In recent weeks, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have been sketching out cease-fire frameworks -- one aimed at protecting energy infrastructure like power plants and transmission lines and another focused on reducing military activity in the Black Sea.
One of Moscow's big asks has been publicly communicated: sanctions relief. In a Kremlin statement issued after the Black Sea cease-fire agreement on March 25, Moscow declared it would only observe the deal if the West partially lifted sanctions imposed following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago.
This demand includes lifting restrictions on fertilizer exports and the insurance companies that cover them, as well as reconnecting several Russian banks to the SWIFT global payment system.
Several EU leaders have already dismissed Moscow's request, most notably during a March 27 meeting in Paris, where top officials from more than 30 countries gathered to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
When I spoke with numerous European diplomats, they all pointed out that the White House statement released the same day made no mention of sanctions relief.
As one EU ambassador put it to me, referring to the recent cease-fire talks in Riyadh: "No deal was made on this in Saudi Arabia, so therefore nothing to decide for us."
EU Trade Relations With Russia
The Europeans have obviously not been present at the cease-fire talks, but they do have a rather large say on Russia sanctions.
SWIFT is a Belgian company, for starters, and the EU has "de-SWIFTed" 23 Russian banks so far, including big ones such as Sberbank and Bank Otkritie.
They are also aware that Russia's trade relations with Europe run deeper than they do with the United States.
Even before the full-scale invasion, US exports to Russia amounted to less than 0.5 percent of total American worldwide exports. For the EU, that figure was 6 percent, which is equivalent to 250 billion euros ($272 billion).
When wide-ranging EU sanctions were imposed, it hit Moscow harder. The EU's sanctions czar, David O'Sullivan, estimates that restrictive measures have deprived Russia of more than 450 billion euros ($490 billion) in revenue since early 2022.
Are the Europeans considering even a partial easing of sanctions on Russia?
The answer I consistently hear is a simple "no" or "we will decline this."
Officials point to Russia's ongoing drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, as well as the conclusions of a recent EU gathering, which signaled a potential ramping up of measures rather than a relaxation of pressure.
As the Main Results of the March 20 European Council meeting on Ukraine put it: "The European Union remains ready to step up pressure on Russia, including through further sanctions and by strengthening the enforcement of existing measures."
The European Commission has not yet invited EU member states for so-called sanctions confessionals to discuss a new sanctions package, which would be the 17th in three years, but they are looking into things like closing sanctions circumvention loopholes.
Lifting EU Sanctions Requires Unanimity
The conclusions of the European Council meeting on March 20 were approved by 26 out of 27 EU member states. The one not aligning? Hungary, which for a long time has been critical of EU sanctions.
This is significant for one reason: Lifting EU sectoral sanctions requires unanimity -- and that simply doesn't exist right now. As noted above, many member states are calling for more sanctions, not fewer. But here's the catch: Every six months, in January and July, the entire sanctions package must be extended -- and that also requires unanimous approval.
It is here where Hungary, and potentially others, might want to come in and start scaling down. In January, Budapest was threatening the entire rollover and only gave the green light after getting written assurances that Russian oil would continue to flow into Hungary.
EU diplomats I've spoken to are already fearing what the July sanctions extension might look like and what concessions they may have to make to secure a rollover as a whole.
The regular EU summit at the end of June will likely involve intense horse-trading on this, with Hungary eyeing more frozen EU funds for itself and several member states eager to launch EU accession talks with Kyiv by the summer -- a move Budapest has blocked so far.
De-SWIFTing some banks and allowing Russian fertilizers into the bloc again are obviously low-hanging fruit in this regard. But this will, of course, depend on what the situation looks like on the ground in Ukraine at that time.
One thing is clear, however: Despite immediate rejections from European diplomats, Moscow has planted a seed. As one European diplomat put it to me: "I believe it is a smart salami method the Russians have started here. Already into the cease-fire talks, they bring far-reaching demands that, in fact, belong more in a comprehensive peace deal discussion. It should be us this time who are 'transactional' and give this powerful tool away only for a fair price."
So what could this fair price be? In a sense, European officials will look to Kyiv to provide the answer. But according to those I've spoken with, the contours could include limited sanctions relief in exchange for freezing the front lines, no recognition of occupied territories as Russian, and continued Western military deliveries to Ukraine, with the snapback option of sanctions if breaches occur.
The question is whether Brussels and Kyiv can get Moscow to agree to such a deal and what the United States will think of it.
