Europe
What 'Unprecedented' US Tariffs Mean For Europe
US President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement to raise tariffs to the highest level in more than 100 years has sent stock markets tumbling and shaken the global economy.
"This is unprecedented in the last century in terms of the scale of tariffs, the number of countries hit, [and] just the sheer level of these tariffs," Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told RFE/RL.
"I think we're going to see shocks that you can't fully anticipate because we've never seen this sort of high level of tariffs in the era of globalization," she said.
That worldwide fallout could hit the European Union particularly hard, economists who spoke to RFE/RL said.
The direct impact of Trump's 20 percent levy on EU products has sparked fears of coming inflation and about the economic outlook for the 27-country bloc's embattled manufacturers, who are already reeling from US levies on cars and steel. Experts say other major sectors, such as Europe's pharmaceutical industry, which exports heavily to the US market, could also be hard-hit.
"These pharmaceutical firms will try to sell into the US as much as they can," Reid I'Anson, a senior economist at the trade intelligence firm Kpler, told RFE/RL. "They may drop their prices a little bit to try and stay competitive, but it is very likely that outright demand in the US for European goods will decline. That will flow through to a weaker economic environment in Europe."
How Hard Will Trump's Tariffs Hit Europe?
Tariffs are essentially a tax paid by an importer that are usually passed on to distributors, wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately, to consumers.
About 60 countries that run the largest trade surpluses with the United States -- including key allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea -- now face extra tariffs higher than the flat 10 percent levy announcement, with dozens of others facing tariffs that could extend to 50 percent or more in total.
During his announcement in the White House's Rose Garden, Trump said the basic 10 percent tariff on almost all countries takes effect on April 5, while the higher so-called reciprocal tariff rates would apply starting April 9.
While economists say the tariff regime announced by Trump is set to make levied goods in the country more expensive, it will also affect industries in Europe and elsewhere that rely on exporting to the US market.
"European exporters selling things to the United States are going to have to pay a higher cost, which is passed on to American consumers, but it's going to affect their ability to sell things [and] they're going to lose market share," Matthew Goodman, director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told RFE/RL.
Brussels and individual European governments are still deciding how to react and further negotiations could take place, but the prospect of retaliatory tariffs placed on US products is real, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying the bloc is "now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail."
Goodman says any retaliation from Europe will raise costs for European consumers and would also raise inflation and slow growth in the United States.
"That has big implications for everybody in the world because [the United States is] the largest economy in the world, and if our economy slows, then everybody gets hit," he said.
CNAS's Kilcrease, who is a former deputy assistant US trade representative, says Trump's tariffs could also have knock-on effects for Europe, including higher prices and even job losses for key industries.
"I'd actually be quite worried about jobs impacts and about investment impacts because you just don't have that customer anymore, or it's just going to be much harder with a 20 percent tariff to sell into that market," she said.
How Will The Global Impact Of Trump's Tariffs Affect Europe?
The new US tariffs could also have global fallout, affecting the price of key products that rely on global supply chains and reorienting the flow of international trade in unexpected ways.
The price of an iPhone, for instance, could increase by 30 to 40 percent in the United States, according to projections by the financial firm Rosenblatt Securities.
The cheapest iPhone 16 model is currently listed at $799 but could cost as much as $1,142 if Apple decided to pass the cost on to consumers. A more expensive iPhone 16 Pro Max that currently retails at $1,599 could rise to nearly $2,300. Similar percentage increases are projected for other markets.
"This is going to have ripple effects, and it's going to feed through the many different things that go into an iPhone, from the semiconductors made in Taiwan to the glass that is made in Japan, to the assembly of the iPhone in China," said Goodman. "All these things are going to be hit with tariffs, and so the price is ultimately going to be passed on to consumers, both in Europe and in the United States."
Washington's escalating trade war with Beijing will also come with worldwide repercussions that will hit Europe directly and indirectly.
China announced on April 4 that it will impose additional tariffs of 34 percent on imports from the United States in retaliation for duties of the same amount unveiled by Trump. The "reciprocal" tariff placed on China is on top of a 20 percent levy already imposed by the Trump administration.
Trump also targeted countries through which Chinese companies have been diverting products to the US market, among them Vietnam, which faces a new tariff of 46 percent.
As Kpler's I'Anson explains, the United States accounts for around 25 percent of Chinese exports, but with that market now saddled with tariffs, Chinese exporters will have to cut prices and reorient those products to other markets.
This could in turn lead to a flood of discounted Chinese imports around the world, something Brussels has said it is already tracking and preparing countermeasures to protect its manufacturers from.
"It's very possible that there could be this flood of goods coming into Europe in a way that causes real economic problems for Europeans," Kilcrease said. "It may cause another drag on the competitiveness of European firms who are making those same sorts of goods."
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EU Sanctions Score A Legal Win Over Russian Oligarchs
The European Union scored an important legal victory over Russia with its sanctions policy on June 5 as the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Luxembourg issued an opinion stating that visa bans and asset freezes of five prominent Russian businessmen deemed closed to the Kremlin are not only lawful but also Brussels doesn't need to prove their ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime.
Following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU blacklisted the five Russians -- Dmitry Pumpyanskiy, Dmitry Mazepin, Tigran Khudaverdyan, Viktor Rashnikov, and German Khan -- and accused them of undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the war-torn country.
The quintet, together with up to 80 other sanctioned Russians and Belarusians, petitioned the ECJ to be removed from the black list on various grounds. The cases were dismissed in 2023, and the judges at the time noted they that all five held high positions in the Russian economy, and that those sectors provided a substantial source of revenue for the Kremlin.
They all appealed the court's initial ruling, and before the final verdict, one of the court's Advocate Generals was requested to deliver an opinion on their appeals. This opinion isn't binding on the court, but in most cases the court rules in line with the opinion.
In this case, given the clear view the Advocate General delivered, a ruling could come as early as July or after the EU court's summer recess in August.
The impending ruling is also likely the end of the road for the quintet's legal quest in the EU's court system to get their sanctions removed. Given that other Russian businessmen have made similar appeals to be delisted, it's fair to assume not many will be successful going forward.
Setting A Precedent For Sanctions
The opinion sets a sort of precedent and spells out one thing: The legal framework for the bloc's Russia sanctions policy appears solid.
The opinion states clearly that there is "a rational relationship" between sanctioning leading businesspeople who provide a substantial revenue to the Russian government and the objective of the restrictive measures. The objective is stated clearly: to "exert pressure on the Government of the Russian Federation to put an end to aggression of Russia in Ukraine by reducing the financial resources available." By sanctioning businessmen in the country, the economy is harmed, and thus it increases the cost of waging war against Kyiv.
The key thing in the opinion, however, is that when imposing these sanctions the EU doesn't have to prove "any specific conduct of the listed person, in particular in terms of influence over the Russian Government." This is what the sanctioned people in essence wanted to appeal: that while they are economically active in Russia, they have no direct sway on government policy when it comes to the war in Ukraine.
It now appears sufficient to produce general links with Putin to clear the legal hurdle. When the EU decided to sanction leading Russian businessmen, they referred to a meeting organized by Putin a few days after the Ukrainian full-scale invasion with almost 40 of the most economically influential Russians to discuss the impact of the course of action in the wake of Western sanctions.
There are other reasons, too, that Brussels lists these five. In Pumpyanskiy's case, the EU noted he participated in the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in March 2023, in which Putin urged participants to put "patriotism before profit."
