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Central Asia: Is Regional Turbulence Return Of The Great Game?

Pressure mounts for the U.S. to pull out of Central Asia Just as the wildebeests migrate across the Serengeti, commentary on Central Asia periodically turns to talk of the Great Game. In its 19th-century variety, the Game pitted England against Russia in a scramble for control of Eurasia. Early 21st-century interpretations expand the number of players -- bringing in such regional heavyweights as Iran, Pakistan, and especially China -- but retain the central premise: big powers projecting their designs across Central Asia.

The wildebeests are now on the move en masse for the first time since 2001. The last spate of Great Gaming flared up in the wake of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, when the United States gained the use of military facilities in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to support military operations in Afghanistan. In 2004, long-cool Russian-Uzbek relations warmed to a rapprochement against a backdrop of deepening Western dissatisfaction with Uzbekistan's human rights record. On 24 March 2005, a suddenly restive Kyrgyz street brought down long-ruling President Askar Akaev, prompting parallels with earlier changes in Georgia and Ukraine. And on 13 May 2005, Uzbek police and military units used force to put down an uprising in Andijon, outraging public opinion in the West even as Russia and China chimed in with warm words of support for Uzbek President Islam Karimov.

The momentum has continued to build. In early July, the leaders of member states in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which brings together China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, held a summit in Astana. The summit's final communique called on the forces of the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan to provide a deadline for withdrawal from the military facilities they are currently using in Central Asia, a clear reference to the U.S. air bases in Manas, Kyrgyzstan, and Karshi-Khanabad, Uzbekistan.

Since the summit, Russia has suggested it may double its military presence in Kyrgyzstan, reports hint at increased Russian-Uzbek military cooperation, Uzbekistan's government-controlled press has mounted a campaign against various forms of U.S. meddling, and China looms large in the wings.

Still The Same Game?

Clearly, another season of Great Gamesmanship is upon us. Or is it? A closer examination reveals that the 19th-century paradigm of great powers at play amid the nomads' yurts and sundry Central Asian backdrops obscures at least as much as it explains.

In Kyrgyzstan, regime change produced a delicate domestic situation with numerous conflicting pressures, and the keynote in statements by the post-Akaev leadership has been a desire to avoid conflicts on the international arena.

Conditions are somewhat less than propitious. After violence in Andijon, nearly 500 Uzbek citizens fled to Kyrgyzstan, where they remain as asylum seekers in a camp in Jalal-Abad Province. Uzbek authorities have made it clear that they would like to have many of the asylum seekers back, while international organizations (and Kyrgyz NGOs) have strongly urged against their extradition, warning that they could face torture at home.

Precarious Balance

Against this contentious backdrop, Kyrgyz officials have strained to strike a balance. On the one hand, Kyrgyzstan has put at least 29 Uzbek asylum seekers in detention in response to information received from Uzbek authorities, who have requested the extradition of over 200 Uzbek citizens from Kyrgyzstan, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service reported on 7 July. Prosecutor-General Azimbek Beknazarov has stressed that Kyrgyzstan will honor its international obligations -- which would not permit the extradition of asylum seekers to Uzbekistan -- while adding that it will also check the information it is receiving from Uzbekistan.

With international organizations currently seeking a third country, or countries, to take in the asylum seekers, the official Kyrgyz stance clearly suggests an attempt to mollify its large, angry neighbor while hoping that the international community will engineer a solution to the dilemma sooner rather than later.

Kyrgyz statements in the wake of the SCO's demand for a U.S. withdrawal timetable also resembled an attempt to tack against the wind. Immediately after his victory in the 10 July presidential election, President-elect Kurmanbek Bakiev voiced his support for the SCO declaration. Since parliamentary and presidential elections have taken place in Afghanistan, Bakiev carefully stated, "Now we can begin reviewing the issue of the advisability of the U.S. military presence [in Kyrgyzstan]," RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service reported on 11 July.

Kyrgyzstan's ambassador in Moscow went even farther, saying that the U.S. base "will become unnecessary as tension eases in Afghanistan," Interfax-AVN reported. But by 18 July, Kyrgyz presidential spokesman Avazbek Atakhanov had walked those statements back considerably. In an interview with Kyrgyz Radio 1, he noted that the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan is a "bilateral issue" and stressed, "We are not talking here about the withdrawal of the U.S. air base from Kyrgyzstan."

The maneuvering extended to Russian plans for an expanded presence in Kyrgyzstan. On 14 July, Kyrgyzstan's Defense Ministry confirmed that Russia might double its current troop presence of approximately 500 servicemen at its base in Kant, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service reported. But a spokesman noted that "an additional intergovernmental agreement in the framework of the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan] between Kyrgyzstan and Russia" would be required to boost troop strength. As in the case of the asylum seekers, official Kyrgyz statements appeared calculated to avoid conflict with necessary allies near and far, whatever the differences between those allies might be.

Russia Ready To Play?

But even if a new agreement emerges, it remains to be seen whether Russia is really willing and able to expand its presence. In February 2004, General Yevgenii Yurev, commander of Russia's 5th Airborne Division, said that the number of Russian service personnel at Kant would rise from 200 to 800 by the end of the year, Interfax reported. In August 2004, a source at the base said that reinforcements would bring Kant's strength up to 650 men and 20 aircraft by the end of 2004, Interfax-AVN reported. And in October 2004, General Yurev promised during a visit to the base that personnel numbers at Kant would reach 1,000 by the end of 2004, ITAR-TASS reported. But in February 2005, personnel at the base appealed to Russia's Defense Ministry, complaining of understaffing and a lack of financing, Interfax-AVN reported. Their letter stated: "Instead of 1,200 servicemen, who were to have facilitated operation of the air base, the unit now employs 120 people, including volunteers and conscripts."

Perhaps aware of these twists and turns, Vyacheslav Smirnov, the director of Russia's Political Sociology Institute, said on 13 July that Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan is actually declining, apn.ru reported. Smirnov compared Russia's influence in Kyrgyzstan unfavorably to that of Kazakhstan and the United States, predicted that newly elected Kyrgyz President Bakiev would not seek the withdrawal of the U.S. base from Kyrgyzstan, and concluded that Bakiev's desire for balance rendered "the appearance of a Chinese military base in Kyrgyzstan...very likely."

