Following a high-profile summit in Washington with all five Central Asian leaders that saw new US deals worth billions of dollars, Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to reaffirm ties and chart Russia's future economic role in the Central Asian country.
Toqaev arrived on November 11 for a one-on-one discussion with Putin and held formal talks on November 12 to discuss joint gas projects and the economic fallout from US sanctions on Russia's major oil companies. The Kazakh president also addressed a Kazakh-Russian economic forum.
"We agreed to strengthen our partnership in the areas of oil, oil products, coal, and electricity production, transportation, and supply," Toqaev said in televised remarks on November 12 after meeting with Putin. "We discussed in detail the prospects for gas cooperation, in particular gas supply to Kazakhstan’s regions bordering Russia, as well as transit to third countries."
The timing of the meeting in Moscow isn't coincidental, analysts told RFE/RL.
Alongside the four other Central Asian presidents in Washington last week, Toqaev held talks with US President Donald Trump and heralded the "beginning of a new era of interaction between the United States and Central Asia."
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Moscow have also opened up new economic opportunities for Central Asia, and the Kremlin is looking to adapt.
Andrew D'Anieri, associate director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, told RFE/RL that Toqaev arrived in Moscow with more leverage and stature in dealing with Putin following his prominent face time with Trump last week.
D'Anieri said that while the "choreography and rhetoric are meant to convey the closeness of Russia and Kazakhstan," Toqaev came to Moscow "with more firepower than he had last week."
"That's good for Kazakh sovereignty and therefore US interests overall," he said.
Russia's Evolving Role In Central Asia
The move marks the latest step in Kazakhstan's longstanding and carefully calibrated diplomatic balancing act between Russia, the main outside power in Central Asia; China, which has grown increasingly influential over the last decade; and Western powers like the United States looking to deepen their footprint in the region.
"Following the [US-Central Asia] summit, the visit to Moscow can be seen as a reaffirmation of Kazakhstan's strategic ties with Russia and an effort to ease any concerns within the Russian political elite," Yunis Sharifli, a nonresident fellow at the China Global South Project, told RFE/RL.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters before the visit that Putin was open to hearing more about Toqaev's bilateral and joint meetings with Trump in Washington.
"If the president of Kazakhstan considers it necessary to inform our president about the content of the contacts he had in Washington, of course that will be extremely interesting for the Russian side," Peskov said.
Energy ties played a prominent part of the discussions in Moscow, according to Toqaev, who said that he and Putin agreed to boost their partnership in the oil sector.
Peskov said on November 12 that the two presidents discussed uninterrupted operations for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), whose pipeline Kazakhstan relies on to export more than 80 percent of its oil and runs to one of Russia's Black Sea terminals. The CPC pumps oil from western Kazakhstan and includes US oil giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil as its main shareholders.
Peskov did not elaborate on the detials of the talks surrounding the CPC.
"[Russia] is attempting to restructure and redefine its role in the region," Sharifli said.
LUKoil and Rosneft, two Russian oil giants hit by US sanctions in October, have large holdings in Kazakhstan. LUKoil also holds stakes in Kazakhstan's massive Tengiz and Karachaganak fields, which are operated by Western oil giants.
Kazakhstan's More Confident In Dealing With Moscow
Ahead of his arrival in Moscow, Toqaev looked to play up Russia's warm ties with Kazakhstan and the country's standing on the global stage.
In an article published in the Russian state-owned newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, he praised Astana's "eternal friendship" with Moscow and described Kazakhstan's relationship with Russia as a "comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance."
Toqaev also mentioned recent high-level talks that he held with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Trump, and other European, Asian, and African presidents.
"Although many of them are at opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum, they all recognize the exceptional role of Russia and its leader in resolving key issues in international relations," Toqaev wrote. "In other words, it is impossible to overcome the contradictions of the modern world without Moscow's participation."
Sharifli says that that while "Moscow continues to play a critical role as a security provider," it's adapting in the region as its economy shifts amid the war in Ukraine into areas like e-commerce and developing new ways for Rosatom, its state nuclear giant, to expand its partnerships with Central Asian governments.
"Overall, while Russia’s dominance in traditional sectors has declined, it is actively seeking new channels to sustain and adapt its presence in Central Asia over the long-term," he said.
Vlad Paddack, a fellow at Nightingale Intelligence, a political foresight firm, told RFE/RL that the diplomacy in Moscow on the heels of the summit in Washington "showcases Kazakhstan's ascendance as a middle power, adept at balancing major powers while reinforcing its regional leadership."
Beyond sanctions and energy ties, Toqaev also discussed infrastructure during his talks with Putin.
While summits this year between Central Asian leaders and the United States and the European Union have focused on building up the Middle Corridor -- a roughly 6,500-kilometer trade route connecting China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus by bypassing Russia, Moscow is also looking to open up trade access to South Asia by transiting through Kazakhstan and its neighbors.
Paddack says this reflects Kazakhstan's "ambition to serve as Eurasia's primary logistics hub" and position itself at the heart of all regional trade.