German Khan is one of the owners of Alfa Bank, and the bloc notes that Putin's eldest daughter, Maria, ran a charity project called Alfa-Endo that was funded by the bank.
Both Mazepin and Rashnikov are listed because their businesses provide "substantial resources of revenue to the state budget," whereas Tigran Khudaverdyan, executive director of one of Russia's leading technology companies Yandex, is blacklisted because the company "has been warning Russian users looking for news about Ukraine on its search engine of unreliable information on the Internet."
The ECJ ruling comes as a sigh of relief for the EU, which has faced some hurdles. It was battered in the same court for sanctions imposed on former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his entourage in 2014 for the "misappropriation of Ukrainian state funds." The sanctions were based on rather flimsy evidence and have since largely collapsed.
Brussels was also slapped on the wrist for the current Russia sanctions, notably restrictive measures on relatives of listed businessmen. Both Nikita Mazepin, the racing driving son of Dmitry Mazepin, and Violeta Prigozhina, the mother of the late Russian oligarch and Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, have won in the Luxembourg court and have since been delisted.
- By RFE/RL
European Commission Gives Bulgaria Green Light To Adopt Euro From January 1
The European Commission has given Bulgaria the go-ahead to join the eurozone single currency region as of January 1, 2026, the country's second major step in just one year on its path to full integration into the European Union.
The commission, which met on June 4 to convey its decision on the issue, said Bulgaria fulfils the four nominal convergence criteria that are used to evaluate whether a country is ready for euro adoption.
"The euro is a tangible symbol of European strength and unity," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The European Central Bank (ECB) also gave a positive assessment of Bulgaria's application, saying it met the criteria of currency stability, inflation, public finances, and interest rates.
“This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,” Philip Lane, a member of the ECB Executive Board, said.
“I wish to congratulate Bulgaria on its tremendous dedication to making the adjustments needed.”
The Council of the EU will take the final decisions on euro adoption for Bulgaria, basing its decision on the opinions of the EC and the ECB, as well as from talks with the Eurogroup and European Council.
While adoption of the euro was a condition for joining the European Union, legislative failures, including reforms to combat money laundering, concerns over inflation, and political gridlock -- Bulgaria has had seven elections in the past four years -- have made the path difficult for the country.
Mass protests took place in Sofia and other cities across the country last week, and politicians said after the decision that the task now is to make sure adoption provides benefits, not disruption.
Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov said the government would work to make "the process of introducing the euro smooth, predictable, predictable" and to dispel "the fears that are instilled in people and that are used for political abuse."
Added Boyko Borisov, leader of the GERB party and a former prime minister: "A huge amount of work lies ahead, especially next year, because Bulgarians should feel the benefits of the eurozone."
The decision in favor of adoption is Bulgaria's second big step in just one year on its path to full integration into the European Union.
In January, Sofia became a full member of Schengen agreement -- and Bulgaria’s borders with neighboring Greece and Romania are now fully open.
NATO Set To Agree On New Defense Budget Targets
NATO defense ministers meet on June 5 in a last ministerial meeting before the big annual NATO summit on June 24-25, when the military alliance's 32 heads of state and government, including US President Donald Trump, gather at The Hague.
The meeting is about one thing only: cash. This is when officials are set to agree on the next NATO spending target.
As most alliance members now spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, the next goal is 3.5 percent in so-called hard spending, meaning military capabilities such as tanks, rockets, and ammunition.
According to NATO officials who spoke to RFE/RL, only Spain seems to have problems with the 3.5 percent target, but it's expected to relent at the ministerial.
Spain is one of only a few countries still not clearing the 2 percent baseline, having only reached 1.28 percent last year; the budgeted military spending increase it was hoping for appears to be stuck for now.
The issue in Madrid is related to the center-left government's long-held promise to coalition partners to get Catalan, Basque, and Galician to become official EU languages -- something that requires unanimity among EU member states, which Spain failed to secure when it came up on the agenda in Brussels on May 27.
While the language issue hasn't been entirely dismissed yet, no date has been set for a potential decision on the question.
NATO 'Soft' Target Spending
The 3.5 percent target is not the only thing awaiting a decision. There should also be a 1.5 percent of GDP spending goal on what could be called soft targets, bringing total defense spending up to 5 percent of GDP.
One of the big issues now, with negotiations likely to continue right up till the summit, is what kind of expenditure can be included in that 1.5 percent. It would certainly include boosting civil preparedness and cyberdefense, but allies are lobbying to put pretty much anything in there -- rumor has it Germany wants to include financing for its Deutsche Welle media broadcasting.
There are two more questions that may not be resolved anytime soon: the timeline for reaching the target and how exactly to do so. The year 2032 has been mentioned, but that may well be pushed back to 2035, with officials saying it's unrealistic for every country to boost defense spending before then as there are low growth and considerable budget deficits to contend with.
There is a real discussion on the method of how to reach the target with NATO officials pushing for a 0.2 percent spending increase every year. Most countries, however, don't want such a detailed plan and prefer spending in spurts when money is available. This would mean their defense spending could jump considerably during a year when they place a major order of tanks or airplanes, for example -- and ideally this would come nearer the 3.5 percent target.
Where Does The US Stand On NATO Defense Spending?
It's been Trump, after all, who's hammered home to European NATO allies that they need to spend more. European diplomats I have spoken to say Washington simply wants the 3.5 percent in writing at The Hague meeting and doesn't really care what the other 1.5 percent involves.
But there's also a grand transatlantic bargain to be had. The United States would like a potential European defense splurge to benefit American weapon manufacturers. But with supply chains stretched in North America, it could make sense to set up more American production in Europe. In other words: buy American in Europe. Think of the Patriot systems that will be made in Germany or F-35 aircraft production in Italy.
So what about Ukraine? There will at least be a session of the NATO-Ukraine Council at the defense ministerial on June 5. But that is something that seems unlikely at the summit in The Hague with the presence of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy still unconfirmed.
The day before the ministerial meeting, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein group), an alliance of 57 countries, will meet to coordinate military aid for Kyiv. For the first time since the group was created three years ago, the US defense secretary will not be in attendance.
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth will not arrive in Brussels until after the Ukraine Defense Contact Group's meeting is over. With the United States no longer in the lead, Germany and the United Kingdom are now co-chairing the group with more announcements of military aid expected.
NATO allies provided 50 billion euros to Ukraine in 2024, and the goal is to provide another 40 billion this year. More than 20 billion euros have been pledged so far, but there is still a fear that target won't be reached as countries will be prioritizing their own defenses and the United States signaled it might not send more arms to Kyiv as it seeks a negotiated end to the fighting.
EU Members Playing The Waiting Game On New Russia Sanctions
When the European Commission started briefing EU states last month on the next sanctions package expected to be imposed on Russia, the 27 member nations expected concrete written proposals to follow. They're still waiting.
Normally these sorts of documents -- in this case the potential 18th round of restrictive measures since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched more three years ago -- are provided only a few days after the briefings, or “confessionals” as they are known in Brussels.
The documents outline details of what the commission is considering about targeting. In turn, EU members provide red lines as to what they are willing to agree on since all sanctions require unanimity.
So what's the holdup? Two things.
The first is that some EU member states -- including larger ones such as Germany and France -- wanted to wait and see how June 2 peace talks in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine proceeded.
Several EU officials told RFE/RL on the condition of anonymity that they don't believe Moscow is serious about making progress in negotiations with Kyiv and wanted to wait and see the results.
Aside from agreeing to swap thousands of their dead and seriously wounded troops, the two sides made no progress toward ending Europe's longest and deadliest conflict since World War II.