The issue of a foreign military presence is even more fraught in neighboring Uzbekistan, where the fallout from unrest in Andijon has sparked tension over the U.S. air base in Karshi-Khanabad. High-ranking U.S. officials have called for an independent international inquiry into events in Andijon, a request that the government of Uzbek President Karimov has repeatedly and adamantly denied.

Uzbekistan limited flights out of the U.S. base at Karshi-Khanabad in the wake of Andijon (although the official justification for doing so was not linked to the U.S. position on events there), and the Foreign Ministry issued its own follow-up statement to the SCO declaration on a timetable for withdrawal from bases in Central Asia, indicating that the issue of Karshi-Khanabad is very much on the table in Uzbekistan.

These strains come at a time of warming Russian-Uzbek relations and suggestions of tighter military ties. After President Karimov's recent visit to Moscow, Vladimir Mukhin, an observer for Russia's "Nezavisimaya gazeta" -- a newspaper controlled by exiled oligarch Boris Berezovskii -- reported on 5 July that Uzbekistan is ready to grant Russia the use of 10 Uzbek air bases, including Karshi-Khanabad, "in the event of crisis situations in Central Asia." Citing anonymous "military sources," Mukhin said that the base deal was part of a memorandum Putin and Karimov signed, with Russia offering to pony up military hardware and riot gear in exchange for new toeholds in the region.

The unconfirmed memorandum is dubious, both in terms of Russia's current force-projection capability and, more importantly, the efficacy of using Russian troops to quell unrest in Uzbekistan, or anywhere else in Central Asia. Yet it conveys a commonplace in Great Gaming analysis -- as U.S. influence wanes, Russian waxes.

Antirevolutionary Fervor

While the tensions in U.S.-Uzbek relations are certainly real in the wake of Andijon, the Russian-Uzbek relationship is not a hierarchical one in the tradition of great powers and clients. It derives, rather, from a shared reaction to the perceived danger of regime change, which both Tashkent and Moscow increasingly see as a nefarious U.S. project.

A statement issued by the Uzbek Embassy in Kyrgyzstan on 16 July provided a typical example of the conspiratorial logic and allusive rhetoric that pervade statements on the vast U.S. conspiracy. The embassy's statement warned, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service reported, that "the puppeteers who want to destabilize the Ferghana Valley by means of obedient international organizations and NGOs continue to exploit the fallout from the failed plan to bring off an armed coup in Uzbekistan in order to justify their step-by-step imposition of the so-called 'project to advance democracy.'"

Andranik Migranyan is a political analyst in Russia who has written widely in this vein. In a 13 July article in "Komsomolskaya pravda," he described the U.S. presence in Central Asia as a "destabilizing factor...after the Americans' actions to stimulate 'colored' revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, and after the recent events in Kyrgyzstan." Before Andijon, Migranyan writes, "the blueprint for the opposition to come to power that was tried in Serbia worked flawlessly in Georgia, Ukraine, and, to a certain degree, in Kyrgyzstan." But Migranyan has hope: "It was in Uzbekistan that, for the first time in the post-Soviet world, 'colored' revolutions received a short, sharp shock." And Migranyan sees even greater things to come after this turning point: "It seems that U.S. foreign-policy expansion has reached its limit and we are entering the era of the gradual decline of the American empire."

Where Migranyan and the Uzbek Embassy in Kyrgyzstan come together is in a peculiar understanding of the "project to advance democracy" as a vast conspiracy fomented by the United States through "obedient international organizations and NGOs." This is also the common ground on which the Uzbek and Russian ruling elites would like to make their stand against what they perceive as a clear and present danger.

Dangers Of Democracy

How clear and present? In a recent poll that surveyed 2,100 people throughout Russia, the Public Opinion Foundation found that 42 percent of respondents agreed that preconditions exist in Russia for the sort of mass unrest that took place in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, gazeta.ru reported on 15 July. Thirty-two percent said that such conditions do not exist. Respondents displayed a certain ambivalence about the causes of revolution, however. Echoing the remarks quoted above, 55 percent of respondents felt that events in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan occurred as a result of meddling by outside forces. But when queried about Russia, 42 percent said that forces within the country are capable of organizing mass protests, while only 5 percent felt that outside forces could do so. Moreover, 18 percent of respondents listed as possible causes of unrest "dissatisfaction with living conditions" and the "further impoverishment of the masses."

We lack poll data for Uzbekistan, but the recent unrest in Andijon speaks volumes. And while independent observers have more often than not pointed to socioeconomic tensions as the underlying threat to stability in Uzbekistan, that does not seem to be the conclusion the ruling elite, led by President Karimov, has drawn. Their fears are of the "puppeteers."

The chief conclusion this confusing picture implies is that explanations derived from the 19th-century Great Game, or 20th-century Cold War rivalry, are of limited use in clarifying 21st-century jostling in Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan has wiggle room amid greater powers, as long as it wiggles well, and Uzbekistan and Russia may be drawing once again into an embrace, but it is not a colonial, or even a postcolonial, one.

How, then, to explain the zone of geopolitical turbulence Central Asia appears to be entering? Bearing in mind recent events in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan; leaving aside conspiracy theories in favor of domestic concerns; and scrutinizing the ambiguous achievements of the past decade and a half, the root cause of the trouble is not great-power push-and-pull, but rather the ossification of post-Soviet ruling elites and the decay of the ad hoc political systems they shaped for their convenience.

See also:

Is Russia Helping Tashkent Clean Up After Andijon?

Russia Could Double Troops At Kyrgyz Base; Future Of U.S. Base In Doubt

Karimov, Putin Say Andijon Violence Was Planned Abroad

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Afghan musicians were persecuted after the Taliban gained control of their country in 2021 and many fled to Pakistan. Those who remain there have found ways to continue their profession but now that Pakistan has launched a new campaign to deport Afghans, they are worried about their future.

Russia Removes Afghanistan's Taliban From Terror List In Step Toward Recognition

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meeting with the Taliban's Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Russia, October 2024
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meeting with the Taliban's Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi during a visit to Russia in October 2024.

Russia’s Supreme Court removed Afghanistan's militant Taliban rulers from its list of banned terrorist groups in a step toward recognizing the group that seized power in 2021 as international forces withdrew from the war-torn country.

Russian state news agencies said that in its ruling on April 17, the Supreme Court sided with a petition from the Prosecutor-General's Office, a sign the move is a coordinated policy change with support from top legal and political authorities, who designated the Taliban as a terrorist organization more than 20 years ago.

