In a move that caught many observers and politicians by surprise, US President Donald Trump made a phone call to Belarusian strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko just hours before his Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin last week.
Trump wrote on social media, describing Lukashenko as "the highly respected President," that his conversation with him had focused on the release of 1,300 political prisoners.
According to Valer Kavaleuski, head of an exiled think tank called the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, Trump's emphasis on political prisoners was deeply symbolic.
"Trump put the humanitarian issue, the release of political prisoners, at the very top of his message," Kavaleuski told RFE/RL.
"This highlights that humanitarian negotiations are convenient for both Minsk and Washington. They avoid difficult issues like geopolitics or the war in Ukraine, while appearing noble and dignified because they are about people's lives."
For Lukashenko, long criticized and isolated by the West as a dictator and staunch Putin ally, Trump's call represented a diplomatic breakthrough.
'A Gift For Lukashenko'
Valer Karbalevich, a political analyst for RFE/RL's Belarus Service, said it was "a huge gift" for Lukashenko, offering a way back into the fold after he burned bridges with the West by brutally suppressing mass protests against electoral fraud in 2020.
"Lukashenko is pleased," he wrote. "He clearly feels psychological discomfort that, for five years now, Western countries have not recognized him as the president of Belarus."
But Kavaleuski sees it differently: "Even with terrible cards in his hand, being unrecognized, under Russian control, and complicit in aggression against Ukraine, Lukashenko managed to get through to Trump…. This was not a gift. It was the result of targeted, skillful Belarusian diplomacy," he said.
Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the exiled Belarusian opposition leader, hailed Trump's efforts to release political prisoners in Belarus but called for continuing pressure on Lukashenko's regime.
"This is an important humanitarian mission by the President (Trump) -- to save the lives of innocent people. We now expect Lukashenko's regime to fully end its repression and release all innocent people from prison, a vital first step toward peace, freedom, and reconciliation. And until this happens, there should be no change in policy toward the regime," Tsikhanouskaya said on social media.
Lukashenko has so far offered few details. His press secretary, Natallya Eismant, said only that "work in this direction is under way." Human rights organizations are skeptical.
Paval Sapelka from the Belarusian Vyasna human rights center noted that repression has intensified in recent months, even as occasional pardons are granted.
No Political Thaw
"The authorities are demonstrating parallel processes. Repression continues and worsens, according to some indicators. At the same time, some people are released under pardons, occasionally with immediate deportation, which is unacceptable," Sapelka told RFE/RL.
"No one has spoken of stopping arrests or of a political thaw," said Dzmitry Yahorau of the BySol Foundation, which helps victims of repression in Belarus.
Maryna Kasinerava of Dissidentby, which supports political prisoners, said there may be more than 1,300 people behind bars for opposing the regime.
"The system has done everything to hide crimes against human rights, including closing court schedules," she said.
Kasinerava warned that Lukashenko could pursue "violent transfers" rather than genuine releases. "The regime may expel people with a bag over their heads. That has nothing to do with freedom in the healthy sense of the word," she said.
'Deficit Of Hope'
Since 2020, Vyasna has documented 360 pardons in Belarus, with at least eight individuals deported directly from prison despite holding only Belarusian citizenship. In the past five years, 8,532 people have faced politically motivated criminal charges, and 7,299 have been sentenced.
For rights defenders, the prospect of 1,300 prisoners walking free would indeed be historic. But they underline that unless repression ceases, such a move will be more of a tactical maneuver than a systemic change.
Still, Kavaleuski said Trump's engagement with Lukashenko, as his efforts to bring peace in Ukraine, could be a source of encouragement.
"There is a deficit of hope in both Belarus and Ukraine right now. People in both countries consider Trump as someone who, however imperfectly, is willing to engage and try to solve the crises they are facing."
European policymakers, by contrast, have kept their distance, sticking to rigid sanctions and isolation, which, according to Kavaleuski, makes Trump's engagement more significant.
"Maybe it's not the ideal path. Maybe it requires compromises, including the reality that Lukashenko remains in power. But it offers a chance to free people from prison and to slow repression," he emphasized.
For now, Trump's interest in Lukashenko has broken through years of stalemate. It remains unclear if it signals a one-off gesture on humanitarian grounds or the start of a new channel of US diplomacy.
For the Belarusian opposition, the concern is that humanitarian gestures by Trump may open the door to legitimize Lukashenko without delivering fundamental reforms.