Then there is the United States.
So far, President Donald Trump has refrained from targeting Moscow with sanctions even though he has threatened to do so on numerous occasions.
The reason given is the same as the Europeans: he wants to give the Russia-Ukraine negotiations every chance possible to succeed. And Brussels is desperate to have Washington onboard on for any new sanctions.
European diplomats say they are relieved that the US hasn’t, at least so far, accepted “a rushed, bad peace deal,” or that the Americans simply haven't walked away from the issue despite threatening to.
And while they admit that sanctions are no longer synchronized like they were during the Biden administration, they are still keen to coordinate any coming round of measures to maximize their impact and message.
Sanctions from Washington may also help coax some EU countries such as Hungary -- run by Trump ally Viktor Orban -- to go along with another wave of measures despite voicing concerns over their effectiveness.
So, what would the 18th package contain?
EU diplomats familiar with the file note that one particular item would require American consent: lowering the G7 Russian oil price cap to $45.
The cap has held at $60 for years even though oil prices have traded below that level.
The idea is that the leaders formally will agree to decrease the price cap to at least $50 when they meet at the G7 Summit in Canada on June 15-17.
The group’s finance ministers couldn’t reach an agreement in May as Washington resisted the move. Some EU officials told RFE/RL that they believe there could be movement on the issue soon.
Much like the EU’s 17th package that was adopted on May 20, the new measures include blacklisting more individuals and targeting the Russian shadow fleet.
On the latter, the EU has targeted more than 300 vessels that the bloc believes Moscow uses to circumvent sanctions, notably the export of oil.
With an additional 600 boats believed to be part of the fleet, the goal of the upcoming measures is to add as many as those as possible even if European diplomats admit it is a challenge to find evidence that stands up in court proving that the Kremlin is financing the ships.
More visa bans and asset freezes are also expected, with the EU looking to add another 100 individuals and companies to a sprawling list of those sanctioned that exceeds 2,400 entries.
The European Commission also could propose reintroducing those previously removed from the blacklist.
Another move could be to hit Russian diplomats who have been posted in various European countries and are suspected of spying on behalf of Moscow.
The proposal also includes sanctions on the Nordstream pipelines connecting Russia with Germany.
No gas is flowing through them at the moment, but Berlin has indicated that it wants formal measures to apply as some talks have resurfaced in the country about using them again in case relations with Moscow improve.
There is also an idea to cut more than 20 Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, even though most of the country’s big banks already have been targeted.
The Russian foreign direct investment fund could also be hit, and the bloc is planning to introduce trade restrictions that would prevent European companies from exporting various industrial components that Russia may use to fuel its war machine.
In the meantime, EU members will have to wait for the commission to write down its proposals.
- By Ivan Bedrov
Arson, Lies, And Russian Flags Fail To Halt Bulgaria On Euro Adoption
Bulgarian authorities expect to get the green light this week from the European Commission and the European Central Bank to introduce the euro from January 1, 2026.
Such an indication comes in the face of anti-euro protests with angry young Bulgarians carrying national and Russian flags, and even an arson attack on the European Commission building in Sofia.
While adoption of the euro was a condition for joining the European Union, legislative failures, including reforms to combat money laundering, concerns over inflation, and political gridlock -- Bulgaria has had seven elections in the past four years -- have made the path difficult.
Still, on June 4, Bulgaria expects a positive assessment from the European Commission and the European Central Bank on whether it is ready to introduce the euro beginning next year.
A decision in favor of adoption will be Bulgaria's second big step in just one year on its path to full integration into the European Union. In January, Sofia became a full member of Schengen agreement -- and Bulgaria's borders with neighboring Greece and Romania are now fully open.
How Is Euro Adoption Possible?
Bulgaria entered the EU in 2007 and, with the signing of the accession treaty, committed to introducing the euro. This goal has been supported by all governments in Sofia since then.
The financial crisis in Greece in 2010 postponed the topic once.
Then a major Bulgarian bank went bankrupt in 2014 and local institutions have not yet fully investigated the causes. It was not until 2020 that Bulgaria became a member of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, ERM II, the so-called waiting room for the euro.
Adding more bumps on the euro path, Bulgaria has been mired in a period of political turbulence, holding seven parliamentary elections since 2021, and a number of short-lived governments followed.
However, if there was a silver lining to the instability, the turbulence has made anti-corruption reforms a part of the government agenda with reform-minded pro-Western politicians now in parliament.
Why Are Bulgarians Unhappy With The Euro?
Support for the euro has been waning and now more Bulgarians are against its introduction than those who support the single European currency.
The disdain for the euro could be seen in the streets of Sofia and other cities over the weekend, with thousands protesting joining the single currency zone fearing it will harm the economy and push consumer prices higher.
A recent Eurobarometer survey showed 50 percent of Bulgarians are against adopting the euro, while 43 percent are in favor. The explanation can be found in the same survey -- the biggest problem for Bulgarians in recent years has been a rise in the cost of living.
Those fears have fueled even more by the aggressive campaign of anti-European and pro-Russian parties that many accuse of waging a misinformation campaign to scare ordinary Bulgarians.
Leading the campaign has been the Revival party, which recently signed a cooperation agreement with Russia's ruling party, United Russia.
They say that people's savings will be taken away if they don't use them within a certain period of time. Or that the digital euro will be introduced so that the authorities can monitor everyone.
Neither is true, but a general lack of trust in Bulgaria -- in politicians, institutions, and the media -- has helped keep tensions and concerns high.
What Awaits Bulgarians Now?
The introduction of the euro seems irreversible.
Even the surprising action of President Rumen Radev, who requested a referendum at the last minute on the date of the introduction of the single currency, failed to stop its progress.
The Constitutional Court has said it's legally impossible to hold such a vote, while 171 out of 240 deputies in parliament support the government taking the final steps to the introduction of the euro.
How Will Euro Adoption Work?
If all goes to plan, Bulgaria will become the 21st country in the eurozone from January 1.
All prices and salaries will then be denominated in euros.
The exchange rate has long been determined -- 1 euro will equal 1.95583 leva. It has been fixed like this since the very beginning of the euro in 2002, because the Bulgarian lev was previously tied to the German mark.
Prices in some supermarkets are already in both currencies.
People will have six months to exchange their cash savings for euros without commission. Labels on prices will remain in both currencies for at least that period, if not longer.
Experts say the introduction of the euro will boost Bulgaria's economy.
For most Bulgarians, the change will not be that big.
Property prices have long been talked about in euros. Some services are also calculated in euros. Many people's savings are already in euros.
EU Mulls Black Sea Security Hub To Counter Russian Threats
The European Union hopes to set up a "Black sea maritime security hub" to counter Russia's action in the region and to protect critical maritime infrastructure.
The plan is part of a wider EU strategy that was presented on May 28 by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to forge closer cooperation with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine.
The document, titled The European Union's Strategic Approach To The Black Sea Region, was seen by RFE/RL.
It notes that Brussels should help by "building up maritime capacities and enablers regarding sea monitoring, including for observation of a possible maritime ceasefire, mine cleaning efforts, protection of critical infrastructure, patrolling of commercial sea lines, countering hybrid threats, with the aim of deterring future aggressions in the region and, when conditions allow, to consolidate peace."
There is no indication as to where the hub would be situated or which countries would be included.
But the text notes it should deal with issues such as "maritime situational awareness, real-time monitoring from space to seabed, and early warning of potential threats and malicious activities."