The suspension of the terrorist designation does not amount to full diplomatic recognition of the Taliban government.

Amid poverty and unrest in the country, the Taliban rulers have made moves to open ties with the rest of the world. But Western nations have been reluctant to engage with the extremist group amid complaints of widespread human rights violations, especially against girls and women.

Russia has not officially recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, nor has it re-established ambassadorial-level relations. However, the April 17 ruling may lay the legal groundwork for expanded cooperation, investment, and potentially future recognition.

Russia officially banned the Taliban in 2003, aligning itself with international counterterrorism standards and reflecting concerns over jihadist movements in Central Asia and Russia's North Caucasus region.

Still, Russia has been one of the few major powers to keep its embassy in Kabul operational during the Taliban regime.

Russian diplomats, intelligence officials, and even business interests have since engaged with Taliban authorities — especially on regional security, counter-narcotics, and economic cooperation, such as potential mining and energy projects.

Russia Looking To Gain Influence

With Moscow eager to strengthen its influence in Central Asia amid growing competition with the West and China’s expanding footprint, Afghanistan has become a critical piece of the regional chessboard.

The court’s decision may also be linked to Moscow’s concerns about the Islamic State–Khorasan group, which has claimed responsibility for several high-profile attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and even within Russia itself — including the deadly Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.

Some analysts say Russian officials likely view the Taliban as a lesser evil or even a potential security partner.

The suspension of the ban may spark unease in Central Asian countries such as Tajikistan, which has historically viewed the Taliban with deep suspicion.

While some regional governments have engaged with Kabul out of necessity, fears remain about Taliban-inspired radicalization, border security, and cross-border militancy.

In September 2024, Kyrgyzstan removed the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations, aligning with similar moves by neighboring Kazakhstan earlier that year.

Another Central Asian nation, Uzbekistan, has been at the forefront of engaging with the Taliban, emphasizing economic cooperation and regional connectivity.

China is also cautiously increasing its engagement with the Taliban, including through infrastructure and investment talks under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Public Executions By Taliban Spark Global Outcry

Taliban (file photo)
Taliban (file photo)

The Taliban carried out public executions of four individuals on April 11 -- the highest single-day number since it returned to power -- prompting a wave of condemnation from groups around the world.

Local Taliban officials confirmed that the individuals — who were accused of murder — were executed in front of crowds gathered in the western provinces of Farah, Nimroz, and Badghis.

Eyewitnesses at one of the sites, who spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Azadi on condition of anonymity, said family members of the victims shot the accused.

"Their families offered blood money to spare their relatives' lives, but the victims' relatives refused. People here don't fully understand these issues — this kind of event leaves a serious psychological impact," the person said.

In Nimroz province, the Taliban invited civilians, civil servants, and military personnel to witness the execution at a stadium in Zaranj.

"The man was shot by the victim’s family. Watching this scene was unbearable. No one wants to witness a killing, even if it is declared a divine punishment," said one local resident.

The executions, part of the Taliban’s hardline interpretation of Islamic law, are described by the regime as "qisas," or retributive justice.

Since they seized power in August 2021, the Taliban have resumed corporal punishments and public executions, echoing their repressive rule of the 1990s. So far, at least 10 individuals have been publicly executed.

Rights organizations say these punishments are a clear violation of international law.

They say the use of executions as a public spectacle is not only inhumane but also contributes to a culture of fear and trauma in communities already scarred by decades of war and violence.

In a statement posted on X, Amnesty International condemned the executions, calling them "deplorable."

"Afghanistan: The deplorable public executions of four people in Nimroz, Farah and Badghis in Afghanistan today point to Taliban’s continued alarming abuse of human rights in the country. The Taliban de facto authorities continue to flagrantly flout human rights principles," it said.

"The international community must put pressure on the Taliban to stop this blatant human rights abuse and help ensure international guarantees are upheld in Afghanistan."

The Taliban claim that the executions followed "transparent investigations and justice procedures," but the United Nations and multiple human rights bodies have consistently disputed such assertions, citing the absence of a functioning judicial system and lack of due process in Taliban courts.

"We are appalled by executions of four men in the Badghis, Nimroz and Farah provinces this morning," the United Nations rights office said on X, urging "the de facto authorities in Afghanistan to place a moratorium on the use of the death penalty."

Pakistan's Deportation Drive Sees Mass Exodus Of Afghans Ahead Of Deadline

Afghan refugees deported from Pakistan arrive with their belongings at a makeshift camp near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in Torkham, Nangarhar Province, on April 7.
Afghan refugees deported from Pakistan arrive with their belongings at a makeshift camp near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in Torkham, Nangarhar Province, on April 7.

Thousands of Afghan refugees in Pakistan have left via the Torkham border crossing as part of Islamabad's large-scale deportation campaign.

The government initially set a March 31 deadline for Afghan nationals to leave voluntarily, but the deadline was extended to April 10. Still, thousands have been forcibly removed since the beginning of the month.

The stepped-up deportation campaign comes as Pakistani authorities charge that "illegal immigrants" pose security concerns and economic challenges.

The Pakistani government has frequently linked Afghan nationals to militant violence and criminal activity -- claims the Taliban-led administration in Kabul firmly denies.

Pakistan Forcibly Deports Thousands Of Afghan Refugees Pakistan Forcibly Deports Thousands Of Afghan Refugees
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The deportation campaign has sparked strong criticism as authorities move forward with the controversial policy.

Human rights organizations warn that those forced to return to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan may face serious dangers including persecution, violence, and extreme economic hardship. Particularly at risk are vulnerable groups such as women, journalists, human rights advocates, and former government employees.

Pakistan's deportation drive targets Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders, undocumented migrants, and those who arrived after the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan.

There are roughly 800,000 ACC holders and 1.4 million Afghans with Proof of Registration (POR) cards issued by the UN refugee agency. While POR holders are currently exempt from deportation -- at least until their permits expire in June -- ACC holders lack such protection. Their temporary residency in Pakistan is subject to the federal government's discretion, with no assurance of extension beyond official deadlines.

This policy creates complications, as members of the same family may have different legal statuses.

Many of those being forced to leave have never lived in Afghanistan and see Pakistan as their only home.

