition, notably the recent jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
The EU's Latest Sanctions Package Against Russia Might Be Its Weakest Yet
The European Union's latest proposal for the next round of sanctions on Russia -- the 17th package since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine over three years ago -- might just be its weakest yet.
Presented by the European Commission earlier this week to the 27 EU member and seen by RFE/RL, contains no hard-hitting economic measures against the Kremlin.
Instead, it features more asset freezes and visa bans on various individuals and entities, mostly Russian citizens and companies involved in the arms industry. It also includes banning 98 more ships from Moscow's so-called shadow fleet from being serviced at EU ports, bringing the total of ships on the list to 250. And lastly, it imposes export restrictions on 35 companies, most of which are Russian but others are Kazakh, Serbian, Turkish, and Uzbek.
The goal, according to EU officials RFE/RL has spoken to, is to adopt the proposal when the bloc's foreign ministers meet on May 20. The club wants to show that Russia's numerous attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in recent weeks shouldn't go unpunished, and approval is also likely to be swift -- the new measures are so uncontroversial that even a sanctions skeptic like Hungary would be ready to give a ready thumbs-up.
According to diplomats familiar with the sanctions negotiations, Budapest will, however, request a certain proposed entity be scrubbed off the list. It's the Dubai-based Litasco, a subsidiary of the Russian energy giant Lukoil. Hungary is one of the very few EU countries still importing Russian oil. Brussels wants to target the company as it has "enabled the procurement of numerous vessels forming part of the so-called shadow fleet," according to the proposal. "These vessels have transported oil from Russia while turning off or manipulating their AIS transponders, not maintaining adequate liability insurance or other financial security, as well as carrying out unsafe maritime operations."
Sanctions On Chinese Companies
There are also questions about whether blacklisting six proposed Chinese companies will fly given that some European capitals are wary of upsetting Beijing too much given the extensive trade links between Brussels and China. The most interesting of these are Poly Technologies, which has provided components for Russian military helicopters, and Skywalker Technology, a producer of the Gerbera drone that Brussels says "has been used by the Russian military in Ukraine, in particular as a decoy drone to overwhelm Ukrainian defense systems."
While this package seems insignificant, the EU has been working on separate sanctions measures targeting Russia in parallel to the 17th package. These are more thematic sanctions consisting of asset freezes and visa bans, and are set to be adopted later in May. These include blacklistings for human rights abuses, the use of chemical weapons, and "destabilizing activities" carried out around the world.
The human rights violation package targets 28 people, all Russian judges and prosecutors, who are responsible for either targeting the deceased Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny and his associates or for sentencing Russians for spreading anti-war messages online.
The chemical weapons proliferation listings target three entities, including the Radiological Chemical and Biological Defense Troops of the Russian Defense Ministry. In its reasoning, the EU is for the first time formally accusing the Kremlin of using chemical weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The Individuals Targets
The proposal also targets 21 individuals and companies for destabilizing activities around the world. These include two people accused of being behind attacks on vehicles of the Estonian interior minister and the editor of a Russian-language newspaper in Tallinn.
Others include Elena Kolbasnikova, a Russian national accused of creating "political structures with the German anti-democratic extreme political right in support of Russia's destabilization of Ukraine," Alina Lipp, a war correspondent with the Russian armed forces in eastern Ukraine, and German blogger Thomas Roper, who "disseminates misinformation about Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and delegitimizes the Ukrainian government."
Two targeted Moldovan nationals, Ivan and Iurie Neculiti, run a Web hosting service registered in the United Kingdom called Stark, which reportedly enables "various Russian state-sponsored and affiliated actors to conduct destabilizing activities including coordinated information manipulation and interference and cyber-attacks against EU and third countries."
There are also a handful of people who allegedly spread Russian propaganda in various African countries and a Russian fishing company, Murman SeaFood. This company is the owner of a vessel that according to the EU "has repeatedly shown untypical behavior and navigation practices inconsistent with their normal fishing activities, including presence in close vicinity to an ongoing NATO military exercise and regular presence close to Norwegian critical infrastructure and military sites."