The hub would focus on things such as submarine cables, offshore installations, and gas and wind energy operations off the Romanian and Bulgarian shores.
The paper comes amid planning by European nations of some sort of reassurance force in Ukraine in case of a permanent cease-fire in the Russian war.
While the United Kingdom and France are leading the way in terms of placing boots on the ground, Turkey has already, according to RFE/RL sources, suggested it would lead the maritime component of such a force, notably by assuring safe passage in the Black Sea and potentially clear up mines.
While the document doesn't refer directly to any reassurance force for Ukraine, it does highlight increased cooperation with Ankara to secure peace in and around the Black Sea.
"Turkey can play a constructive role on countering Russia's shadow fleet, and contributing to efforts to enhance maritime safety, energy security and connectivity in line with international law and relevant conventions," it says.
A specific Black Sea strategy was promised by European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen after being re-elected as European Commission President in late 2024.
The idea is that Kallas now should organize "a dedicated EU ministerial meeting with partner countries in the Black Sea region to develop and advance different aspects of cooperation under the new EU approach to the Black Sea region based on a jointly agreed way forward."
The EU already has such dedicated meetings with foreign ministers from EU hopefuls in the Western Balkans and did previously with the Eastern Partnership countries -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
While the text doesn't contain any new financial pledges or concrete legislative proposals, it offers some indication of the European Commission thinking on some countries in the region.
In thinly veiled criticism of the increasingly anti-EU government in Tbilisi, the text notes that "the EU's role and responsibility in the Black Sea region is increasing, particularly with the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova; and with Georgia, should the country revert to the EU path."
Human rights are not mentioned, with the document focusing on three areas: "enhancing security, fostering growth and prosperity and promoting environmental protection, climate change resilience and preparedness."
While Brussels previously would have mentioned some criticism of Azerbaijan, notably the lack of free and fair elections and a shrinking space of civil society in the country, the current strategy only mentions Baku in terms of energy cooperation and fighting climate change.
"Cooperation with regional partners, particularly Azerbaijan, is one among the essential actions to support the EU's efforts to phase out remaining Russian energy imports and accelerate energy diversification, as outlined in the RePowerEU Roadmap, thereby strengthening EU's energy security.
As host of COP29 Azerbaijan furthermore committed itself to decarbonization and the multilateral process, which is a core priority for the EU."
Merz Comments Put Spotlight On Taurus Cruise Missiles For Ukraine
Remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on allowing Ukraine to fire Western-supplied missiles at military targets deep inside Russia have rekindled debate about supplying Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv amid a visit to Berlin by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on May 28.
Ukraine has long requested the German-Swedish weapons system, which can deliver a heavy payload with high precision on targets some 500 kilometers away.
Germany is the second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the United States. Yet Merz's predecessor, Olaf Scholz, declined to supply Taurus missiles amid Kremlin threats that it would make Berlin a party to the war.
"German dithering under Scholz handed Russia an operational advantage and allowed them to adapt their defenses and tactics," John Foreman, a former British military attache in Moscow and Kyiv, told RFE/RL.
"Adding belatedly another string to Ukraine's bow would be good. But I'm unconvinced it will change the trajectory of the war," he added.
What Long-Range Missiles Does Ukraine Have?
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western countries have provided Kyiv with a variety of weapons capable of hitting targets far behind Russian lines.
The United Kingdom and France have supplied Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles, which have a range of about 250 kilometers, while Washington has sent its Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) with a range of some 300 kilometers.
These weapons were originally supplied with the proviso that they would only be used on targets in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.
But in November last year then-President Joe Biden's administration said Ukraine could use ATACMS in Russia's Kursk region, where its forces were fighting to hold a small chunk of Russian territory.
Shortly afterward there were reported uses of Storm Shadow/Scalp within Russia. Merz now appears to have commented on these developments.
"The countries that imposed range restrictions have long since abandoned these conditions," he said on May 27.
"Ukraine has the right to use the weapons it receives -- including to use them beyond its own national borders against military targets on Russian territory."
The remarks clarified a statement during a TV interview the previous day, which implied that this was a new policy as well as sparking renewed speculation about Germany supplying Ukraine with Taurus missiles.
"The main issue is that our partners provide us with the means to strike, both Scalps and the German Taurus. If they do it will help us quite a bit," Ukrainian lawmaker Roman Kostenko told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service.
Roman Svitan, a Ukrainian military analyst, took a similar line in comments to RFE/RL's Russian Service.
"First, one should provide those missiles and then grant permission to use them wherever. Ukraine has no such Western missiles left. We have nothing to fire," he said.
Not A Game-Changer
Foreman, the UK military attache, warned that the Taurus system would not be a game-changer.
"Russia has adapted considerably over the last three years, in particular by dispersing its forces, changing its tactics, and improving its kinetic and nonkinetic defenses," he said.
"These steps have reduced (but not removed) vulnerability to Ukrainian missile strikes in the Russian rear areas…. A few missile strikes by Taurus won't affect this dramatically."
Still, getting an announcement could boost Ukrainian morale and would give Zelenskyy a political victory. Merz's comments drew a negative response from Moscow.
"These potential decisions, if they have been made, are completely at odds with our aspirations for a political settlement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
These are "quite dangerous decisions," he added.
There was no immediate official response from London, Paris, or Washington, a silence that aligns with a strategy Berlin has dubbed "strategic ambiguity." Broadly speaking, it means not telegraphing military strategy to Moscow. And it's something of a departure for Merz.
Merz's Changing Views On Taurus
Merz views on Taurus have changed over time. While in opposition, he fiercely criticized what he saw as the German government's timidity over support for Ukraine -– and demanded openness on military supplies.
In November 2023, he submitted a motion in parliament calling for "finally, without delay, satisfying the Ukrainian request for Taurus cruise missiles." The motion was defeated.
By October last year, Merz's position had morphed. In a parliamentary debate, he said the government should give Moscow an ultimatum: either stop attacking civilian targets in Ukraine, or Germany will supply the Taurus.
In his comments on May 26, he did not mention Taurus but may have hinted at it.
"We will do everything we can to support Ukraine. This means no more range restrictions for weapons we supply," he wrote on social media.
Yet he may not be speaking about Taurus missiles. Germany has also provided Ukraine with Mars II rocket launchers, which have a range of some 85 kilometers.
There are obvious military reasons for "strategic ambiguity" but also political ones. Merz's coalition partners, the Social Democrats, have opposed supplying Taurus, and opinion polls show it is deeply unpopular with the German public.
It has been suggested that, for this reason, Merz is no longer so keen on the idea and may now be inclined to instead help Ukraine develop its own long-range capabilities.
In any case, it could be that the first the world hears about Taurus missiles being supplied to Ukraine will be if and when they are fired.
- By Mike Eckel
In Italian Court, Another Verdict Looms In Saga Of Artyom Uss's Great Escape
After Artyom Uss, a Russian businessman and son of a powerful Kremlin-connected governor, escaped from Italian house arrest two years ago, investigators spent months honing in on a motley Balkan crime gang that smuggled him home to Russia.
The trail of evidence led from the suburbs of Milan to Zagreb, to Belgrade, and to the sprawling Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk, where Uss hailed from. US prosecutors, who had indicted Uss on charges of smuggling Western military technology and issued an arrest warrant, were involved.
Uss has since dropped out of public view. So has the group that allegedly abetted his escape. A Bosnian man was released from Croatian custody after cooperating with Italian prosecutors. A Serbian man who mysteriously joined a Russian expedition to the North Pole also gave testimony.