Pakistan Forcibly Deports Thousands Of Afghan Refugees

Pakistan Forcibly Deports Thousands Of Afghan Refugees Pakistan Forcibly Deports Thousands Of Afghan Refugees
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Thousands of Afghan refugees living in Pakistan have been forcibly repatriated since Pakistani authorities set an April 10 deadline for those without documents to leave the country. Truckloads of Afghans have crossed the Torkham border from Pakistan into Afghanistan. Many refugees are reluctant to return to the Taliban-controlled country.

For Afghan Refugees In Pakistan, A 'Cruel' Countdown Has Begun

Islamabad is implementing the deportation of millions of Afghan refugees -- and rights groups are calling it cruel and dangerous. (file photo)
Islamabad is implementing the deportation of millions of Afghan refugees -- and rights groups are calling it cruel and dangerous. (file photo)

Pakistan’s plan to deport millions of Afghan migrants has drawn sharp criticism as the country begins implementing its controversial policy.

Rights groups warn that many returnees face severe risks in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, including persecution, violence, and economic hardship. Vulnerable individuals such as women, journalists, human rights defenders, and former government officials are particularly at risk.

The government had initially set March 31 as the deadline for Afghan migrants to leave voluntarily or face deportation. However, the deadline was postponed until April 10 due to the Eid al-Fitr holidays marking the end of Ramadan, officials said.

Masses Of Afghans Being Deported From Pakistan Face Angst And Uncertainty
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The delay provides a brief reprieve for tens of thousands of Afghans but does not alter the government’s goal of expelling up to 3 million migrants by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, around 40,000 Afghans in Pakistan await uncertain resettlement to third countries, mostly in the West. Many fled after the Taliban’s 2021 return, fearing retribution due to ties with the United States, NATO, and other Western organizations.

Who Is Being Deported?

The deportation campaign targets Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders, undocumented individuals, and those who arrived after the Taliban’s return to power.

There are around 800,000 ACC card holders and 1.4 million Afghans who have been issued Proof of Registration (POR) cards by the UN refugee agency. POR card holders are not yet being deported, Pakistani officials say, as their permits expire in June.

ACC holders are granted temporary permission to reside in Pakistan, but the validity and duration of their stay are determined by the federal government. Unlike POR cardholders, ACC holders do not have guaranteed protections against deportation beyond the government’s specified deadlines.

This poses another problem, as members of the same family can hold different immigration statuses.

That’s the case for Rehmat Khan, a man in his 50s who is facing immediate deportation because he is an ACC card holder, while the other members of his family are POR card holders.

“I don’t know how I can leave my family behind, and I don’t know who will support them when I am deported to Afghanistan,” he told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal.

Rehmat Khan is one of approximately 20,000 Afghans who live in Jalala refugee camp, some 150 kilometers northwest of Islamabad. Residents of the camp have been formally notified to prepare to leave.

Most of the Afghans in the camp are descendants of refugees who migrated to Pakistan after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Many are in their 30s, meaning they have never lived in Afghanistan and consider Pakistan their home.

The camp functions as a small village, with several schools, houses mostly made of mud, and a makeshift bazaar.

“I am in 11th grade. Sending me back to Afghanistan at this point in the school year will ruin my future,” a student who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons told Radio Mashaal. “There are no educational opportunities there, and I am unfamiliar with the education system. I was born and raised here, and I know this place better than Afghanistan.”

A holding camp to process the relocation of refugees has been established in Landi Kotal in Peshawar, where Frontier Corps paramilitary forces and local police are deployed.

While no refugees are currently housed in the camp, officials expect an influx of families in the coming days as the repatriation process gains momentum.

Rights Groups Alarmed by ‘Cruel’ Deadline

The United Nations has expressed alarm over the plan, warning that some people would be at risk once in Afghanistan.

“We urge Pakistan to continue to provide safety to Afghans at risk, irrespective of their documentation status,” said Philippa Candler, UNHCR's country representative, said in a statement on February 5, when the initial deadline was set.

Tents stand in a migrant camp at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Torkham, Afghanistan, Friday, November 2023
Tents stand in a migrant camp at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in Torkham, Afghanistan, Friday, November 2023

Amnesty International has also condemned the deportations, calling them a violation of international human rights law.

“The Pakistani government’s unyielding and cruel deadline to remove Afghan refugees shows little respect for international human rights law, particularly the principle of non-refoulement,” Amnesty’s deputy regional director for South Asia, Isabelle Lassee, said on March 26.

She added that portraying Afghan refugees as a threat is “disingenuous” and scapegoats a community that has fled persecution.

Despite mounting criticism, Pakistani officials defend the policy as necessary for national security and resource management.

The Pakistani government has often blamed militant violence and criminal activity on Afghan citizens, allegations rejected by the extremist Taliban-led government in Kabul.

Masses Of Afghans Being Deported From Pakistan Face Angst And Uncertainty

Masses Of Afghans Being Deported From Pakistan Face Angst And Uncertainty
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With Pakistan beginning to enforce a deportation deadline that passed on March 31, hundreds of thousands of Afghans who fled the Taliban's takeover in 2021 now face an uncertain future. Other Afghans have lived in Pakistan's Mardan camp for generations, and many have never lived in Afghanistan. Some have established businesses in the camp that they say could never function under a ruined, Taliban-run economy.

Hundreds Of Thousands Of Afghans In Pakistan Brace For Deportations  

Pakistani police check the documents of Afghan refugees during a search operation to find illegal immigrants on the outskirts of Karachi. (file photo)
Pakistani police check the documents of Afghan refugees during a search operation to find illegal immigrants on the outskirts of Karachi. (file photo)

More than 800,000 Afghans who fled Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover in 2021 live without papers in neighboring Pakistan.

These undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants face a rapidly approaching deportation order issued by Islamabad requiring them to leave the country by March 31.

Another 1.4 million Afghans who are formally registered with the Pakistani government and who hold a Proof of Residence card issued by the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) have until June 30 to return to their homeland. Many have lived in Pakistan for decades.

The fate of an additional 40,000 Afghans who are waiting to be resettled to third countries, mostly in the West, is unclear.

Pakistan initially said these at-risk Afghans, a group that includes activists, journalists, and former members of the defunct Western-backed Afghan government and its armed forces, must leave or face deportation by March 31. But a source at the Pakistani Interior Ministry told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal that the deadline for them to leave the country has been extended to June 30.

Among this group are some 15,000 Afghans who are waiting to be resettled in the United States, although their status remains unclear after President Donald Trump's administration announced that the US Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) would be suspended for at least three months starting on January 27.