With A Whirlwind Tour And A Bulging In-Tray, Germany's New Chancellor Steps Out
Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, visits Brussels on May 9 for meetings at the European Union and NATO following a whirlwind first few days in office amid a bulging international in-tray.
Expectations are weighing heavily on Merz, who has stepped onto the global stage this week pledging to bring new vigor to both German and European foreign policy.
It's fair to say the new German chancellor got off to an embarrassing start. For the first time ever, the Bundestag had to vote twice to approve him as he fell six MPs short in the first round.
It was not quite the ringing endorsement needed for a leader of the EU's most important country.
How Will Merz Deal With The US?
Arguably the most urgent issue facing Merz is the stormy relationship with an American administration questioning almost every aspect of the liberal world order that German postwar politics of all stripes have clung to for decades.
Merz has to muster a "coalition of the willing" of largely European countries to stand behind Ukraine – and most importantly, stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
And then there are the domestic headaches: kick-starting a German economy that shrunk in both 2023 and 2024 and is projected to be insipid this year, as well, and finding an answer to the populist far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) that finished second with record numbers in February's general election and is now polling neck-and-neck with Merz's center-right Christian Democrats.
He has already secured changes to the country's rigid debt rules to allow for increased defense spending and the creation of a 500 billion euro spending splurge on infrastructure that Merz hopes will get the economy purring again -- and stave off dissatisfaction that could lead to the Afd becoming even more popular when the next election comes around in four years.
Aiming For A Strong Start With EU Leaders
It does, however, appear that it's in the foreign arena the newly minted chancellor will try to make the strongest early impression.
This week's schedule included Paris, Warsaw, Brussels, and London in a bid to shore up European unity, and Merz is likely to score some early symbolic victories.
Merz is keen to reinvigorate the Germany-France-Poland "Weimar triangle," and in French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Premier Donald Tusk he has counterparts who are on the same page on most aspects of foreign policy.
They will push for increased European defense spending, more sanctions on Russia, an opening of EU accession talks for Ukraine, and increased military support for Kyiv -- the latter by approving the transfer of German Taurus cruise missiles, something that wasn't politically possible under the previous German government.
On Britain, he will be encouraged by closer political and military cooperation to be signed off on at the first EU-UK summit since Brexit in London on May 19. His choices of the experienced Johann Wadephul as foreign minister and retention of the popular Social Democrat Boris Pistorius as defense minister have reassured partners around the world.
But then there are the tricky customers.
Dealing With Central Europe's Populists
Merz will have to grapple with Central European populists in the shape of the Hungarian and Slovak prime ministers, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico. They have stymied EU responses to support Ukraine politically and financially, and prevented bigger punishments meted out on the Kremlin.
But the biggest challenge will be US President Donald Trump.
On paper, there are numerous things that should make them tick. Both of them have been regarded as "outsiders" with minimal political executive experience before entering the highest office but with plenty of know-how of company boardrooms and lush golf greens.
Merz was also an ardent Atlanticist until recently but was, like many Germans, stung by US Vice President JD Vance's harsh critique of Europe at the Munich Security Conference in February and the treatment of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his White House visit in March.
Directly after his election victory, Merz called for Europe to make itself independent from the United States. More recently, he lashed out at American cabinet ministers and urged them to stay out of German domestic policies. This followed criticism from Washington of the decision by Germany's domestic intelligence agency to classify the AfD as an extremist organization.
But it's the practicalities that matter. And here, he still needs Washington onboard for a bit longer. He will meet the Trump both at the G7 in Canada in mid-June and then at the NATO summit at The Hague later that same month.
The two things Merz will want to ensure is American commitment to the military alliance, including the continued US military presence in Germany.
He also wants to ensure the heavily export-oriented German economy isn't facing sky-high American tariffs that for now are paused until July 8 as Brussels and Washington grapple with a potential trade deal.
Merz simply cannot afford too many more embarrassing mishaps.
EU Says Hungary's Block Could Mean Moldova's Accession Moves Forward Without Ukraine
PRAGUE -- The European Union is considering moving along in the accession process with Moldova while leaving Ukraine behind as Hungary continues to block Kyiv's membership drive.
Speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in an interview on April 28 during a visit to Prague, EU Enlargement Minister Marta Kos said she couldn't rule out a "decoupling" of the two countries as soon as June, when a raft of enlargement decisions is expected to be made in Brussels.
"We are discussing already with the member states what to do because no member state is against starting to open the first cluster (of accession chapters) with Moldova," she said, noting Hungary's opposition to Ukraine's accession.
Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, and Ukraine, torn apart by more than three years of war sparked by Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion, have so far proceeded hand-in-hand in the EU accession process.
Both applied for membership of the bloc shortly after thousands of Russian troops crossed over into Ukraine in early 2022. Last year the 27 EU member states gave both the green light to start accession talks.
The negotiations with Kyiv, however, have stalled with Budapest putting up a road block while it presses for improved rights of the Hungarian-speaking minority in Ukraine.
With all EU enlargement decisions needing unanimity, Hungary can effectively keep Ukraine out of the bloc as long as it deems necessary.
Decoupling countries vying for entrance into the bloc has been done before.
In September 2024, the EU decided to start negotiations with Albania while leaving North Macedonia behind as Skopje remained entangled in bilateral disputes with the EU member state Bulgaria over minority rights.
Could Moldova Join The EU This Decade?
During the interview, Kos, who became enlargement commissioner in December 2024, said there was even a possibility Moldova could become a member state by the time her mandate finishes in 2029.
She said it would be considered a "failure if we will not get any newcomers into the EU in the times of the present European Commission."
Confident that both Western Balkan frontrunners Albania and Montenegro could become EU countries in the upcoming three or four years, Kos also left the door open for Chisinau as well.
"Moldova is really a good student in the whole group. They really feel this historical moment," she said.
"This is something which probably we haven't seen before, because it is a peace project, because they want to belong to the community of values and democracy. They are willing to do everything possible," she said.
Kos said it was regretful that Budapest is playing politics with Ukraine's membership, with Hungary going as far as holding a consultative referendum on Ukrainian EU membership in which the Moscow-friendly Fidesz government has spoken out against Kyiv joining the club.
"Ukraine has done enough, I can tell you from my personal experience because I was facilitating the dialogue between Hungary and Ukraine. And there were many points, and Ukraine is willing to fulfill all of them. But this is not enough for Hungary," Kos said.
Is The EU Talking To Georgia Again?
In a nod to another accession candidate that has seen its candidacy run aground, Kos hinted it may be time to slowly start re-engaging with the government in Tbilisi.
Georgia also applied for EU membership in 2022 and received candidate status a year later.
But parliamentary elections in October, which Western observers noted were marred by irregularities, and controversial legislation such a foreign agent law similar to one Russia has used to stifle civil society, forced Brussels to pause the bid of the small South Caucasus republic.
Brussels also decided to freeze EU funds earmarked for the government, reinstate visa requirements for Georgian diplomatic passport holders, and suspended high-level contacts.
"The easiest way is not to talk.... But we talk to many other countries in the world which do not have candidate status," Kos said, noting that Turkey, which has had its candidate status frozen since 2019, has resumed high-level dialogue.
"We had one [discussion] on the economy, and we are planning another one on migration," she said.
When pressed if she thought something similar was on the cards for Tbilisi, she added: "We should take care, perhaps not on the highest level at the beginning or perhaps starting at the lower level, but then to see how we could explore this."
After US Snubs London Meeting, What's Europe's Game Plan For Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks?
Over the past week, European nations largely represented by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have tried their best to engage in talks between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia.
There were a number of rather successful high-level meetings in Paris on April 17 and one in London six days later that ended up being politically downgraded after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff pulled out.
The snub reportedly came over Kyiv's unwillingness to agree to a peace plan involving the recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
On April 26, US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the funeral for Pope Francis at the Vatican, but no breakthroughs were reported.
After speaking with several European diplomats familiar with the matter, it's clear that something of a game plan has emerged in response.
What Is Europe Doing Toward Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks?