Now comes the latest development in the saga: A Geneva-based Russian lawyer named Dmitry Chirakadze is set to be sentenced by a Milan court for his alleged role in organizing Uss's March 2023 escape. A verdict could come as early as May 22.
In closing arguments earlier this month, Milan prosecutors requested a 5 ½ year prison sentence for Chirakadze, who has been in custody since being arrested in Rome in June 2024 as he arrived from Sardinia. He is reportedly an owner of a luxury hotel on the Italian island.
The lead prosecutor, Giovanni Tarzia, did not respond immediately to an e-mail from RFE/RL seeking comment.
The son of Aleksandr Uss, then the governor of the massive Russian region of Krasnoyarsk, Artyom Uss, was arrested at the Milan airport in October 2022, a month after a US grand jury secretly indicted him on smuggling charges.
Along with a Russian business partner and four others, Uss was accused of using a German company to smuggle military and dual-use technologies to Russia in violation of Western sanctions -- including the kinds of electronics that later showed up on the battlefield in Ukraine.
From Milan To Moscow: Inside The Twisting Plot Behind Artyom Uss's Escape
Previous RFE/RL investigations on this topic:
Uss was held, pending an Italian court ruling on the US extradition request. He was held not in police custody but under house arrest, living in a townhouse in a housing development south of Milan.
In March 2023, days before he was set to be extradited, Uss escaped from house arrest, breaking an electronic monitoring bracelet. He was driven across Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, and into Belgrade, where he later flew to Moscow and later to Krasnoyarsk.
The escape embarrassed Italian authorities. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the circumstances behind his flight deserved further scrutiny. It also infuriated US prosecutors, who had warned Italian counterparts that Uss was a flight risk.
In the months that followed, Italian investigators and US authorities identified a group of seven men and women from Bosnia, Serbia, and Slovenia who were alleged to have organized Uss's escape.
A Bosnian man was indicted by US prosecutors in December 2023 in connection with the escape and arrested in Zagreb. He later cooperated with the Italian investigation and was released. A Slovenian man was arrested by Slovenian police on an Italian warrant in January 2024 and was later released.
Also implicated was a Serbian businessman named Srdjan Lolic who joined a Russian expedition to the North Pole in April 2023, less than a month after he allegedly helped Uss escape. He traveled via Krasnoyarsk.
While at the North Pole, Lolic was seen dancing along with the region's vice governor, and he also bragged about dining with Aleksandr Uss, the governor, and attending an Orthodox mass with him.
Lolic could not be reached for comment.
After resigning as Krasnoyarsk's governor, Aleksandr Uss became a lawmaker in Russia's upper house of parliament.
In June 2024, meanwhile, Chirakadze was flying from Sardinia to Switzerland, when he was detained at Rome's airport by Italian police.
In addition to owning a luxury resort in Sardinia, Chirakadze owned a hunting estate in Krasnoyarsk. In Russia, he is also known for his part in establishing Pravo.ru, an online legal publication and resource popular with the Russian legal community.
In closing arguments earlier this month, Tarzia, the lead Milan prosecutor, told the court that Lolic had testified via video conference from Serbia and implicated a now-deceased Russian lawmaker from Krasnoyarsk.
According to the Milan newspaper Correiere Della Serra, Lolic testified that the dead lawmaker contacted Lolic and asked him to meet with Chirakadze, who prosecutors said was the lead mastermind behind Uss's escape.
Chirakadze's defense lawyer, Tatiana Della Marra, did not respond to e-mail inquiries.
Uss could not be located for comment. However, his Russian lawyer told the business newspaper Vedomosti that Chirakadze was not involved in the escape, and he accused Italian authorities of "hostage taking."
"Chirakadze was organizing Artyom's legal defense, and obviously could not have had anything to do with his escape from house arrest," Aleksei Tikhomirov was quoted as saying.
- By Ray Furlong and
- Rikard Jozwiak
Does The EU Still Have The Sanctions Cards Needed To Hurt Russia?
With the ink still drying on the European Union's freshly printed 17th sanctions package on Russia, work is already under way on a next step that European leaders say will be "massive."
But some analysts warn that, in many ways, the EU has already played its best cards and doesn't have many left, especially at a time when Washington seems reluctant to join in as it pushes peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.
"The cards that we still have to play largely include measures for which we would need the United States," Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the Kyiv-based KSE Institute, a think tank, told RFE/RL.
"Specifically, this would be about removing Russian oil and gas from global markets in volume," he said, adding that counties such as India, China, and Turkey would not stop buying Russian fossil fuels without the weight of secondary US sanctions.
European leaders threatened Russia with "massive" sanctions on May 10 if Moscow did not agree to a 30-day cease-fire proposed by Washington. They said they were making their demand after coordinating it with US President Donald Trump.
It was meant to appear as a game-changing moment, but the apparent transatlantic concord quickly went awry.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not commit to a cease-fire during a phone call with Trump on May 19, yet Trump praised the call and did not appear ready to announce new US sanctions saying imposing them now could imperil talks and make the situation "much worse."
To be clear: The "massive" sanction threat had nothing to do with the 17th package of EU measures announced on May 20, as this had already been some time in the works.
An Empty Threat?
European leaders may need to deliver something big by themselves, without US involvement -- or appear to have made an empty threat.
Can they deliver?
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys thinks so. He told RFE/RL that the EU could redouble its efforts on Russia's energy exports.
"We should stop the major income to Russia's budget and major income to their war machine. This is the exports of gas, oil, LNG. We have to stop those," he said.
But in practice, countries such as Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium are actually importing more LNG, or liquified natural gas, now than they were a year ago. Budrys argued there were plenty of alternatives on the global market.
"There are voices that say, 'Oh, they're too expensive and it will cost us too much, we can't afford this.' Look, we (Lithuania) already did this," he added.
But the arguments about price illustrate that the self-harming impacts of sanctions have held the EU back in the past, and may do in the future, too.
Sanctions will be "massive, only when we are willing to go further than we would like to go," Tom Keatinge of the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told RFE/RL.
"By that I mean only when we're willing to inflict sanctions that have a degree of blowback on our own economies," he added.
Hitting Energy Exports
Hilgenstock makes a distinction between countries using Russian LNG for economic reasons and countries such as Hungary and Slovakia that would oppose an import ban due to their close political relationship with Moscow.
Even if economic objections can be overcome, political considerations can also delay or complicate a significant tightening of sanctions in this area.
European leaders have suggested that the next sanctions package will include the energy sector, but that's a broad term. Some have also suggested financial measures.
"It's relatively unclear what they are actually talking about," said Hilgenstock, who is also an Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
"Are they overselling what they can deliver? I think they are."
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen did provide some indication of what might come next in remarks on May 16.
"It will include working on listing more vessels of the Russian shadow fleet," she said, referring to ships without clear ownership used to evade restrictions on Russian oil and oil products.
The 17th sanctions package, along with British measures announced the same day, already added dozens of ships, following the pattern of previous packages. As such, adding new ships would appear like further cumulative action rather than something bold and new.
'All Talk And No Trousers'
Von der Leyen also mentioned reducing the oil price cap for Russian oil, another punitive measure imposed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But this too would require US agreement for global enforcement.
Three years of sanctions have had a big impact on the Russian economy but have not stopped Moscow's aggression.
Still, announcing the latest measures, European politicians were resolute.
UK Foreign Minister David Lammy called Putin a "warmonger" while urging him to agree to the 30-day cease-fire, adding that "delaying peace efforts will only redouble our resolve to help Ukraine to defend itself and use our sanctions to restrict Putin's war machine."