A group of Afghan refugees arrive in Toronto Pearson International Airport, Canada. in August 2021.
A group of Afghan refugees arrive in Toronto Pearson International Airport, Canada. in August 2021.

“We are left in a deep despair,” said Hina, a 25-year-old Afghan woman who lives with her family in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar.

Her family had been cleared for resettlement in the United States and even booked their flights from Islamabad. But now they are in limbo.

“Our dreams of building a safe future [in the United States] have been shattered,” added Hina. “We can’t return to Afghanistan where our lives will be at risk, nor can we build a stable life in Pakistan.”

Growing Fears

Pakistan has already forcibly deported more than 800,000 undocumented Afghans since 2023, when it launched a major crackdown, according to the UN.

The deportees have returned to a country gripped by devastating humanitarian and economic crises, and many have struggled to access shelter, health care, and food and water.

The deportations have coincided with tensions soaring between the unrecognized Taliban government in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Afghans Paying A 'Huge Sum Of Money' To Leave Pakistan Amid Crackdown
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Islamabad has accused the Taliban of sheltering Pakistani militants, a claim rejected by the Afghan militant group.

Ahead of the March 31 deadline, Pakistani police conducted night raids and arbitrarily detained and arrested hundreds of Afghan refugees in the capital, Islamabad, and the nearby city of Rawalpindi, according to international rights groups.

Videos shared on social media show Pakistani police using loudspeakers to order undocumented Afghans to leave Islamabad.

"The problem is that our children go to school here and we have jobs here,” Obaidullah, an undocumented Afghan refugee living in Peshawar, told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi. “What will we do in Afghanistan?”

Dire Situation

The tens of thousands of Afghans who are awaiting resettlement abroad face a race against time.

Many of them are in a dire financial situation in Pakistan, said Maiwand Alami, who leads an NGO to help Afghan refugees in Islamabad.

“They have sold their homes in Afghanistan, but that money has since run out,” Alami told RFE/RL. “But [their] biggest problem is uncertainty about their immigration cases. Everybody is anxious about it.”

“Afghans in Pakistan are now required to extend their stay every month. It costs 20,000 rupees [about $71] per person which is a lot of money here, especially if you don’t have any income,” Alami said.

The resettlement of Afghans to the West is uncertain amid increasingly anti-migrant sentiment across Europe and the United States.

Trump said the United States “lacks the ability to absorb large numbers of migrants, and in particular, refugees into its communities in a manner that does not compromise the availability of resources for Americans.”

He ordered the suspension of USRAP “until such time as the further entry into the United States of refugees aligns with the interests of the United States.”

American Woman Freed By Taliban, Second Release Of US Hostage In 8 Days

Faye Hall speaks on the phone at the Qatari Embassy in Kabul following her release.
Faye Hall speaks on the phone at the Qatari Embassy in Kabul following her release.

An American woman has been released by the Taliban rulers in Afghanistan after being detained since February, the second freeing of a US citizen in the past eight days.

In a video posted by US President Donald Trump on March 29, Faye Hall said she had been released by the Taliban after being detained in the war-torn country last month.

"I've never been so proud to be an American citizen," Hall said in the video. "Thank you, Mr President…God bless you."

Trump thanked Hall for the comments and added: "So honored with your words!"

Former U.S. Special Representative to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad first announced the release hours earlier on X, saying it had occurred on March 27. He said she was in the care of the Qatari delegation in Kabul.

"American citizen Faye Hall, just released by the Taliban, is now in the care of our friends, the Qataris in Kabul, and will soon be on her way home," said Khalilzad, who has been part of a US team seeking the release of hostages held by the Taliban.

The development came a week after George Glezmann, 66, was released from detention in Kabul following the first visit by a senior US official to Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power in the wake of the withdrawal of international troops in August 2021.

Hall had been detained in February while with a British couple in their 70s, Barbie and Peter Reynolds.

British media said the Reynolds had been operating school projects in Afghanistan for 18 years and had remained in the country despite the Taliban’s return to power.

Reuters quoted a US official as saying Adam Boehler, Washington's special envoy for hostage affairs, had worked with Qatari officials and others to win Hall’s release.

There was no immediate information on the British couple. Their daughter has pleaded for their release, citing health concerns.

Several Americans are still detained in Afghanistan.

Upon his release, Glezmann also thanked Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others who helped free him.

He told Fox News he was abducted in the streets of Kabul and thrown "into a dungeon with no windows no nothing."

Two other Americans held in Afghanistan were exchanged in late January for a Taliban man imprisoned for life in California on drug and terrorism charges.

Ryan Corbett and William McKenty were swapped for Khan Mohammed, who was sentenced to two life terms in 2008 and was incarcerated in a US prison.

Aid worker Corbett, 40, and Mahmood Habibi, 37 -- who led the Afghan Aviation Authority under the previous Afghan government -- were detained separately in August 2022.

The world community has not recognized the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan, although some countries -- including Russia, China, and Turkey -- still maintain embassies in Kabul.

Qatar has also maintained direct contact with the Taliban and has helped broker negotiations for the release of US hostages.

Amid poverty and unrest in the country, the Taliban rulers have made moves to open ties with the rest of the world. Western nations are reluctant to engage with the extremist group amid complaints of widespread human rights violations, especially against girls and women.

With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Azadi, Reuters, AFP, and AP

Millions Of Afghan Girls Barred From School For Fourth Consecutive Year

An Afghan teacher collects books in a school in Kabul, Afghanistan, in December 2022.
An Afghan teacher collects books in a school in Kabul, Afghanistan, in December 2022.

The new school year started in Afghanistan on March 22, but for the fourth consecutive year, millions of teenage girls were barred from attending classes.

Among them was Khalida, who was in the ninth grade when the Taliban seized power and banned education for girls above 12 years old.

“The ban has had a big impact on my life,” Khalida, now 18, told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi. “I used to spend all my time on my studies. Now my time passes aimlessly.”

The school ban has had a catastrophic impact on an estimated 2.2 million girls in Afghanistan, where the Taliban has erased women from public life and severely restricted their fundamental rights.

There has been a surge in forced, early, and child marriages. Child marriages have increased by around 25 percent since the Taliban takeover, according to the UN.

The lack of educational and professional prospects for women has fueled a rise in female suicides, making the country one of the few in the world where more women take their own lives than men.

"The lack of access to education not only threatens our future but also hinders our country from progress and development,” said another teenage Afghan girl, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

“We have the right to study, progress, and have a bright future," she told Radio Azadi.