The first priority is keeping the Americans onboard and keeping them talking to the Ukrainians. Exactly how successful this aim can be is up in the air, as Washington has threatened to walk away if no progress is made soon.
The officials I talked to, however, believe this could be a negotiation tactic aimed to pressure Ukraine, saying Trump has a penchant for playing tough in public only to go back to the negotiation table later -- as evidenced by the way he has enacted and retracted sweeping trade tariffs in recent weeks.
The Europeans are keen to secure what they call a "sequencing," meaning first a cease-fire observed by both sides followed by lasting peace.
The belief is that this could ensure more of Ukraine's security interests are guaranteed and that not everything is on Moscow’s terms. There is hope that Ukraine's willingness to observe a cease-fire in the past month -- and Russia's failure to do so -- shows that Kyiv is acting in good faith and not Moscow.
This would also buy the Europeans time to assemble a "reassurance force" in the Western part of Ukraine with at least some sort of American political backing, even though American participation seems off the table, according to the European diplomats I spoke with.
The current thinking is less of a "boots on the ground" presence and more toward air patrolling with the aim of securing Lviv airport and the surrounding areas as a transport hub for Ukraine.
The Europeans are also keen to continue military aid to the country.
Although there is an understanding that it might be impossible to completely fill the void left by the United States, there's hope that European money will keep flowing and the new German government in place in early May will be more forthcoming, notably on providing Kyiv with long-awaited Taurus cruise missiles.
What About The US Call To Recognize Crimea As Russian?
As for some of America's demands for a potential peace proposal, the Europeans are also crystal-clear.
There will never be a de jure recognition of Crimea as part of Russia -- unless, of course, Ukraine agrees to it. De facto recognition of the lands currently under Russian control is another matter. Ukrainian NATO membership being off the table can also be swallowed.
Several European states hid behind the United States when, under the Biden administration, it nixed the prospects of inviting Ukraine into the military alliance at both the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023 and in Washington a year later.
Eventual EU membership, though, is another matter. Brussels and all key European capitals are adamant Moscow has no say in that.
According to diplomats familiar with the proposed American peace deal, Russia accepts that Ukraine could join the bloc. A so-called Cyprus scenario, which means all of Ukraine could at some point be considered part of the club whereas in fact only those parts under Kyiv's control would be, is the most likely solution.
One thing that appears off the table for now, to much European relief, is the call for new elections in Ukraine, a point that diplomats told me has quietly disappeared from American talking points after it was initially mentioned as a potential condition. I have heard that Russia still might want to push for it.
Could Europe Relax Sanctions On Russia?
Then there are the sanctions. While the United States has offered Russia sanctions relief, the Europeans are not in favor. You would need unanimity to lift the measures now, and that unanimity simply doesn't exist.
In fact, I was told Paris and Berlin want to pile up pressure on Russia and, in particular, enact more restrictive measures in the coming weeks.
A 17th round of restrictive measures against the Kremlin was in the works already after the deadly Russian attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Sumy and Kryviy Rih earlier in April, and Brussels will now speed up those efforts.
The EU is also finalizing asset freezes and visa bans against 15 Russians accused of carrying out hybrid attacks on the EU in a separate sanctions package.
As with all things related to Russia, EU officials admit it will be hard to get Hungary to give the green light and that is why the next package is likely to be symbolic rather than hard-hitting.
They also need to secure Budapest's consent to roll over sectoral sanctions on Russia in July. There are plenty of worries that this won’t happen and that even other member states will start picking out sanctions measures they don't like, hence the scrambling for alternatives to keep the sanction measures alive.
The one item that most countries want to save are the near 200 billion euros of frozen Russian assets in the bloc, not least of all because the EU would like to use this sum as a bargaining chip against Moscow to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The windfall profits from frozen assets currently bankrolls Ukraine's military needs, and the 45 billion euro G7 loan propping up Kyiv's macrofinancial needs for 2025 is backed up using frozen assets as a collateral. So Europe will want to sustain at least some sanctions on Russia going forward.