EU Foreign Affairs chief Kaja Kallas wrote on social media that "more sanctions on Russia are in the works."
Keatinge warns that not following through with genuinely impactful sanctions risks undermining credibility.
"It gives plenty of ammunition to [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov and others to basically say…the Europeans are all talk and no trousers."
Hilgenstock shares the concern.
"We're seeing Vladimir Putin's response, or rather non-response to this ultimatum," he says, referring to the May 10 statement on "massive" sanctions.
"That makes clear what the Russian side thinks."
- By Ray Furlong
Former NATO Chief Rasmussen Says Plan For European Force In Ukraine 'Moving Too Slowly'
Former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen has told RFE/RL that preparations for a European force to deploy to Ukraine after a cease-fire or peace deal are "moving too slowly" and that the whole European security model was "at a turning point."
"I don't want to see a coalition of the willing becoming a coalition of the waiting," Rasmussen said, referring to a plan announced with fanfare by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London on March 2.
Since then, there has been a series of meetings at various levels. Yet key questions about the mission's mandate, its rules of engagement, and who would be sending troops, have yet to be publicly answered.
"Typically, in Europe, we spend a lot of time discussing and talking, and too little efforts are spent on taking action," Rasmussen said.
"However, I do hope that Putin's attack on Ukraine and the election of Trump would be wake-up calls that tell us in Europe that we have to move fast."
Rasmussen was speaking in a wide-ranging interview on military issues, economic security, and US President Donald Trump's repeated talk of seizing Greenland from Denmark.
He was Danish Prime Minister before serving as NATO Secretary General from 2009-2014.
"It's shameless to threaten Denmark, a close ally, with military means to conquer Greenland," Rasmussen said.
"I don't think it will happen. But obviously, there is a potential for creating a split within NATO when you are threatening an ally."
Since leaving his NATO role, Rasmussen has created the Alliance for Democracies, a nonprofit organization that seeks to counter what it describes as the global rise of "autocrats and dictators."
Double Defense Spending
Last week the group announced a five-point plan for European defense that included a call to boost defense budgets to 4 percent of GDP by 2028.
This follows moves by the European Union and Europe's military big guns (Britain, France, and Germany) to increase defense spending in the coming years, but it goes well beyond the plans announced so far.
"Russian defense investment is now bigger than the combined defense investment in the rest of Europe. So, we have to step up. We have to at least double the European investment in defense," Rasmussen told RFE/RL.
"For too long, we have relied on a model that doesn't work any longer, a combination of cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from China, and cheap security from the US."
The convergence of security and economic issues was a major theme at a conference Rasmussen hosted in Copenhagen last week, where the five-point plan was discussed.
An Economic NATO
The 72-year-old political and diplomatic veteran singles out the Trump administration's global tariffs as a new danger that has created the need for a kind of economic NATO.
"The Trump administration declared a trade war against the whole world except Russia and North Korea," he said.
"I would suggest to create what we call D7, seven democracies in the world, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand. And I think the backbone of that should be what we would call an economic Article 5. We would consider an attack or coercion against one of those seven countries an attack on all, and we should respond collectively."
It's striking indeed to hear a former NATO chief excluding the United States from a list of global democracies.
"Yes, but the United States have chosen isolationism.... I don't see an American willingness to exercise the global leadership of the free world. So that's why the US is excluded from this D7," Rasmussen said.
Governments around the world are wrestling with the best response to Trump's tariffs. Closer cooperation and trade with other partners are certainly a part of their calculations.
But, as with defense spending, Rasmussen's proposals go well beyond what's being considered in most capitals.
For example, the European Union's much-touted free trade agreement with four South American nations in the Mercosur group has been cited as part of the EU's collective response to a new environment, but France is still hugely wary of ratifying it.
Meanwhile, the EU and individual countries have all responded separately to US tariffs, seeking to negotiate with Washington rather than form a common front.
Rasmussen offers no easy answers to untangling the complex web of interests that make it difficult for multiple nations to forge new global structures. But, he says, it's the challenge that must be overcome.
"For the 19th consecutive year, we have seen a decline in global freedom and democracy. So now it's time to create a stronger cooperation," he said.
"I know from experience with Putin and other autocrats that they only respect power, unity, and a firm stance…. If we act together, if we act in unity, then we can counter the advancing autocracies."
Turnout High As Romanians Choose New President After Months Of Chaos, Controversy
BUCHAREST -- Romanians turned out in droves to vote in the second round of a controversial presidential election, a vote that followed months of unprecedented political chaos.
Turnout by late afternoon on May 18 exceeded 53 percent of eligible voters -- sharply higher than during the first round, with voters outside Romania casting a higher number of ballots than anticipated over two days of voting.
Turnout was also higher than last November's initial vote, which was annulled amid accusations of Russian meddling in the campaign.
The run-off pits ultranationalist candidate George Simion against centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.
Simion was drafted in as a replacement for Calin Georgescu, who was not allowed to run after he won a first round of voting in November.
Simion built on Georgescu's success, as he scored some 41 percent support in the first round of voting on May 4. Dan was a distant second on nearly 21 percent.
In most polls conducted since then, Simion has been ahead though the most recent surveys put the candidates neck-and-neck.
In terms of powers, the president appoints the prime minister, subject to parliamentary approval, and represents Romania at NATO and EU summits. He can also wield the country's EU veto.
"We came out because we hope for a change, we need many things to change for the better in Romania, especially us young people," said Elena Lupu, a 30-year-old voter casting her ballot in a Bucharest polling precinct.
"We want a better future. We want [people] to stop leaving the country. We want to stay here, to have united families, to have jobs for young people," she told RFE/RL's Romanian Service.
Who Is George Simion?
Simion is pledging to completely overturn Romania's politics, taking a Euroskeptic attitude within the European Union and ending support for Ukraine.
"Our position is…neutrality, not escalation, not supplying weapons, and perfect alignment with the policy of the Trump administration," he said on May 8.
Simion has also stressed ideological affiliation with "the MAGA movement" and posted a photo of himself online in a red baseball cap with the logo "Trump Save America."
The political affinity may be mutual, as Washington sharply criticized the decision to annul the first round of elections.
Simion has also riled Romania's neighbors. He has hinted at territorial claims on Ukraine and calls for union with Moldova, which has led to him being banned from entering both countries.
On May 19 a Moldovan court is set to reconsider his ban, which followed his arrest at a protest in the capital, Chisinau, in 2015.
A few years earlier, in 2011, he had a brush with the law in his own country, receiving a fine and six-month ban from entering soccer stadiums for racist chanting at a Romania-Bosnia match.
In December 2019, he co-founded the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) party, which is now the second-largest group in parliament. The party's website says it stands for Christian faith, low taxes, family values, and national sovereignty.
In 2023, former Moldovan Defense Minister Anatol Salaru alleged that Simion had secretly met with an agent of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in Ukraine.
Simion has denied both this incident and the wider claim that he is pro-Russian. He recently lost a court case in which he sought to sue Salaru over the allegation.
His election manifesto includes items that many critics say do not fall within the presidential powers, such cheap housing.
He has also said he would appoint Georgescu as prime minister. Georgescu, 63, has called 38-year-old Simeon "my young protege."
Who Is The Other Candidate?
Nicusor Dan is not a member of any party, winning the race to be mayor of Bucharest as an independent -- and is now seeking to do the same for the presidency. The 55-year-old entered politics in 2015, pledging to fight corruption in the capital.