UNICEF, the UN's children's agency, said the repercussions of the school ban will last for generations.

“The ban negatively impacts the health system, the economy, and the future of the nation,” UNICEF said in a March 22 statement.

“With fewer girls receiving an education, girls face a higher risk of child marriage with negative repercussions on their well-being and health.”

The agency warned that over 4 million girls will be out of school if the ban lasts until 2030.

Afghan women walk by posters of Taliban leaders and flags in Kabul, Afghanistan, in August 2021.
Afghan women walk by posters of Taliban leaders and flags in Kabul, Afghanistan, in August 2021.

Calls To Do More

Senior UN officials and Afghan female activists have termed the Taliban’s treatment of Afghan girls and women as “gender apartheid.”

They have called for the international community to put more pressure on the Taliban to reverse its ban on education for girls beyond the sixth grade.

No country has recognized the Taliban’s government, which is under international sanctions. But a growing number of countries, including some in the West, are cooperating with its government on trade, security-related issues, and immigration.

"The Taliban still go around and travel freely,” said Pashtana Durrani, a prominent Afghan education activist who lives in exile.

“They give interviews. They have bank accounts. Their families live abroad yet they have banned Afghan women from getting an education.”

She added: “The international community should be asked whether they truly want the Taliban to open girls’ schools or not?”

Uncertainty Clouds The Future Of Thousands Of Afghans Seeking US Migration

Afghan refugees in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, hold placards during a meeting earlier this year to discuss their situation after US President Donald Trump paused refugee programs.
Afghan refugees in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, hold placards during a meeting earlier this year to discuss their situation after US President Donald Trump paused refugee programs.

For over three years, Syed Abdul Samad Muzoon, a middle-aged former Afghan security official, has lived with his wife and their teenage daughter in Pakistan to pursue immigration to the United States.

During Washington’s nearly two-decade-long war in Afghanistan, he worked for the Afghan security forces in sensitive roles, he said, helping the US war effort.

Yet, there is still no clarity on whether they will ever be able to make a fresh start in the United States because of new curbs on immigration.

In January, hundreds of Afghans cleared for resettlement in the United States were prevented from traveling to the country after President Donald Trump immediately suspended Washington’s refugee program and foreign aid after assuming office on January 20.

On February 18, Reuters reported that the State Department's program to manage Afghan resettlement in the United States will be shut down in April.

Media reports suggest that the Trump administration could impose a new travel ban to bar the entry of people from Afghanistan and Pakistan, which would close all pathways for Afghans to move to the United States.

The State Department, however, disputes this. “There is no list,” Tammy Bruce, its spokesperson, told journalists on March 17.

Trump has been elected twice on an anti-immigration platform. In a Gallup poll from 2024, a majority of Americans (55 percent) said that they believed there should be less immigration to the United States.

Since the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, Washington has helped some 200,000 Afghans resettle.

But Muzoon and many more Afghans might never have a chance to begin a new life in the United States. Tens of thousands of them have been living in Pakistan, Qatar, Albania, and other countries for years as they wait for a final decision on their refugee and immigration cases. Fearing retribution by the Taliban, many are fearful of returning to Afghanistan.

'Extreme Predicament'

Advocacy groups estimate that up to 200,000 more Afghans may be eligible for US immigration. Meanwhile, after reviewing government documents, CBS reported that more than 40,000 Afghans who have already been cleared to leave the country are now stranded.

“I and other Afghan refugees here are in an extreme predicament,” Muzoon said.

Since late 2023, Pakistan has expelled more than 800,000 Afghans, and in the capital, Islamabad, Afghans face constant harassment and police brutality.

Muzoon and 20,000 more Afghans in Islamabad now fear repatriation to Afghanistan after the Pakistani government announced it would forcefully deport some 1.5 million documented and undocumented Afghans if they fail to leave by the end of this month.

“I am suffering from the uncertainty and the seemingly endless wait for our cases,” he said.

Muzoon said threats to his life and family prompted him to flee Afghanistan soon after the Taliban seized the Afghan capital, Kabul, on August 15, 2021, as it toppled the pro-western Afghan republic.

He is among more than half a million Afghans, mostly educated professionals and officials who were integral to running the Afghan republic, who fled the Taliban’s takeover.

Most feared being persecuted for working with the US-led international forces in Afghanistan. Others were senior officials in the Afghan government or worked in the civil society sector.

Three years on, those still waiting for a decision on their US immigration are stuck.

“We are living in extreme despair,” said Maiwand Alami Afghan. He leads an informal association of Afghan refugees in Islamabad.

'Hanging By A Thread'

He said most families in Islamabad sold their properties and belongings in Afghanistan, but that money is now running out.

“Most of us are hanging by a thread,” he said.

Afghan said he had worked for US-funded development projects, which, he fears, makes it impossible for him to return to Afghanistan because the Taliban have persecuted some Afghans associated with the US presence in the country.

“We will still be refugees in our own country, because we don’t have a house, job, or any prospects to earn a livelihood,” he said.

Washington, however, does not look like it will be welcoming any more migrants. During his election campaign, President Trump promised stricter controls on immigration.

In his speech to Congress on March 4, Trump said his administration “has launched the most sweeping border and immigration crackdown in American history.”

Steps taken by Trump after taking office have effectively blocked or suspended the two primary routes for Afghans to immigrate to the United States.

Under the Special Immigration Visa (SIV), Afghans who worked directly for the US government, such as embassy staff or translators for its forces, qualify for relocation. Afghans granted visas under this program can still relocate to the US without financial assistance from Washington, according to Afghans seeking relocation under the program.

“Those who have assisted us and worked with us, that’s been a policy and a dynamic that we’ve worked on from certainly even the previous administration, working to try to get that happening,” said Bruce, the State Department spokesperson.

The refugee program, which enabled former Afghan government officials, lawmakers, and civil society figures to immigrate to the US, is suspended for the next couple of months.

However, the suspension of the State Department's Afghan resettlement program has rattled Americans involved in or supporting the initiative.

“Right now, there's a lot of uncertainty,” said Shawn VanDiver, head of the Afghan Evacuation Association, a coalition of US veterans and advocacy groups that support Afghan resettlement.

'Nothing But Problems And Worries'

VanDiver is now lobbying the US Congress to remove the “complete stop” Trump’s executive orders have put on Afghan resettlement. He says that Congress had authorized Afghan resettlement through December 2027.