- By RFE/RL
Trump, Zelenskyy Talk Peace Deal On Sidelines Of Pope Francis Funeral
US President Donald Trump met with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, ahead of the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican, as the two leaders look to make progress on high-stakes peace talks for the war in Ukraine.
Steven Cheung, the White House's communications director, said on April 26 that Trump and Zelenskyy "met privately today and had a very productive discussion."
This was the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy since their explosive Oval Office shouting match in late February, which led to an unprecedented diplomatic crisis. Their talk on the sidelines of the funeral comes amid Trump's calls for a high-level summit between Russia and Ukraine "to finish it off" and get a peace deal.
"Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out," Zelenskyy wrote on X in a post shared after the funeral. "Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results."
Zelenskyy added that he thanked Trump for the "good meeting" at the Vatican, and his press secretary, Serhiy Nykyforov, said the two presidents talked for around 15 minutes. Nykyforov had said earlier that Trump and Zelenskyy would meet again the same day, but later said no second meeting took place due to a tight schedule for both leaders.
Trump had earlier claimed that a deal to end the war is "very close" in a social media post and he had previously warned both sides that Washington was prepared to walk away from US-led efforts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow if an agreement was not reached soon.
The two presidents also met with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the funeral. Zelenskyy's office said that the meeting between the four leaders "was positive."
Trump presented a "final offer" to Ukraine and Russia last week to end the war. The US proposal was described to RFE/RL by a European diplomat familiar with the details and a former US diplomat familiar with the proposal also confirmed its contents.
It includes US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.
That proposal has had led to differences between not only Washington and Kyiv, but also European governments who hold additional concerns on how quickly sanctions on Russia would be lifted if a peace deal was signed, what kind of security guarantees Ukraine would have, and how Ukraine would be financially compensated.
Whether those details were discussed at the Vatican is unclear, but Trump criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin in a post on Truth Social after he left the pope's funeral, saying that recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets may require him to implement bank or secondary sanctions against Russia to achieve a lasting truce.
"There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along," Trump wrote.
On April 26, three people were killed and seven wounded in Russian shelling of the Donetsk region, local authorities said.
Eight bombs were air-dropped by Russian forces on the town of Kostyantynivka, said Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, via Telegram.
"Russians don't need peace -- they just want to destroy us all," Filashkin added.
Trump and Zelenskyy's talks on the sidelines of the funeral came after Trump envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Putin at the Kremlin on April 25.
As the funeral proceedings were under way, Putin said in a speech that Russia had regained control of Kursk, the border region where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive last year.
"The Kyiv regime's adventure has completely failed," Putin said.
The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said Ukrainian troops are still operating in Kursk and called Putin's statement untrue.
RFE/RL was not able to independently verify the battlefield claims.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 26 that Putin told Witkoff during their meeting that the Kremlin is ready to talk with Ukraine without preconditions.
A High-Profile Funeral For Pope Francis
Trump and Zelenskyy were among more than 50 heads of state gathered for Pope Francis's funeral as Roman Catholics paid tribute to a pontiff who was a humble leader and a champion of the poor, migrants, and other marginalized people.
More than a dozen royals, including Britain's Prince William, and more than 150 country representatives were also present along with some 224 cardinals and 750 bishops and priests.
China, which does not have formal relations with the Vatican, did not send a representative due to presence of an high-ranking officials from Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.
The Vatican is one of only a handful of nations to have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Israel, which was angered by Francis's criticism of its conduct in Gaza, sent its ambassador to the Vatican.
The pope died on April 21 -- Easter Monday -- at age 88 following a stroke. The Vatican said around 250,000 people filed past his body laid out in a wooden coffin in St. Peter's Basilica over the three days leading up to the funeral.
The pope’s body was dressed in red robes, a bishop’s pointed miter, and his well-worn black shoes, including scuff marks on the toe. After the service at the Vatican, his body was brought to the Santa Maria Maggiore Basilica in Rome’s Esquilino neighborhood, which lies outside the Vatican, in a procession that was greeted by crowds of supporters.