A mathematician, he gained his doctorate from the Sorbonne University in Paris in 1998 before returning to work at Romania's Mathematics Institute.
It was at this time he began campaigning as an activist on issues related to illegal construction, urban planning, and heritage protection.
After two failed runs to be mayor of Bucharest, Dan was elected in 2020 and then re-elected in 2024 – despite criticism for being a poor communicator while in office.
His decision to run for president raised eyebrows, given that he had only just been given a second term in charge of the capital. Dan explained the decision by referring to the political crisis that was engulfing Romania.
"We are in a moment of balance, the most difficult since 1989," he said, adding that "too many lies" had been told in the country's political life.
Dan said fighting corruption and interest groups would be a major issue for his presidency.
On foreign policy, Dan has spoken of keeping close relations with the United States while maintaining a consistently pro-EU stance.
Speaking after the first round of voting on May 4, Dan said the next round would be "a debate between a pro-Western direction for Romania and an anti-Western one."
It's a message that has so far resonated with educated voters in big cities, which leaves him facing an uphill battle in the second round.
He has had a chance to address voters during three televised debates this week, all of which Simion pulled out of.
Senior international correspondent Ray Furlong contributed to this report.
Estonia Accuses Russia Of 'Serious Threat' To NATO After Fighter Jet Disrupts Tanker Inspection
Estonia has accused Russia of creating a "serious threat" to NATO in the Baltic Sea after a Russian fighter jet disrupted operations by the Estonian Navy to inspect an unflagged tanker that is on the United Kingdom's sanctions list.
The ship, the Jaguar, is believed to be part of Russia's "shadow fleet" that Moscow is using to avoid international sanctions imposed over its war in Ukraine.
Estonia's Navy said the vessel refused to cooperate when asked to stop.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told reporters Russia sent a fighter jet on May 15 "to check the situation, and this fighter jet violated NATO territory for close to one minute."
He added in a post on social media: "This incident is yet another example showing that Russia poses a serious threat not only through its war in Ukraine but also to the NATO alliance as a whole."
Russia has not commented on the incident, but officials have repeatedly said Russian ships have free passage in the Baltic Sea and that any attempt to stop them is dangerous.
Over the past 18 months, there have been numerous incidents in the Baltic Sea in which telecom and electricity cables, as well as gas pipelines, have been damaged.
While attribution has often proved tricky and some of the incidents could have been accidents, some European officials have pointed fingers at Russia's so-called shadow fleet.
This refers to approximately 350 vessels of opaque ownership that are believed to evade Western sanctions on Russian oil by transporting around 80 percent of the supply, with nearly 50 percent departing from Russian Baltic Sea ports.
The European Union has imposed measures on half of these vessels by barring them from calling at EU ports or getting serviced in any way by EU companies.
The recent incidents highlight rising tensions in the Baltic Sea since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago.
In January, NATO and EU leaders agreed to launch a monitoring mission of the Baltic Sea saying Russia's use of the so-called shadow fleet poses a particular threat to the maritime and environmental security in the Baltic Sea region and globally.
"This reprehensible practice also threatens the integrity of undersea infrastructure, increases risks connected to sea-dumped chemical munitions, and significantly supports funding of Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine," NATO allies said.
At More Informal EPC Summit In Tirana, EU Leaders Can 'Get Creative' On Ukraine
Leaders from across Europe will gather on May 16 on Skanderbeg Square in central Tirana for the European Political Community (EPC) summit. The EPC, an idea conceived by French President Emmanuel Macron as a direct response to the war in Ukraine, meets at the highest level twice a year with the host rotating between the 27 EU member states and the 20 non-EU countries.
Now it's Albania's turn, and the event will be something of a crowning achievement for Prime Minister Edi Rama. In power since 2013, he is already one of the most experienced operators in the room, and the meeting comes just five days after a general election in the Western Balkan republic in which his socialist party will finish on top yet again.
Brussels holds Rama in high esteem, with EU officials praising him for his diplomatic skills and sharp wit. A reflection of this is Albania's progress on joining the European Union. In less than a year it has opened a majority of the EU accession chapters and is set to open more by the end of this month.
What Is The European Political Community?
The EPC is not an EU vehicle, nor is it a substitute for EU membership as some EU hopefuls fear. Essentially it's a forum for talking shop that doesn't officially produce any concrete deliverables or a final communique; it has no permanent seat or secretariat.
While the media struggle to explain what sort of animal it is and what purpose it serves given there are so many other European institutions (such as the Council of Europe and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to name a few), leaders appear to love attending its summits.
This is largely because there is minimal official choreography compared to, for example, NATO and EU summits, which follow strict protocols. Sure, there's an opening ceremony, a plenary session, and a family photo. Leaders are then divided into three thematic roundtables focusing on security, competitiveness, and migration.
Most of the one-day gathering, however, will be devoted to various planned and spontaneous bilateral meetings that can quickly turn into larger meetings if needed. It happens without too many accredited aides and advisers, meaning a lot of diplomatic speed-dating and huddles in a nice setting with plenty to eat and drink. It offers "a little bit of freedom and creativity in their otherwise structured lives" as one diplomat put it to me.
EU Leaders Invited To EPC Summit
So far, no one's declined the invitation that went out to all European nations except Belarus, Russia, and the Vatican. The three presidents of the European Council, Commission, and Parliament will attend, as will NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
This will also be German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's first multilateral meeting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to show up even if it's not confirmed until the last minute, and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also expected to come, though he skipped some of the previous EPC summits.
At previous EPC summits, there was a political push to have Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders meet, often together with the French and German leaders, but no such attempt is expected this time around even though it can never be ruled out.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze is invited, as he was to the last one in Budapest in November. EU diplomats are keen to point out that the Tirana meeting is the EPC and not the EU, considering the latter imposed a policy not to engage with high-level Georgian officials after the contested Georgian parliamentary elections last October. If Kobakhidze shows up, it will be interesting to see how EU leaders react.
An Eye On Fico And Vucic
In a similar vein, it will be worth watching how leaders interact with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, both of whom attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, rubbing shoulders with Vladimir Putin.
Fico is largely isolated on the EU level even though no types of sanctions or punishment are in the making after his Moscow trip. Brussels warned Vucic not to make the journey to Russia, noting that as an official candidate country Serbia should align with the bloc's foreign policies.
Vucic looks set to get away with it though. A senior EU official confirmed at a background briefing ahead of the Tirana summit that Serbia will remain a candidate country and there's no consensus among member states to impose sanctions on the country.
The only consequence will be that Serbia won't advance on its EU accession path -- something that is rather moot anyway as the Balkan republic hasn't opened a single negotiating chapter in the past four years.
A Big Week For NATO
On May 14, the chiefs of defense of the military alliance's 32 members meet in Brussels for their last session before the NATO summit at The Hague next month.
Support for Ukraine and NATO missions, operations, and defense plans will all be top of the agenda.
On the same day but in the Turkish seaside resort of Antalya, Rutte will gather NATO foreign ministers for an informal two-day meeting.
The gathering is controversial given Turkey's repressive policies against the opposition, notably the recent jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
The EU's Latest Sanctions Package Against Russia Might Be Its Weakest Yet
The European Union's latest proposal for the next round of sanctions on Russia -- the 17th package since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine over three years ago -- might just be its weakest yet.
Presented by the European Commission earlier this week to the 27 EU member and seen by RFE/RL, contains no hard-hitting economic measures against the Kremlin.