“President Trump needs to listen to the voices,” he said, pointing to the bipartisan support in Congress, veterans and service members, who want the immigration of Afghans to continue.

In a statement on March 18, the Afghan Evacuation Association said the ambiguity surrounding the immigration of Afghans “is unnecessary and cruel”. It called on Washington to provide “clear and unequivocal answers” to its wartime Afghan allies.

Afghans Paying A 'Huge Sum Of Money' To Leave Pakistan Amid Crackdown
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In media statements and letters, scores of lawmakers have urged President Trump to “fully restore humanitarian and refugee protections for our Afghan allies.”

Several courts across the United States are hearing cases regarding refugee and foreign aid suspensions. Some have issued injunctions against Trump’s executive orders.

A State Department spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “At this time, no decisions have been made” about its Afghan relocation program.

The spokesman said the department is “considering” the future of its Afghan relocation program, officially called Enduring Welcome and the Office of the Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts (CARE).

The spokesperson noted that it “continues to provide life-sustaining support to Afghan allies and partners previously relocated to our overseas case-processing platforms.”

In Islamabad, Muzoon has little understanding of how his future will unfold amid the domestic US wrangling over the fate of Afghans seeking immigration to the country.

He hopes to avoid being deported back to Afghanistan. He wants to move to the United States to send his daughter to school, treat his wife’s depression, and seek some treatment for his heart ailment.

“I have nothing but problems and worries,” he said.

UN Children's Agency Calls On Taliban To Lift Ban On Girls' Education

Afghan girls demand the right to education. (file photo)
Afghan girls demand the right to education. (file photo)

The UN children’s agency has urged Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government to immediately lift a ban on girls' education beyond primary school, saying that if the ban continues until 2030 more than 4 million girls will have been deprived of their right to education.

Afghanistan's ban on girls' secondary education "continues to harm the future of millions of Afghan girls," UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said in a statement on March 22. “The consequences for these girls -- and for Afghanistan -- are catastrophic.”

The appeal by UNICEF comes as a new school year began in Afghanistan, where girls beyond sixth grade have been deprived of their right to education since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

The Taliban justifies the ban, saying the education of girls beyond the sixth grade doesn't comply with their interpretation of Shari’a law.

Russell called for all girls to be allowed to return to school.

“Afghanistan is the only country in the world that bans female secondary and higher education,” Russell said in the statement, adding that if the rights of young girls continue to be denied, “the repercussions will last for generations.”

She pointed out that the ban negatively impacts the health system, the economy, and the future of the nation.

“With fewer girls receiving an education, girls face a higher risk of child marriage with negative repercussions on their well-being and health,” she said.

The consequences of the ban will affect the number of female doctors and midwives, and this in turn will leave women and girls without crucial medical care.

UNICEF projects an estimated 1,600 additional maternal deaths and over 3,500 infant deaths because of the situation.

The Taliban has allowed limited exceptions to the ban in the health and education sectors, but these jobs come with severe restrictions and the number of women in the workforce continues to fall, according to the United Nations.

Pakistan hosted a global conference in January at which Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai condemned the state of women’s and girls' rights in Afghanistan as gender apartheid.

Yousafzai urged Muslim leaders not to "legitimize" the Taliban-led government and instead to "raise their voices" and "use [their] power" against the militant group's curbs on women and girls' education.

"Simply put, the Taliban do not see women as human beings. They cloak their crimes in cultural and religious justification," Yousafzai told the gathering in Islamabad.

With reporting by AP

American Glezmann Returns Home After 2-Year Detention In Afghanistan

US citizen George Glezmann (center) poses with Adam Boehler (second left) and Zalmay Khalilzad (second right) and Qatari diplomats in Kabul, Afghanistan, March 20, 2025, before departing to Doha, Qatar.
US citizen George Glezmann (center) poses with Adam Boehler (second left) and Zalmay Khalilzad (second right) and Qatari diplomats in Kabul, Afghanistan, March 20, 2025, before departing to Doha, Qatar.

George Glezmann, an American who was released from detention in Afghanistan on March 20, has arrived in the United States and been reunited with his wife, a State Department spokesperson said.

Spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said on March 21 that Ryan Corbett, another former American prisoner in Afghanistan who had been held in the same cell as Glezmann, was in a welcoming party for Glezmann at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington.

"After a brief ceremony, George and [his wife] Aleksandra flew to another location in the United States to rest and recover," Bruce told reporters at a regular State Department news briefing.

Glezmann, 66, was released from detention in Kabul following the first visit by a senior US official to Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power in the wake of the withdrawal of international troops from the war-torn country in August 2021.

Former US special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad said on X that he and Adam Boehler, a senior adviser at the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, met with Taliban officials in Kabul on March 20.

"We succeeded in obtaining the release of an American citizen, George Glezmann, after two years in detention in Kabul. The Taliban government agreed to free him as a goodwill gesture to [President Donald Trump] and the American people," Khalilzad said.

Details of the negotiations were not revealed. The United States, like most countries, does not recognize the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.

“I feel like born again,” Glezmann said on Fox News after arriving at Joint Base Andrews. “I’m just thankful. I’ve got no word to express my gratitude for my liberty for my freedom.”

Glezmann also thanked President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others who helped free him, he said on Fox News, recalling how he was abducted in the streets of Kabul and thrown "into a dungeon with no windows no nothing."

Boehler told Fox News he expects to see more Americans released.

“The Taliban understand that there is a new sheriff in town. That president Trump is that new sheriff and that’s why you are seeing something like this," he said.

One of the other US citizens being held in Afghanistan is Mahmood Habibi, who also has been held since 2022.

Mahmood Habibi remains in Taliban custody since being detained in August 2022.
Mahmood Habibi remains in Taliban custody since being detained in August 2022.

Glezmann, an airline mechanic from Atlanta, was taken into custody by Taliban authorities while on a tourist visit to Afghanistan in December 2022 and had been deemed wrongfully detained by the US government.

Rubio called Glezmann's release "a positive and constructive step" that was aided by officials in Qatar, which has often hosted negotiations between Washington and the Taliban.

"It is also a reminder that other Americans are still detained in Afghanistan," he added.

The release comes two months after two other Americans held in Afghanistan were exchanged for a Taliban man imprisoned for life in California on drug and terrorism charges.

Ryan Corbett and William McKenty were swapped for Khan Mohammed, who was sentenced to two life terms in 2008 and was incarcerated in a US prison.