During his papacy Francis, who was selected to lead the 1.4 billion-member Roman Catholic Church in 2013, sought to create a more open-minded Church. He often advocated for the poor and marginalized, while challenging wealthy nations to help migrants and address climate change.
"He was a simple and much-loved pastor in his archdiocese, who traveled far and wide, also by subway and bus," read a one-page account of his papacy placed inside his coffin before it was sealed. "He lived in an apartment and he prepared dinner alone, so he could feel like an ordinary person."
The secretive conclave is unlikely to begin before May 6 to allow cardinals time to hold regular meetings, sum each other up, and assess the state of the church, including its financial problems and ideological divisions.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, and AFP
Could Hungarian Cardinal Erdo Succeed Pope Francis?
With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the speculation about who will succeed him as head of the Holy See is already in full swing. One of the front-runners, at least according to bookmakers, is Peter Erdo, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
With the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, the speculation about who will succeed him as head of the Holy See is already in full swing. One of the front-runners, at least according to bookmakers, is Peter Erdo, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
The 72-year-old Hungarian cardinal has held several prominent roles within the Catholic Church in recent decades and was a potential candidate to become the bishop of Rome back in 2013, when Francis ultimately was chosen.
So what chances does Erdo have to replace the Argentine? And perhaps more interestingly, what is his relationship with Hungary's increasingly authoritarian conservative prime minister, Viktor Orban?
Who Is Peter Erdo?
Make no mistake about it, Erdo is very much "papabile" -- a term used for candidates who are regarded as viable for the papacy.
Technically any baptized Catholic male is eligible, but ever since the 14th century only cardinals, the senior members of the clergy, have been selected. Currently there are 252 cardinals, but that number dwindles to 135 with voting power, as only those under 80 can cast a ballot.
Erdo could manage to secure the necessary two-thirds of the vote at the Papal Conclave that is set to commence in early May (no earlier than 16 days after the pope's passing, according to the current rules).
His cardinal resume is glittering. Between 2006 and 2016 he headed the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, a key organization representing Europe's Catholic bishops.
This is not without significance, as European cardinals still form the biggest voting bloc in the upcoming conclave. But it's not only the European credentials he has honed.
Heading the council meant that he has been in regular contact with the African, Asian, and Latin American equivalences, building up lots of links with the Global South, seen as the emerging powerhouses of the church.
The fact that he is fluent in both Italian and Latin -- two crucial languages for higher offices in this part of Rome -- and is a recognized expert in canonical law, which governs the way the Catholic Church is run, also puts him good stead among a select few.
Perhaps his crowning achievement is to have secured the International Eucharistic Congress for his hometown, Budapest, in 2021.
The congress, which typically takes place every four years, is a massive gathering of both clergy, including the pope, as well as common practitioners and involves big open-air masses.
This provided him with a perfect platform both for visibility and to secure the necessary contacts both within the Vatican and across the Catholic parishes of the world.
Perhaps his biggest strength, though, and the reason he might prevail in the end, is his pragmatism.
Although Erdo is seen as a conservative who, for example, openly speaks out against divorced Catholics receiving holy communion, he cooperated with the more progressive Francis and refrained from criticizing him openly, unlike others on the traditionalist flank.
The pope even tapped him to help organize special Vatican meetings on family issues, and Francis visited Hungary twice during his 12-year tenure.
Is Erdo Linked To Viktor Orban?
But what about Erdo's links to Hungary's ruling Fidesz party and Orban, who styles himself as a defender of Judeo-Christian values, notably against the EU institutions he claims are against both nations and Christianity in general?
The Hungarian state budget sponsors the Catholic Church, like many other recognized churches, in various ways and generously. It notably does this through direct support via financing of religious education, paying reparations for assets seized during the Communist regime, or simply bankrolling events like the above-mentioned International Eucharistic Congress.
Politically, during the migrant crisis that swept Europe in 2015, Erdo likened accepting migrants to facilitating human trafficking.
It was a statement that seemed more in line with the Hungarian prime minister's more combative approach than that of Pope Francis's more tolerant view on the matter.
