Lithuania’s prime minister has said it’s “a hybrid attack” -- hundreds of weather balloons flying across the border from Belarus, causing airport chaos. But the incidents also point to a long-standing, large-scale smuggling network that allegedly has high-level links in Minsk.
Flying at an altitude of some 13 kilometers (around 43,000 feet) the balloons grew so numerous in late October that they forced several airport closures, affecting around 140 flights and 20,000 passengers.
On October 29, NATO and European Union member Lithuania closed its border with Belarus for a month, with Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene saying this could be extended for “as long as necessary.”
But the balloons themselves are not entirely new.
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Their appearance in the skies above the two countries dates from around the same time that Lithuanian authorities introduced a crackdown on trucks smuggling cigarettes across the border.
Rewind to 2023, and Lithuanian customs officers seized 11.9 million packs of cigarettes. That year, they started rolling out new X-ray control systems at checkpoints. It was also the year that the Lithuanian border service reported three balloons arriving with contraband cigarettes.
Last year, the numbers told a different story: just 2.3 million cigarette packs seized by customs, as smugglers started using different means including drones, rafts, and 226 reported balloons.
This year, the balloon numbers have grown further, with 546 balloons reported between January and October. Border guards believe this method now accounts for 80 percent of all cigarettes smuggled across the border.
Syarhey Besarab, a Belarusian chemist and science popularizer, told RFE/RL’s Belarus Service that a balloon capable of carrying a cargo of 40-50 kilograms would cost around 500 euros ($578).
A balloon with smuggled cigarettes from Belarus lands in Lithuania, October 2025
This would amount to around 1,500 packets of cigarettes with a street value of some 3,450 euros. There is also relatively little chance of the balloons blowing off course.
"The wind blowing on the surface and at altitude are two very different things. Up there, the wind is constant, which is why the balloons are raised to such a height,” said Besarab.
These are sizeable helium balloons flying in large numbers. For example, on the night of October 3-4, Lithuania reported the arrival of 25 balloons from the Belarusian side.
“It is impossible to launch such balloons en masse in Belarus unnoticed by the special [security] services -- it is fantasy,” Besarab added.
His comments echoed remarks by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, who said last month “it is quite obvious that special structures, the [Belarusian] KGB, are involved in the sale of cigarettes by companies that produce official products, as well as products intended for the illegal market.”
Belarus has long been identified as a source of international cigarette smuggling.
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Back in 2016, researchers at Milan University, in Italy, released a study called The Belarusian Tobacco Illicit Trade Hub. It found that, as well as counterfeit cigarettes, there was also a roaring trade in “illicit whites” -- “cigarettes manufactured legally in one country but normally intended for smuggling into countries where they are normally unavailable on the legal market.”
It gave a breakdown of the main markets where contraband Belarusian brands were being sold, including Germany (30 percent), Poland (22.6 percent), Britain (17.8 percent), and Italy (9.7 percent).
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Nearly 10 years later, the trade continues. Sources who spoke to RFE/RL’s Belarus Service reported seeing Belarusian cigarette brands being sold illegally in Lithuania, Germany, and France.
Groups on the Telegram messenger app are used for buying and selling. In one group, an individual was looking to buy Belarusian NZ brand cigarettes in bulk in Helsinki, Finland. Other groups focused on Spain, Portugal, Germany, and other EU countries.
The switch to balloons and the disruption it has caused have made the smuggling a more visible political problem. This has become even more urgent after two Russian military aircraft violated Lithuanian airspace on October 23, as well as unknown drones spotted near airports recently.
Belarus denies involvement in sending the balloons and has condemned the decision to close the border. On November 11, Belarusian authoritarian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko called for bilateral talks on reopening the border, but Lithuania said it would remain closed until the balloons stopped flying.
Darius Antanaitis, a reserve officer in the Lithuanian Army and media commentator, told RFE/RL the closure was the best way to force Minsk to change tack.
"Many Belarusians work in Lithuania and transfer the money they earn in Lithuania to Belarus, replenishing the Lukashenko regime’s budget,” he said.
“When Lithuania closes border crossings, the Lukashenko regime feels social, political, and economic pressure.”