Instead, it features more asset freezes and visa bans on various individuals and entities, mostly Russian citizens and companies involved in the arms industry. It also includes banning 98 more ships from Moscow's so-called shadow fleet from being serviced at EU ports, bringing the total of ships on the list to 250. And lastly, it imposes export restrictions on 35 companies, most of which are Russian but others are Kazakh, Serbian, Turkish, and Uzbek.
The goal, according to EU officials RFE/RL has spoken to, is to adopt the proposal when the bloc's foreign ministers meet on May 20. The club wants to show that Russia's numerous attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in recent weeks shouldn't go unpunished, and approval is also likely to be swift -- the new measures are so uncontroversial that even a sanctions skeptic like Hungary would be ready to give a ready thumbs-up.
According to diplomats familiar with the sanctions negotiations, Budapest will, however, request a certain proposed entity be scrubbed off the list. It's the Dubai-based Litasco, a subsidiary of the Russian energy giant Lukoil. Hungary is one of the very few EU countries still importing Russian oil. Brussels wants to target the company as it has "enabled the procurement of numerous vessels forming part of the so-called shadow fleet," according to the proposal. "These vessels have transported oil from Russia while turning off or manipulating their AIS transponders, not maintaining adequate liability insurance or other financial security, as well as carrying out unsafe maritime operations."
Sanctions On Chinese Companies
There are also questions about whether blacklisting six proposed Chinese companies will fly given that some European capitals are wary of upsetting Beijing too much given the extensive trade links between Brussels and China. The most interesting of these are Poly Technologies, which has provided components for Russian military helicopters, and Skywalker Technology, a producer of the Gerbera drone that Brussels says "has been used by the Russian military in Ukraine, in particular as a decoy drone to overwhelm Ukrainian defense systems."
While this package seems insignificant, the EU has been working on separate sanctions measures targeting Russia in parallel to the 17th package. These are more thematic sanctions consisting of asset freezes and visa bans, and are set to be adopted later in May. These include blacklistings for human rights abuses, the use of chemical weapons, and "destabilizing activities" carried out around the world.
The human rights violation package targets 28 people, all Russian judges and prosecutors, who are responsible for either targeting the deceased Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny and his associates or for sentencing Russians for spreading anti-war messages online.
The chemical weapons proliferation listings target three entities, including the Radiological Chemical and Biological Defense Troops of the Russian Defense Ministry. In its reasoning, the EU is for the first time formally accusing the Kremlin of using chemical weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The Individuals Targets
The proposal also targets 21 individuals and companies for destabilizing activities around the world. These include two people accused of being behind attacks on vehicles of the Estonian interior minister and the editor of a Russian-language newspaper in Tallinn.
Others include Elena Kolbasnikova, a Russian national accused of creating "political structures with the German anti-democratic extreme political right in support of Russia's destabilization of Ukraine," Alina Lipp, a war correspondent with the Russian armed forces in eastern Ukraine, and German blogger Thomas Roper, who "disseminates misinformation about Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and delegitimizes the Ukrainian government."
Two targeted Moldovan nationals, Ivan and Iurie Neculiti, run a Web hosting service registered in the United Kingdom called Stark, which reportedly enables "various Russian state-sponsored and affiliated actors to conduct destabilizing activities including coordinated information manipulation and interference and cyber-attacks against EU and third countries."
There are also a handful of people who allegedly spread Russian propaganda in various African countries and a Russian fishing company, Murman SeaFood. This company is the owner of a vessel that according to the EU "has repeatedly shown untypical behavior and navigation practices inconsistent with their normal fishing activities, including presence in close vicinity to an ongoing NATO military exercise and regular presence close to Norwegian critical infrastructure and military sites."
With A Whirlwind Tour And A Bulging In-Tray, Germany's New Chancellor Steps Out
Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, visits Brussels on May 9 for meetings at the European Union and NATO following a whirlwind first few days in office amid a bulging international in-tray.
Expectations are weighing heavily on Merz, who has stepped onto the global stage this week pledging to bring new vigor to both German and European foreign policy.
It's fair to say the new German chancellor got off to an embarrassing start. For the first time ever, the Bundestag had to vote twice to approve him as he fell six MPs short in the first round.
It was not quite the ringing endorsement needed for a leader of the EU's most important country.
How Will Merz Deal With The US?
Arguably the most urgent issue facing Merz is the stormy relationship with an American administration questioning almost every aspect of the liberal world order that German postwar politics of all stripes have clung to for decades.
Merz has to muster a "coalition of the willing" of largely European countries to stand behind Ukraine – and most importantly, stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
And then there are the domestic headaches: kick-starting a German economy that shrunk in both 2023 and 2024 and is projected to be insipid this year, as well, and finding an answer to the populist far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) that finished second with record numbers in February's general election and is now polling neck-and-neck with Merz's center-right Christian Democrats.
He has already secured changes to the country's rigid debt rules to allow for increased defense spending and the creation of a 500 billion euro spending splurge on infrastructure that Merz hopes will get the economy purring again -- and stave off dissatisfaction that could lead to the Afd becoming even more popular when the next election comes around in four years.
Aiming For A Strong Start With EU Leaders
It does, however, appear that it's in the foreign arena the newly minted chancellor will try to make the strongest early impression.
This week's schedule included Paris, Warsaw, Brussels, and London in a bid to shore up European unity, and Merz is likely to score some early symbolic victories.
Merz is keen to reinvigorate the Germany-France-Poland "Weimar triangle," and in French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Premier Donald Tusk he has counterparts who are on the same page on most aspects of foreign policy.
They will push for increased European defense spending, more sanctions on Russia, an opening of EU accession talks for Ukraine, and increased military support for Kyiv -- the latter by approving the transfer of German Taurus cruise missiles, something that wasn't politically possible under the previous German government.
On Britain, he will be encouraged by closer political and military cooperation to be signed off on at the first EU-UK summit since Brexit in London on May 19. His choices of the experienced Johann Wadephul as foreign minister and retention of the popular Social Democrat Boris Pistorius as defense minister have reassured partners around the world.
But then there are the tricky customers.
Dealing With Central Europe's Populists
Merz will have to grapple with Central European populists in the shape of the Hungarian and Slovak prime ministers, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico. They have stymied EU responses to support Ukraine politically and financially, and prevented bigger punishments meted out on the Kremlin.
But the biggest challenge will be US President Donald Trump.
On paper, there are numerous things that should make them tick. Both of them have been regarded as "outsiders" with minimal political executive experience before entering the highest office but with plenty of know-how of company boardrooms and lush golf greens.
Merz was also an ardent Atlanticist until recently but was, like many Germans, stung by US Vice President JD Vance's harsh critique of Europe at the Munich Security Conference in February and the treatment of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his White House visit in March.
Directly after his election victory, Merz called for Europe to make itself independent from the United States. More recently, he lashed out at American cabinet ministers and urged them to stay out of German domestic policies. This followed criticism from Washington of the decision by Germany's domestic intelligence agency to classify the AfD as an extremist organization.
But it's the practicalities that matter. And here, he still needs Washington onboard for a bit longer. He will meet the Trump both at the G7 in Canada in mid-June and then at the NATO summit at The Hague later that same month.
The two things Merz will want to ensure is American commitment to the military alliance, including the continued US military presence in Germany.
He also wants to ensure the heavily export-oriented German economy isn't facing sky-high American tariffs that for now are paused until July 8 as Brussels and Washington grapple with a potential trade deal.
Merz simply cannot afford too many more embarrassing mishaps.