Erdo did, however, shortly thereafter warn about turning religions against each other and questioned whether a continent really can be called Christian -- seemingly going against Orban's outspokenness about the so-called Islamization of Europe.
He seems to take the same pragmatic approach to the Hungarian government as he has with the various factions of the Catholic Church. While he himself has never openly endorsed the party, Catholic priests across the country have often told their congregations to vote for Fidesz.
Erdo has picked his fights carefully with Budapest. He has remained silent over some laws adopted in recent years but been vocal on others.
For example, he refused to openly criticize the regulation against homelessness passed in 2018 -- an issue that went against the teachings of Pope Francis.
When it came to the move by the Hungarian government to nationalize IVF clinics a year later, he did not hold out on criticism.
While most Vatican watchers still believe the Catholic Church now might select its first-ever African or Asian pope, a compromise candidate to stabilize the various fractions after the progressive and tumultuous years of Francis might very well be the primate of Hungary.
China To Lift EU Sanctions In Move To Repair Ties With Brussels
China and the European Parliament are in the "final stages" of discussions about removing sanctions on its lawmakers as part of a move to open the door for mended relations between Beijing and the bloc.
"Discussions with the Chinese authorities are continuing and in their final stages," a spokesperson for the European parliament told RFE/RL.
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola "will first inform group leaders once the Chinese authorities officially confirm that sanctions have been lifted," the spokesperson added. "It has always been the European Parliament's intention to have the sanctions lifted and resume relations with China."
The discussions to lift sanctions come as Beijing tries to make inroads against the backdrop of an unfolding trade war with US President Donald Trump's administration. In the face of 145 percent tariffs from the United States, China's largest export market, Beijing is now looking to improve relations with the European Union after years of strained ties with the 27-country bloc.
Beijing implemented the sanctions back in 2021 against several members of European Parliament (MEPs) after Brussels had used measures of its own on Chinese officials and entities because of human rights violations against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities, such as ethnic Kazakhs and Kyrgyz, in China's Xinjiang Province.
In response, the European parliament then froze the ratification of an EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) that was designed to deepen trade ties between the two massive markets.
A deal toward lifting the sanctions, which was first reported by German daily Suddeutsche Zeitung, has raised speculation that China and the EU are moving to normalize their ties as both navigate pressure from the Trump administration.
The EU and China are also set to hold a summit in Beijing in July.
An EU official who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal deliberations said that "it's correct that we are working on lifting the sanctions."
However, the official said that the move "has absolutely nothing to do with making any trade deal" and that the previously agreed CAI with Beijing faced obstacles back in 2021 before China sanctioned MEPs and that this "is even more true today."
The EU official added that talks with Beijing have been under way for several months and they predated tariffs deployed by Trump, which includes a 20 percent tariff for the EU, although this is currently suspended for 90 days to allow time to negotiate trade deals.
Noah Barkin, senior adviser at Rhodium Group, a consultancy, says Beijing is looking to use the removal of sanctions as a precursor to boosting trade ties with Brussels after years of tensions over Chinese support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and a record number of trade investigations launched by the European Commission looking into Chinese companies and government trade policies.
In an April 23 blog post, Barkin wrote that EU officials have told him "China hopes the removal of sanctions will lead to a revival of the CAI, sending a powerful signal about EU-China cooperation at a time when Beijing and Brussels are under intense pressure from a global trade war launched by President Donald Trump."
Barkin added that despite these expectations from China, he sees "the chances of a meaningful rapprochement between the EU and China as slim."
The EU sanctions on Chinese entities are to remain in place and it is unclear if China is planning to remove the blacklisting of all the MEPs and European entities targeted back in 2021 or only for some.
The list of MEPs includes Michael Gahler and Miriam Lexmann, lawmakers from Germany and Slovakia, Raphael Glucksmann from France, and Ilhan Kyuchyuk from Bulgaria.
Reinhard Butikofer, a German lawmaker and former leader of the European parliament's China delegation, has since left the body.
The Chinese blacklist also includes two EU-linked committees, three national parliamentarians, the Mercator Institute for China Studies, the Alliance of Democracies Foundation, and two academics researching China and Xinjiang.