Aid worker Corbett, 40, and Habibi, 37 -- who led the Afghan Aviation Authority under the previous Afghan government -- were detained separately in August 2022.

Undocumented Afghans In Iran Face Uncertain Future Amid New Restrictions

Afghan men stand near the Afghanistan-Iran border crossing of Islam Qala, on Nov. 24, 2021.
Afghan men stand near the Afghanistan-Iran border crossing of Islam Qala. (file photo)

Millions of Afghans in Iran face an uncertain future as Tehran prepares to implement sweeping restrictions that will cut off access to health care, education, housing, and other essential services for undocumented immigrants.

The new policy, set to take effect on March 21, has left many Afghans grappling with impossible choices between a hostile host country and an unstable homeland.

For Rasheed, an Afghan immigrant living in Iran, the consequences of these policies have already hit home.

Rasheed recently returned to Afghanistan after doctors in Iran refused to treat his elderly mother for her heart disease.

“I was told to return to Afghanistan because Afghans were not supposed to get any treatment here,” Rasheed recalled of his conversation with an official at a government hospital in Tehran.

Thousands of desperate Afghans make risky journeys into Iran to seek employment. (file photo)
Thousands of desperate Afghans make risky journeys into Iran to seek employment. (file photo)

“My mother’s condition was rapidly deteriorating, which prompted me to return to my country,” he told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi. Rasheed requested that his real name be withheld to protect his identity.

In Karaj, a city near Tehran, Ehsan Zia, another Afghan immigrant, is devastated that his two teenage daughters can no longer attend school.

“Our hopes have been dashed,” he told Radio Azadi. “Even here, my daughters are being deprived of education.”

Zia moved to Iran three years ago after the Taliban banned teenage girls from attending school following their return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. Despite having a legal visa to stay in Iran, Zia says he has been unable to enroll his daughters in school due to bureaucratic obstacles and shifting policies.

Who Will Be Affected By The New Policy?

Earlier this month, the Center for Aliens and Foreign Immigrants’ Affairs (CAFIA) at Iran’s Interior Ministry announced six categories of Afghans who will remain eligible for key services under the new rules.

These include Afghans registered as refugees, those with valid visas or work permits, former employees of the Western-backed Afghan government that was toppled by the Taliban, and families with school-going children who apply for visas.

A Taliban fighter checks passports at Afghanistan's Islam Qala border crossing with Iran.
A Taliban fighter checks passports at Afghanistan's Islam Qala border crossing with Iran.

Tehran has already deported more than 2 million Afghans over the past two years as part of a campaign targeting undocumented immigrants.

Nader Yarahmadi, head of CAFIA, defended the government’s move, telling the semiofficial ISNA news agency that “there is no obstacle to returning [to Afghanistan] due to the relative stability and declared policies of the current Afghan government.”

The United Nations' refugee agency, UNHCR, estimates that that some 4 million Afghans live in Iran, including more than 2 million undocumented migrants. Figures cited by Iranian officials and media vary widely, with some claiming that 8 million Afghans reside in Iran.

Iranian Film Casts Real Refugees To Show Plight Of Displaced Afghans
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Risking Tensions With The Taliban

The crackdown on undocumented Afghans has coincided with rising anti-Afghan sentiment in Iran. Impoverished Afghan migrants are often scapegoated for crimes, insecurity, and unemployment. Such views have fueled mob violence against Afghans as well as mass arrests and brutal treatment by Iranian police and border security forces.

“Cutting off basic services to migrants will disrupt the labor market and drive more people into the underground economy,” said Graeme Smith, senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Afghan migrants make up a significant portion of Iran’s labor force in agriculture and construction -- sectors that could suffer if undocumented workers are expelled en masse.

Smith also warned that Tehran’s policies could worsen tensions between Iran and Afghanistan. The Taliban government has already clashed with neighboring Pakistan over its treatment of Afghan refugees.

“The Taliban may feel provoked to respond, for example, with restrictions on water sharing,” Smith said, referring to a long-standing dispute over water rights.

Experts argue that Tehran’s approach could backfire, both economically and geopolitically. An isolated and heavily sanctioned Iran needs stable relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban government to expand trade ties, maintain border security, and build a more integrated regional economy.

“Not only will this cause suffering for the Afghans affected,” Smith noted, “but it’s a self-defeating policy for Tehran.”

American Glezmann Released By Taliban After Visit To Kabul By Senior US Official

US citizen George Glezmann (center) poses with Adam Boehler (second left) and Zalmay Khalilzad (second right) and Qatari diplomats in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, March 20, 2025, before departing to Doha, Qatar.
US citizen George Glezmann (center) poses with Adam Boehler (second left) and Zalmay Khalilzad (second right) and Qatari diplomats in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, March 20, 2025, before departing to Doha, Qatar.

US citizen George Glezmann has been released from detention in Kabul following the first visit by a senior US official to Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in the wake of the withdrawal of international troops from the war-torn country in August 2021.

Former U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad said in a post on X that after he and Adam Boehler, a senior adviser at the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, met with Taliban officials on March 20, the 66-year-old Glezmann was "on his way home to his family."

"We succeeded in obtaining the release of an American citizen, George Glezmann, after two years in detention in Kabul. The Taliban government agreed to free him as a goodwill gesture to [President Donald Trump] and the American people," Khalilzad said.

Details of the negotiations were not revealed. The United States, like most countries, does not recognize the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.

No mention was made of another US citizen being held by the Taliban, George Mahmood Habibi, who also has been held in Afghanistan since 2022.

Glezmann, an airline mechanic from Atlanta, was taken into custody by Taliban authorities while on a tourist visit to Afghanistan in December 2022 and had been deemed wrongfully detained by the US government.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio later confirmed the release, calling it "a positive and constructive step" that was aided by officials in Qatar, which has often hosted negotiations between Washington and the Taliban.

"It is also a reminder that other Americans are still detained in Afghanistan," he added.

The release comes two months after two other Americans held in Afghanistan were exchanged for a Taliban man imprisoned for life in California on drug and terrorism charges.

Ryan Corbett and William McKenty were swapped for Khan Mohammed, who was sentenced to two life terms in 2008 and was incarcerated in a US prison.

Aid worker Corbett, 40, and Habibi, 37 -- who led the Afghan Aviation Authority under the previous Afghan government -- were detained separately in August 2022.

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